2021 AMG Mercedes F1 Team

[mstar]

I don't want to be the pessimist in here, but..... I think Max will be WDC this Sunday.

Without wanting to get into the rights or wrongs - it's rather simple; Lewis needs a win or best case finish ahead of Max, but within the points. From the other point of view - all Max has to do is beat Lewis or make sure both don't score points.

I've been following the Missed Apex podcast and there seems to be some info that Mercedes could have an advantage at this race due to the rear-wing problem RedBull is facing. This makes me believe that RedBull will throw everything into qualifying and make sure Max qualifies on the front row to give him every chance possible. This could be from setting up the car to favor one-lap pace to perhaps even gambling on a different tire in Q2. Perhaps even splitting it with Perez or using him to their advantage.

Given Verstappen can race pretty much how he likes and go for high-risk maneuvers, I see a very dangerous race ahead to the point where he has track position, any maneuver or potential overtake could be extremely dangerous. So I don't know... I somehow think the odds slightly favor Max.

Anyway, just wanted to vent a bit before the big race on sunday. On a better note; the contructors throphy is all but guaranteed at least.

No. The points are the race. Race Pace will be the key. NOT qualy. Points are won on the sunday. You need to give the driver a car to fight on Sunday not saturday. Alain Prost commented on the same. You have to put your strengths into the race, Merc need good race pace on the C3, and with straight line speed they have it gives them most strategic and on track possibilities. Its pointless qualy on pole when the person behind have so much pace they can undercut/overcut OR overtake you on track.

THis is why i think RB will shift and concentrate on Race pace for Max. They need to give him a car to fight mercs and that may mean going lower downforce IF for whatever reason he has to pass lewis he needs to do it. Also protect him from Lewis. Going the total laptime route may also work (i.e get pole and pull a lead) but it relies on mercs being slower in the tight sections, but i think the laptime in the tight sections be too close so i don't expect them to take this risk.

This race is always and WILL be all about TRACK POSITION and giving you the race car to fight with more on track and off track possibilities. This race maybe won on simple out laps or in laps. So having a car which can perform on new and worn tyres maybe crucial.

[Gillian]

The usual consensus is Hamilton sacrifices a bit of qualifying pace and sets the car up for the race. That's then why Bottas can keep up in qualifying but not the race. Some are of the opinion Bottas just plain sucks (something I don't agree with at all).

I think this is a very interesting topic and something that makes F1 highly interesting.

I read an interesting article that touched on this. Some drivers - Alonso and Hamilton mentioned - are able to live with the rear tyres going off without losing lap time. Others, and Bottas was mentioned here, struggle as the tyres wear. This is why Bottas can be as quick as Hamilton in qualifying but usually falls back in races. He often has good lap time after a tyre change too as the rears are able to stay with the fronts.

Pedro dela Rosa stated that he saw this first hand when working with Alonso and Hamilton - both are able to deal with a rear that is deteriorating without losing lap time.

Do you have a link for that? I would love to read that!

[mstar]

The usual consensus is Hamilton sacrifices a bit of qualifying pace and sets the car up for the race. That's then why Bottas can keep up in qualifying but not the race. Some are of the opinion Bottas just plain sucks (something I don't agree with at all).

I think this is a very interesting topic and something that makes F1 highly interesting.

I read an interesting article that touched on this. Some drivers - Alonso and Hamilton mentioned - are able to live with the rear tyres going off without losing lap time. Others, and Bottas was mentioned here, struggle as the tyres wear. This is why Bottas can be as quick as Hamilton in qualifying but usually falls back in races. He often has good lap time after a tyre change too as the rears are able to stay with the fronts.

Pedro dela Rosa stated that he saw this first hand when working with Alonso and Hamilton - both are able to deal with a rear that is deteriorating without losing lap time.

Do you have a link for that? I would love to read that!

This was from DLR when he was commentating on the groove tyres. It was because lewis and alonso can adapt the driving style completely to compensating with a loose/less grippy rear. Its also down to diff control which every driver can do these days. Kimi is another who is VERY good on worn rear tyres.

[Phil]

IMO - if RB knowingly has a car deficit, the best play is to go for track position and that means focusing on qualifying. Track position will be powerful, because the onus is on the overtaking driver, not the defending one. Given how the Saudi race unfolded - i think making sure to stick it on pole or at least the front row gives them more options than psossibly facing two Mercedes ahead of them at the start….

[mstar]

IMO - if RB knowingly has a car deficit, the best play is to go for track position and that means focusing on qualifying. Track position will be powerful, because the onus is on the overtaking driver, not the defending one. Given how the Saudi race unfolded - i think making sure to stick it on pole or at least the front row gives them more options than psossibly facing two Mercedes ahead of them at the start….

I think the opposite. You need to have the best race pace, as this gives you a lot more possibilities in the race from undercut/overcut and on track passing. If you concentrate on qualy come race day you may have limited ammo to fight. If mercs are close to RB in the twister sections than it really make max a sitting duck BUT that maybe all max needs he has points and wins advantage so he maybe can risk a pole and try and escape and hope that when lewis arrives he can defend aggressively and if needed afford contact.

[PlatinumZealot]

I don't want to be the pessimist in here, but..... I think Max will be WDC this Sunday.

Without wanting to get into the rights or wrongs - it's rather simple; Lewis needs a win or best case finish ahead of Max, but within the points. From the other point of view - all Max has to do is beat Lewis or make sure both don't score points.

I've been following the Missed Apex podcast and there seems to be some info that Mercedes could have an advantage at this race due to the rear-wing problem RedBull is facing. This makes me believe that RedBull will throw everything into qualifying and make sure Max qualifies on the front row to give him every chance possible. This could be from setting up the car to favor one-lap pace to perhaps even gambling on a different tire in Q2. Perhaps even splitting it with Perez or using him to their advantage.

Given Verstappen can race pretty much how he likes and go for high-risk maneuvers, I see a very dangerous race ahead to the point where he has track position, any maneuver or potential overtake could be extremely dangerous. So I don't know... I somehow think the odds slightly favor Max.

Anyway, just wanted to vent a bit before the big race on sunday. On a better note; the contructors throphy is all but guaranteed at least.

What Mercedes can do there is to set Bottas to have a go at pressuring Max while Lewis hangs back 3 seconds to save tyres. If RedBull realises what's happening then pits Max, Valterri can follow Max into the pits while Lewis can go long.

[Big Tea]

Remember guys. Neither driver has to win, just finish infront of the other. I know this is both unlikely and impossible without team chicanery, but it is not often a win is not the main result required, although no doubt it is the best option

[NathanOlder]

IMO - if RB knowingly has a car deficit, the best play is to go for track position and that means focusing on qualifying. Track position will be powerful, because the onus is on the overtaking driver, not the defending one. Given how the Saudi race unfolded - i think making sure to stick it on pole or at least the front row gives them more options than psossibly facing two Mercedes ahead of them at the start….

I dont think setting up for Qualy will be anywhere near as beneficial in Abu Dhabi as it was in SA. In Saudi moat teams were struggling to switch the tyres on fast enough. Going aggressive on setup meant you could get the tyre working straight away so use the best of the tyre with minimal fuel. in Abu Dhabi, this will be less likely with the softer tyres and less time flat out just going through low demand curves. If RedBull are more than 2 tenths off in qualy pace, they are in big big trouble in my opinion.

[NathanOlder]

IMO - if RB knowingly has a car deficit, the best play is to go for track position and that means focusing on qualifying. Track position will be powerful, because the onus is on the overtaking driver, not the defending one. Given how the Saudi race unfolded - i think making sure to stick it on pole or at least the front row gives them more options than psossibly facing two Mercedes ahead of them at the start….

I think the opposite. You need to have the best race pace, as this gives you a lot more possibilities in the race from undercut/overcut and on track passing. If you concentrate on qualy come race day you may have limited ammo to fight. If mercs are close to RB in the twister sections than it really make max a sitting duck BUT that maybe all max needs he has points and wins advantage so he maybe can risk a pole and try and escape and hope that when lewis arrives he can defend aggressively and if needed afford contact.

But if after friday running you realise you are behind Mercedes on race pace by a good half a second per lap, you have no way of being competitive in the race. then you are forced to try something radical to gain track position like RedBull did in Saudi. But you compromise your tyre life massively which is exactly what happened. Come the ene of the race Ocon was faster than Max as Max had no tyre left.

[Gillian]

I read an interesting article that touched on this. Some drivers - Alonso and Hamilton mentioned - are able to live with the rear tyres going off without losing lap time. Others, and Bottas was mentioned here, struggle as the tyres wear. This is why Bottas can be as quick as Hamilton in qualifying but usually falls back in races. He often has good lap time after a tyre change too as the rears are able to stay with the fronts.

Pedro dela Rosa stated that he saw this first hand when working with Alonso and Hamilton - both are able to deal with a rear that is deteriorating without losing lap time.

Do you have a link for that? I would love to read that!

This was from DLR when he was commentating on the groove tyres. It was because lewis and alonso can adapt the driving style completely to compensating with a loose/less grippy rear. Its also down to diff control which every driver can do these days. Kimi is another who is VERY good on worn rear tyres.

Thank you, appreciate it.

[ringo]

I don't want to be the pessimist in here, but..... I think Max will be WDC this Sunday.

Without wanting to get into the rights or wrongs - it's rather simple; Lewis needs a win or best case finish ahead of Max, but within the points. From the other point of view - all Max has to do is beat Lewis or make sure both don't score points.

I've been following the Missed Apex podcast and there seems to be some info that Mercedes could have an advantage at this race due to the rear-wing problem RedBull is facing. This makes me believe that RedBull will throw everything into qualifying and make sure Max qualifies on the front row to give him every chance possible. This could be from setting up the car to favor one-lap pace to perhaps even gambling on a different tire in Q2. Perhaps even splitting it with Perez or using him to their advantage.

Given Verstappen can race pretty much how he likes and go for high-risk maneuvers, I see a very dangerous race ahead to the point where he has track position, any maneuver or potential overtake could be extremely dangerous. So I don't know... I somehow think the odds slightly favor Max.

Anyway, just wanted to vent a bit before the big race on sunday. On a better note; the contructors throphy is all but guaranteed at least.

No. The points are the race. Race Pace will be the key. NOT qualy. Points are won on the sunday. You need to give the driver a car to fight on Sunday not saturday. Alain Prost commented on the same. You have to put your strengths into the race, Merc need good race pace on the C3, and with straight line speed they have it gives them most strategic and on track possibilities. Its pointless qualy on pole when the person behind have so much pace they can undercut/overcut OR overtake you on track.

THis is why i think RB will shift and concentrate on Race pace for Max. They need to give him a car to fight mercs and that may mean going lower downforce IF for whatever reason he has to pass lewis he needs to do it. Also protect him from Lewis. Going the total laptime route may also work (i.e get pole and pull a lead) but it relies on mercs being slower in the tight sections, but i think the laptime in the tight sections be too close so i don't expect them to take this risk.

This race is always and WILL be all about TRACK POSITION and giving you the race car to fight with more on track and off track possibilities. This race maybe won on simple out laps or in laps. So having a car which can perform on new and worn tyres maybe crucial.

Add to that tyre deg. which in some way is basically race pace. Everytime Hamilton overtakes Max it's because of tyre deg. The overall pace of the Merc is lower, but it maintains its pace across more laps than the redbull in Max hands. This is why I feel Hamilton is setting up the car really well. His race pace window is not just over 10 or 20 laps. His pace holds on for 30 laps in most cases and it's in those regions where he overtakes Max.
If Max gets on pole Lewis can do a nice safe overtake on the straight. Though I feel Max will dirty drive like what he did in silverstone. The accident took attention away from how he was driving in the previous corners and straight. Wheel banging on the straight to intimidate and weaving. Expect max to repeat that tactic. It can clip Ham wing or damage the floor. So even what we think is safe may not be safe.
Another point is when Hamilton does overtake... He needs to be on the inside. He can do this by selling Max a dummy, or outdragging him from they exit the corner before the straight.

[Jolle]

IMO - if RB knowingly has a car deficit, the best play is to go for track position and that means focusing on qualifying. Track position will be powerful, because the onus is on the overtaking driver, not the defending one. Given how the Saudi race unfolded - i think making sure to stick it on pole or at least the front row gives them more options than psossibly facing two Mercedes ahead of them at the start….

I think the opposite. You need to have the best race pace, as this gives you a lot more possibilities in the race from undercut/overcut and on track passing. If you concentrate on qualy come race day you may have limited ammo to fight. If mercs are close to RB in the twister sections than it really make max a sitting duck BUT that maybe all max needs he has points and wins advantage so he maybe can risk a pole and try and escape and hope that when lewis arrives he can defend aggressively and if needed afford contact.

But if after friday running you realise you are behind Mercedes on race pace by a good half a second per lap, you have no way of being competitive in the race. then you are forced to try something radical to gain track position like RedBull did in Saudi. But you compromise your tyre life massively which is exactly what happened. Come the ene of the race Ocon was faster than Max as Max had no tyre left.

There will be many more dimensions in this race, because it’s a winner takes all. When sims give you a solution that you’re .5 of a second slower, and you don’t try anything, you lost. Better go for a softer tyre and hope for lengthy safety cars or something and underfuel the car slightly.

[dans79]

Since the race thread is locked, this is probably the second best place to post it.

[Swifty]

I know I may sound goofy, but I'm so excited! Difficult to picture a more perfect track for Mercedes:

Straights and available racing lines on point.

Just gotta keep pushing, lads!

[Tvetovnato]

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/red- ... s/6862976/

Finally a clear confirmation. I’ve been amazed how many considers Abu Dhabi to suddenly be a Red Bull track after they won last year, when Merc has dominated every race there since 2014. Never base assumptions on outliers..