2022 Bahrain Grand Prix - Sakhir, March 18 - 20

[Vanja #66]

I understand where you're coming from, however I still don't agree, and more people who analysed telemetry are leaning more towards my conclusions:
https://old.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... _analysis/

This guy basically came to identical results as what I was observing trough testing, practice and finally qualifying:
- Ferrari has most downforce, medium drag levels and highest power output
- Red bull has lower downforce, very low drag and a bit lower power output (vs ferrari)
- Mercedes also has lower downforce, but very high drag and possibly not so high engine power (could be skewed by unreasonably high drag at this point)

my 2 cents

Decent analysis from reddit, thanks for sharing. I've noticed now a new rear wing on RB, looks a bit shallower than before, so that has a drag influence. Still, based on top speeds (323.2 and 316.6km/h) and assumption of 10HP more power of Ferrari, I got Ferrari with 8% more drag. That's very unrealistic in my view, and quite big. If an assumption is Honda being 10-15HP up on Ferrari, then Ferrari has 4-5% more drag. I think that's much closer to be honest.

Ferrari's good acceleration comes from torque, which is in line with their lower engine RPM compared to Honda and Mercedes, so I don't really see that as an indication of higher overall power. Then again, I'm not experienced in telemetry analysis, so I might have all this backwards in my head... Is there any other indication of power and drag relations other than top speed and acceleration you are looking at?

In any case, I'm happy the power and aero differences are small enough for drivers to show their worth and strategies to come back to the spotlight. We can hope to have good racing at the front, especially when Mercedes solves those issues and joins the top.

[Stu]

Any idea why the Mercedes were so much slower in Q3? Was the track that much changed and too cold? Or did they change the settings, ride height or anything, on their car, before parc fermé?

Parc ferme operates from the start of the qualifying session. Tyre pressures and front flap changes (?) are all that is allowed once Q1 starts.

[tpe]

What surprises me is that some members think that a 0.5-0.9 deficit to the best time is not a big issue for Merc and it will cover it, while in the past a deficit of 0.3 to Merc from either RB or Ferrari was "impossible" to eliminate during a season (with no budget caps).

With this, I just want to point that we still have no clue why they lack this 0.5 and at the same time we have one more parameter to consider: How much money they have left in their budget. All the teams, not just Merc. It is quite possible that they will cover this deficit. But it's equally possible that they don't have the budget to do so.

We will need some races to figure it out. Personally, I am concentrated on this race which is exciting, not just because Ferrari & RB are close, but because it's the first race of an new era. We have no idea how the porpoising will affect drivers over the distance of a race.

Let's have some patience.

[Stu]

I understand where you're coming from, however I still don't agree, and more people who analysed telemetry are leaning more towards my conclusions:
https://old.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... _analysis/

This guy basically came to identical results as what I was observing trough testing, practice and finally qualifying:
- Ferrari has most downforce, medium drag levels and highest power output
- Red bull has lower downforce, very low drag and a bit lower power output (vs ferrari)
- Mercedes also has lower downforce, but very high drag and possibly not so high engine power (could be skewed by unreasonably high drag at this point)

my 2 cents

Decent analysis from reddit, thanks for sharing. I've noticed now a new rear wing on RB, looks a bit shallower than before, so that has a drag influence. Still, based on top speeds (323.2 and 316.6km/h) and assumption of 10HP more power of Ferrari, I got Ferrari with 8% more drag. That's very unrealistic in my view, and quite big. If an assumption is Honda being 10-15HP up on Ferrari, then Ferrari has 4-5% more drag. I think that's much closer to be honest.

Ferrari's good acceleration comes from torque, which is in line with their lower engine RPM compared to Honda and Mercedes, so I don't really see that as an indication of higher overall power. Then again, I'm not experienced in telemetry analysis, so I might have all this backwards in my head... Is there any other indication of power and drag relations other than top speed and acceleration you are looking at?

In any case, I'm happy the power and aero differences are small enough for drivers to show their worth and strategies to come back to the spotlight. We can hope to have good racing at the front, especially when Mercedes solves those issues and joins the top.

Amen to that! Fingers crossed for it be close enough between 4-5 teams that good strategy and pit-stop work can be the difference between winning and ‘first-loser’ ((TM) - Ron Dennis), potentially that gives 8-10 winners.

[silver]

Any idea why the Mercedes were so much slower in Q3? Was the track that much changed and too cold? Or did they change the settings, ride height or anything, on their car, before parc fermé?

The track definitely fell away for most of the drivers. Only Leclerc made a bigger gain, seemingly because he didn't get a good lap in Q2. Then Bottas made decent gain. Verstappen, Sainz, Perez made small gains. Hamilton, Bottas, Magnussen, Alonso, Russell (also due to error) and Gasly were all slower than Q2.

[AriaanGert]

Any idea why the Mercedes were so much slower in Q3? Was the track that much changed and too cold? Or did they change the settings, ride height or anything, on their car, before parc fermé?

Parc ferme operates from the start of the qualifying session. Tyre pressures and front flap changes (?) are all that is allowed once Q1 starts.

I know that. And I heard the explanation about out lap procedure. But they got it wrong 2x in Q3 with a huge effect. In Q2 however they were unexpectedly close. I was looking for a better explanation.

[ferkan]

I understand where you're coming from, however I still don't agree, and more people who analysed telemetry are leaning more towards my conclusions:
https://old.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... _analysis/

This guy basically came to identical results as what I was observing trough testing, practice and finally qualifying:
- Ferrari has most downforce, medium drag levels and highest power output
- Red bull has lower downforce, very low drag and a bit lower power output (vs ferrari)
- Mercedes also has lower downforce, but very high drag and possibly not so high engine power (could be skewed by unreasonably high drag at this point)

my 2 cents

Decent analysis from reddit, thanks for sharing. I've noticed now a new rear wing on RB, looks a bit shallower than before, so that has a drag influence. Still, based on top speeds (323.2 and 316.6km/h) and assumption of 10HP more power of Ferrari, I got Ferrari with 8% more drag. That's very unrealistic in my view, and quite big. If an assumption is Honda being 10-15HP up on Ferrari, then Ferrari has 4-5% more drag. I think that's much closer to be honest.

Ferrari's good acceleration comes from torque, which is in line with their lower engine RPM compared to Honda and Mercedes, so I don't really see that as an indication of higher overall power. Then again, I'm not experienced in telemetry analysis, so I might have all this backwards in my head... Is there any other indication of power and drag relations other than top speed and acceleration you are looking at?

In any case, I'm happy the power and aero differences are small enough for drivers to show their worth and strategies to come back to the spotlight. We can hope to have good racing at the front, especially when Mercedes solves those issues and joins the top.

In FP2 situation was very much the other way around. Ferrari faster in all speed traps (especially acceleration zones) bar top speed where RB was 2kph up. But in corners, Max took 6 faster, while Leclerc took only 2.

Hard to say, as AT is a bit below Ferrari teams accross all speed traps as well as top speed.

[saviour stivala]

Any idea why the Mercedes were so much slower in Q3? Was the track that much changed and too cold? Or did they change the settings, ride height or anything, on their car, before parc fermé?

The track definitely fell away for most of the drivers. Only Leclerc made a bigger gain, seemingly because he didn't get a good lap in Q2. Then Bottas made decent gain. Verstappen, Sainz, Perez made small gains. Hamilton, Bottas, Magnussen, Alonso, Russell (also due to error) and Gasly were all slower than Q2.
[/quo

They all upped thier ante. but some had more ante to up then others.

[Stu]

Any idea why the Mercedes were so much slower in Q3? Was the track that much changed and too cold? Or did they change the settings, ride height or anything, on their car, before parc fermé?

Parc ferme operates from the start of the qualifying session. Tyre pressures and front flap changes (?) are all that is allowed once Q1 starts.

I know that. And I heard the explanation about out lap procedure. But they got it wrong 2x in Q3 with a huge effect. In Q2 however they were unexpectedly close. I was looking for a better explanation.

Other than the changes that are allowed, the only other differences are track and weather/wind conditions, these tend to affect everyone equally.
With the field being very tight, operational efficiencies make a huge difference.

[Wouter]

https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... lerc-pole/

Translated by GT:

Ferrari beats Red Bull last corner against Verstappen

Leclerc: "I was struggling with the tires. It was difficult to get them in the window and get the laps together. Only in the last attempt did the tires feel a little better."
"I had my problems. That's why I made a mistake here and there. I was particularly slow in the first sector."

Helmut Marko applauds the red competition: "The Ferrari engine runs like crazy. You can see that in the customer teams."
"Unfortunately, Max lost one and a half tenths in the last corner," regrets sports director Marko. "Even with Perez, the last corner didn't fit."
"Either the front tires were too cold at the beginning of the lap or the rear tires were too warm."
"The falling track temperatures have cost us."

[Stu]

https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... lerc-pole/

Translated by GT:

Ferrari beats Red Bull last corner against Verstappen

Leclerc: "I was struggling with the tires. It was difficult to get them in the window and get the laps together. Only in the last attempt did the tires feel a little better."
"I had my problems. That's why I made a mistake here and there. I was particularly slow in the first sector."

Helmut Marko applauds the red competition: "The Ferrari engine runs like crazy. You can see that in the customer teams."
"Unfortunately, Max lost one and a half tenths in the last corner," regrets sports director Marko. "Even with Perez, the last corner didn't fit."
"Either the front tires were too cold at the beginning of the lap or the rear tires were too warm."
"The falling track temperatures have cost us."

HM really makes me laugh, “you can see that with the customer teams”…

Ferrari made a huge improvement mid-season last year with their new HV power store, the customer teams did not get that until this year. So, yes, Ferrari seem to have done a good job with the ICE part of the PU; but the customer teams are getting that plus the 0.5 seconds per lap (as I recall) from the power store.

[Chuckjr]

One swallow doesn’t make a summer anymore than one race defines an F1 field or one quali session determines a car’s potential. This first race won’t tell us who’s overall fastest, but will give shape and context to who is at the sharp end and who has their work cut out for themselves. It’s all very exciting. Nice to have that back in the sport.

1 - Max
2 - Charles
3 - Fred

I think there will be more car carnage than usual due to the tall wheels and shrouds, unfamiliarity of the drivers with the unique way these cars behave, and simply closer competition at the top. I can easily see some carnage at the sharp end tomorrow. It’s why I’m thinking Fred just may find his way to the podium. Yellow flags will keep the field stacked and out-of-sync pit stops will also help shuffle the field. I think one of the Mercs and one of the Ferrari’s take each other out.

Holy smokes the doom and gloom in the Macca team thread is something to behold! They are setting fire to the team already! My god did I just read someone say McLaren customer cars will go bankrupt, and the team will be sold?!? After one quali session!!? Get a hold of yourselves people. Seriously. It’s simple. Macca needs to call Ron Dennis stat, apologize, and hand him the keys. You’ll be winning within 3 years with your own Porsche engine or something equivalent at the next engine regs change. You know this. I know this.

The irony of Bottas out-qualifying Russell is palpable. Shame as I think Russell may have had it in him to out quali the golden calf. But hey, maybe next week.

Crossing my fingers Fred has good race pace. The Alpine design seems fundamentally good. Is the Renault engine reliable is another question entirely.

The hopium of unlocking the supposed zero pod potential is at addiction levels in the Merc punter’s think tank (team thread). Oddly, it’s the polar opposite of some Macca fans who are ready to walk away from F1 forever as “they can’t take it anymore”. Lol. Anyway, the supposed magical potential of the zero pods is yet to be observed, but I have to be honest and say I’m not convinced there’s magical potential in them. Vanja with his post help me understand the Merc better, and I’m not convinced there’s all kinds of speed just waiting to be unleashed. The ominous words from Günter and also Ferrari stating they looked at zero pods and said no thanks convinces me the wider pod is the way to go for this Formulae. Newey also chose wider pods, so there’s that.

Of course, Ferrari and Red Bull have updates coming by the truckload, and they will only get faster from here and already have balanced their car basic. Merc has not, is on the back foot, still struggling somewhat with porpoising, still struggling to find time, still struggling to understand their car, and may have a pos engine to boot...at least the bottom half of the field agrees with the engine part.

Thank you F1 tech and all moderators.

Good luck to all drivers this year. Hoping for a safe and fair season with lots of different winners and tight on track battles.

PS, I guess Charles and Max have some history still to resolve...

https://youtu.be/L42H4vkbHYc

[oT v1]

Just caught up with Quali on catch up. Very happy with the gaps and the opportunity to see a Bottas/Gasly/Kmag showing some speed i hope this continues for at least a few races before it’s a simple 2 x 2 x 2… look to the grid. Props to Albon too!

If there was any team(s) that could you could bank in catching up it would be Merc (RB) so very excited for the chance to see 3 teams in the mix for the front, it’s been too long.

For the race, the first corner is going to be crazy but I hope the lock-up predictions for this early stage formula aren’t true! Stay positive Ferrari, Sainz might inherit the win if they mix up strat to squeeze RB.

Top 5

Sainz
Vers
Lecl
Perez
Ham

[izzy]

Lewis v Checo could be good. They both race clean and are good with tyres, and both those could make the difference today

[mclaren111]

One swallow doesn’t make a summer anymore than one race defines an F1 field or one quali session determines a car’s potential. This first race won’t tell us who’s overall fastest, but will give shape and context to who is at the sharp end and who has their work cut out for themselves. It’s all very exciting. Nice to have that back in the sport.

1 - Max
2 - Charles
3 - Fred

I think there will be more car carnage than usual due to the tall wheels and shrouds, unfamiliarity of the drivers with the unique way these cars behave, and simply closer competition at the top. I can easily see some carnage at the sharp end tomorrow. It’s why I’m thinking Fred just may find his way to the podium. Yellow flags will keep the field stacked and out-of-sync pit stops will also help shuffle the field. I think one of the Mercs and one of the Ferrari’s take each other out.

Holy smokes the doom and gloom in the Macca team thread is something to behold! They are setting fire to the team already! My god did I just read someone say McLaren customer cars will go bankrupt, and the team will be sold?!? After one quali session!!? Get a hold of yourselves people. Seriously. It’s simple. Macca needs to call Ron Dennis stat, apologize, and hand him the keys. You’ll be winning within 3 years with your own Porsche engine or something equivalent at the next engine regs change. You know this. I know this.

The irony of Bottas out-qualifying Russell is palpable. Shame as I think Russell may have had it in him to out quali the golden calf. But hey, maybe next week.

Crossing my fingers Fred has good race pace. The Alpine design seems fundamentally good. Is the Renault engine reliable is another question entirely.

The hopium of unlocking the supposed zero pod potential is at addiction levels in the Merc punter’s think tank (team thread). Oddly, it’s the polar opposite of some Macca fans who are ready to walk away from F1 forever as “they can’t take it anymore”. Lol. Anyway, the supposed magical potential of the zero pods is yet to be observed, but I have to be honest and say I’m not convinced there’s magical potential in them. Vanja with his post help me understand the Merc better, and I’m not convinced there’s all kinds of speed just waiting to be unleashed. The ominous words from Günter and also Ferrari stating they looked at zero pods and said no thanks convinces me the wider pod is the way to go for this Formulae. Newey also chose wider pods, so there’s that.

Of course, Ferrari and Red Bull have updates coming by the truckload, and they will only get faster from here and already have balanced their car basic. Merc has not, is on the back foot, still struggling somewhat with porpoising, still struggling to find time, still struggling to understand their car, and may have a pos engine to boot...at least the bottom half of the field agrees with the engine part.

Thank you F1 tech and all moderators.

Good luck to all drivers this year. Hoping for a safe and fair season with lots of different winners and tight on track battles.

PS, I guess Charles and Max have some history still to resolve...

https://youtu.be/L42H4vkbHYc

Well Said Sir...