2021 Cost Cap Rumours and Speculation

[basti313]

If that’s what brawn’s says will happen then why are there multiple different penalties for a minor and major breach?

Most likely to create uncertainty in the mind of the teams, and to provide flexibility depending on the nature of the breach.

Two examples:
1) Two teams on the budget cap limit are in a tight battle at the end of the season, and one team decides to implement two upgrades worth 1.4-million / 1% because the defined penalty for such a breach is worth it to potentially win a constructors placing.
2) A team might just have screwed up and gone over by 1.4-million for less underhand reasons.

I don't think people would want the above examples treated the same for penalties, and therefore some flexibility is needed.

The simple error is that there is no live tracking. I have a live tracking in my SAP system. I know exactly what we spend until end of this year. There is a small uncertainty for things like plane tickets, but I also know exactly the amount I can spend on plane tickets.

The FIA is live tracking the CFD or windtunnel usage as well as the summer break. Why can't they see the financials? It must be clear that once the budget is over the wind tunnel is off, the autoclaves stopped. The penalty can and must be immediate.

[Arcanum]

I think the variables are likely larger to deal with than it seems.

Next years car will be in the build process, and that includes long lead-time items such as a chassis for crash testing. So you won't be turning the autoclaves off entirely, but prioritising what goes through them.

People won't be a fixed cost, either. There will be resignations which frees up budget, hiring which may not arrive when the team wants that reduces budget, you may have to increase salary for some to prevent them leaving. Then there are other variables, like some team members may not need to travel to the last few races, or more might need to travel. You might have a nightmare wet FP1-FP2-FP3 where a load of wings are broken so more need to be flown out or created for the final few races.

On a 600-person F1 team, with a lot of variables, I think the budget will get juggled right up until the final month, where parts for next years car are pushed out or pulled in depending on how close the cap is.

Of course, this is to manage right up to the budget limit. If someone is significantly breaching then that should be visible earlier, including to the FIA, and your point is valid.

[fourmula1]

I imagine this is difficult to audit and track and penalize? Teams likely have big time salaries dedicated solely to finance and budget. How much do you think they spend on salaries dedicated to making/finding/moving money? This is F1 and there will inevitably be teams spending money to create cap space more aggressively than others.

Only thing to do is come down hard on any breach I suppose. Teams will tread more carefully and/or work harder to hide it.

[Wouter]

From a RBR insider. The administrator of the Max Verstappen site:

"Nothing is coming out today (from the FIA) about the budget cap. That will be after the weekend at the earliest."
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ShiftUp schreef op wo, 05 oktober 2022 15:14u

Er komt vandaag niets naar buiten (vanuit de FIA) over de budgetcap. Dat zal op z'n vroegst na het weekend zijn.

[Mandrake]

In the rumors of Mercedes and Ferrari they were "giving away" information that their budget for car upgrades is 2m / 4m. That sounds incredibly low to me, is that accurate?

[Gillian]

I think a lot of Merc/Lewis fans that believe everything that rolls out of Toto's mouth are going to be disappointed. Especially the ones who think last years championship will be handed to Lewis.

Does anyone think that will happen? At the most, Red Bull would lose their points but the drivers wouldn't - there is precedent for this in 2007, of course, where McLaren had their points removed but the drivers kept theirs. Realistically, the team will be fined.

Going forward, it seems to me that the best approach to overspending is to reduce the allowed budget going forward for any "naughty" team. For example, Team A overspends by $2m, so reduce their budget allowance by $2m for the next 3 years. That would focus the teams on not overspending as it would impact them for more years than they would gain from it.

That's a reasonable and sensible approach! Or even reduce their budget for the following year by x * 5 and leave it at that. Would also be fair to have more oversight on the team overspending. Check their books more regularly. Disqualify a team if it's overspending for consecutive years.

[Gillian]

From a RBR insider. The administrator of the Max Verstappen site:

"Nothing is coming out today (from the FIA) about the budget cap. That will be after the weekend at the earliest."
.

ShiftUp schreef op wo, 05 oktober 2022 15:14u

Er komt vandaag niets naar buiten (vanuit de FIA) over de budgetcap. Dat zal op z'n vroegst na het weekend zijn.

Oh that's a bummer. Would have been nice to get it all cleared up. If Red Bull has overspend as much as rumours suggest they should be punished. I personally don't believe it. For me it feels like this is all politics to overshadow another championship title win by Verstappen. I have seen zero evidence yet but a lot of speculation.

[Wouter]

From a RBR insider. The administrator of the Max Verstappen site:

"Nothing is coming out today (from the FIA) about the budget cap. That will be after the weekend at the earliest."
.

ShiftUp schreef op wo, 05 oktober 2022 15:14u

Er komt vandaag niets naar buiten (vanuit de FIA) over de budgetcap. Dat zal op z'n vroegst na het weekend zijn.

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Oh that's a bummer. Would have been nice to get it all cleared up. If Red Bull has overspend as much as rumours suggest they should be punished. I personally don't believe it. For me it feels like this is all politics to overshadow another championship title win by Verstappen. I have seen zero evidence yet but a lot of speculation.

I think exactly the same.

[organic]

[henry]

Seems like the search for long grass is over. Release of the certificates, and any other information, can now safely be done away from the cameras.

[langedweil]

It wasn't. Actually every one else in the world understood the specific rule the same, except of one team.

But in 2020 there where 9 teams that understood perfectly well that an adjustable suspension shouldn't be part of their route towards gains. One team though just thought differently ...

A number of fans of the sport don't understand that the system didn't affect the suspension as determined by the rules of the sport. That's why the rules were changed at the end of the season.
But, hey, details...

I know what happened, and it's not about DAS in itself; it was aimed at the "yeah, but everyone else didn't do it!" stance.
I still think DAS was a brilliant concept, and MB surely played their cards very well to keep FIA informed from day 1 (whether FIA completely understood is a different question). I'm not sure it would have been declared legal as easily by FIA when MB would have developped DAS quitly and secretly. But that's a totally different discussion.
Point is, any ruling within F1 is immediately challenged at the grey areas; well, if it's grey, choose for it to white or black.

[Wouter]

From a RBR insider. The administrator of the Max Verstappen site:

"Nothing is coming out today (from the FIA) about the budget cap. That will be after the weekend at the earliest."

.
Oh that's a bummer. Would have been nice to get it all cleared up. If Red Bull has overspend as much as rumours suggest they should be punished. I personally don't believe it. For me it feels like this is all politics to overshadow another championship title win by Verstappen. I have seen zero evidence yet but a lot of speculation.

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I think exactly the same.

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Now Albert Fabrega says it too.

[GrizzleBoy]

I have a feeling this will be an, "announcement of an announcement" type thing and not provide any solid information to anybody on any side.

Yep, called it.

I think I'll make another call and say the budget cap is already a failure.

Either a few teams have done something outside the intended scope and the FIA will accept.

Or they won't accept but make the penalties so inconsequential that makes the reward outweigh the risk.

If everyone was in compliance all the certificates would have been sent today as planned.

If there was an intention to hold anyone to account they would either serve or not serve certificates and allow appeals and whatever later as all deadlines have now passed.

I smell another FIA sh*tshow brewing.

[Just_a_fan]

From a RBR insider. The administrator of the Max Verstappen site:

"Nothing is coming out today (from the FIA) about the budget cap. That will be after the weekend at the earliest."
.

ShiftUp schreef op wo, 05 oktober 2022 15:14u

Er komt vandaag niets naar buiten (vanuit de FIA) over de budgetcap. Dat zal op z'n vroegst na het weekend zijn.

Oh that's a bummer. Would have been nice to get it all cleared up. If Red Bull has overspend as much as rumours suggest they should be punished. I personally don't believe it. For me it feels like this is all politics to overshadow another championship title win by Verstappen. I have seen zero evidence yet but a lot of speculation.

I think it should be out in the open. The FIA needs to be transparent on this subject if it is to have any trust from the sport going forward. If a team has breached the budget cap then hit them hard and move on. If it affects a title then so be it - a title secured with a large budget excess is a title gained illegally and thus is void. All they are doing by not announcing it is leaving the sport to carry on with rumours and chatter rather than concentrating on the sport and the possibility of a title being decided this weekend. They are overshadowing any possible title wins this weekend, especially if they are then going to announce punishments that might take that title away, even if just for a few more weeks (a points deduction, for example, would do that and would change the dynamic for the rest of the season). Typical FIA, really.

[henry]

But in 2020 there where 9 teams that understood perfectly well that an adjustable suspension shouldn't be part of their route towards gains. One team though just thought differently ...

A number of fans of the sport don't understand that the system didn't affect the suspension as determined by the rules of the sport. That's why the rules were changed at the end of the season.
But, hey, details...

I know what happened, and it's not about DAS in itself; it was aimed at the "yeah, but everyone else didn't do it!" stance.
I still think DAS was a brilliant concept, and MB surely played their cards very well to keep FIA informed from day 1 (whether FIA completely understood is a different question). I'm not sure it would have been declared legal as easily by FIA when MB would have developped DAS quitly and secretly. But that's a totally different discussion.
Point is, any ruling within F1 is immediately challenged at the grey areas; well, if it's grey, choose for it to white or black.

I don’t think they did understand it. It took them two attempts to create the wording that banned it. And I agree with you that it was brilliant.