2021 Cost Cap Rumours and Speculation

[rogazilla]

I don't see the actual amount breached in the FIA announcement. How did people start to throw out the 7.x million dollar figures around? Do you just take145m and multiply by 5%?

[mwillems]

As it relates to libel by Ferrari and Mercedes, I suppose they are the ones now who do not have to worry.
For the individuals who came up with conspiracies on insider information etc, who have now shifted to trying to interpret how the FIA conducts audits and if they need to do over their math.. I think now that we have official communication, we do not resort to conspiracy theories.
Mercedes and Ferrari have nothing to do with Redbull's troubles.
The results were clearly delayed to allowed the team to focus on winning in Japan and to end this year's episode of F-1.
When the curtains have closed, then the sport will resume being a sport and apply its regulations as intended.

The breach is considerable, over 7 million, and an apt punishment must be meted out for it.

It will not be financial punishment, nor future handicaps. It's likely to be applied to the year in which the breach occurred, which is normal for most sports.

Constructors points will not impact redbull, as they have already stated it was not their goal. Their target was the driver's championship, and this also may have been their motivation to attempt to spend more than allowed and try to be smart about it by classifying the spends outside of what is policed.

It's anyone's guess how 7 million more can add performance to the car or operations. But the FIA may not even try to get into that detail as accountants can classify and juggle figures around. Even things like pit crew efficiency and design of wheel change equipment giving those 0.5 second advantages in pitstops was a material advantage that paid dividend repeatedly.

"The breach is considerable, over 7 million, and an apt punishment must be meted out for it."

Are you assuming? I don't think the FIA have released the amount, have they?
Reality is, if they did massively overspend and the FIA want to ensure that they don't have to go back over last years title debate again, then they will hide it and not release the numbers.

I have no hope that the FIA will take appropriate action, but I do hope that the whistle-blower is able to release Red Bulls numbers for the world to see, as I don't think the FIA will. Then let it be plain as day what happened.

[Hoffman900]

I don't see the actual amount breached in the FIA announcement. How did people start to throw out the 7.x million dollar figures around? Do you just take145m and multiply by 5%?

Two conversations. No one said they overspent that much. The issue is that the FIA considers up to that “minor”, which is a wholly other conversation and ridiculous.

[djones]

Realistically, I think the penalty should be a 10-15% reduction in the cost cap for 2 extra year, 2023 and 2024, and if they breach it in either of those years they are thrown out of the championship

Probably a bit excessive.

It'll likely be a sliding scale of proportion.

Not excessive enough in my opinion. If the punishment is not harsh then it was not only worth it, it will be worth it for other teams too.

10-15% reduction in their cost cap for 2023 and 2024 in exchange for certainly one, maybe two championships? Cheap at twice the price.

[chrisc90]

Its probably not even anywhere close to 7m dollars. Ringo probably just took the up to 5% and went straight in for the maximum amount to make his post look better. It could be something like 100,000 or 500,000$ over the cap. It would still fall into the same group of overspending.

[mwillems]

Well, the results are in & those named in the rumours are the ones that have fallen foul of the auditing process. One looks as though they are preparing to appeal.

The punishment should be suitable to the extent of the breach, but if the findings are upheld at the appeal the punishment should be increased substantially.

Will we ever find out just how much the breach is (likely not); this would be short-sighted on the part of the FIA not to disclose publicly.

These budget rules need to be enforced, but the FIA also really needs to get a grip on information leakage.

How long does the current Concorde Agreement have left to run?

It certainly wouldn't be short sighted if it ignited the subject of the 2021 drivers champion again, I suspect that the FIA will today take any hit they need to to ensure they do not go back over that any more than they have to. And given how accurate the rumours were, one wonders if the final numbers were massaged down to avoid any need to answer the question of the 21 champion.

I do hope the numbers are leaked, it's about time there was some oversight and transparency at the FIA, even if it came through non authorised channels.

[chrisc90]

Realistically, I think the penalty should be a 10-15% reduction in the cost cap for 2 extra year, 2023 and 2024, and if they breach it in either of those years they are thrown out of the championship

Probably a bit excessive.

It'll likely be a sliding scale of proportion.

Not excessive enough in my opinion. If the punishment is not harsh then it was not only worth it, it will be worth it for other teams too.

10-15% reduction in their cost cap for 2023 and 2024 in exchange for certainly one, maybe two championships? Cheap at twice the price.

That's a BIG IF the 2021 budget was partially allocated towards the 2022 car. There is no certainty in that.

Its likely to be something that RB have left out in the exclusions section where the FIA said it should be included. I think I remember a recent interview from Christian saying there is some grey area as to what is/isnt included.

That would explain the procedural section and the overspend.

Of course, they will both have to sit down and discuss interpretations of the rules and exact what is/isnt covered. And we all know what happens when you get different interpretations of the rules.

[mwillems]

If the punishment has no teeth, then all the other teams will decide a minor breach is required to compete

My prediction: A fine, say 10-20 million, and a 200 point dock in constructor points for last year and this year. FIA says "we punished" in order to save face, but not severely enough to change any outcome. RB still 2nd last year, and with this year being already 165 points ahead, and a fast car, they could realistically still win it this year.

I suspect they will just fine RB and the fine will be paid from next years budget, in the same way that Ferrari lost only future performance for their engine shenanigans. I expect the fine will be something along the lines of twice the overspend, once to cover the spend and once to claw back any advantage, but I think everyone knows it would have tipped them over the edge in the championship so they will not care.

Just enough to not harm anyone or too much but enough to say they did something and try to keep some of the sports reputation.

it will be interesting to see how Ross Brawn responds to this when he is finally asked, I don't feel that he is someone who will bend the truth too much.

The FIA could easily say that now everyone knows, no more chances - this one was a marker. I wouldn't assume what is possible.

[RZS10]

[...]
That's a BIG IF the 2021 budget was partially allocated towards the 2022 car. There is no certainty in that.
[...]

It has been mentioned here multiple times that it's not a seasonal or car budget but one for the calendar year, so of course some of the budget will have been for the current car as some of it was designed and potentially even partially built in 2021 - there was even the entire conversation of who switched their focus to next year when and many thought RB would suffer in 2022 with how much they invested in 2021.

[ArcticWolfie]

Well, the results are in & those named in the rumours are the ones that have fallen foul of the auditing process. One looks as though they are preparing to appeal.

The punishment should be suitable to the extent of the breach, but if the findings are upheld at the appeal the punishment should be increased substantially.

Will we ever find out just how much the breach is (likely not); this would be short-sighted on the part of the FIA not to disclose publicly.

These budget rules need to be enforced, but the FIA also really needs to get a grip on information leakage.

How long does the current Concorde Agreement have left to run?

It certainly wouldn't be short sighted if it ignited the subject of the 2021 drivers champion again, I suspect that the FIA will today take any hit they need to to ensure they do not go back over that any more than they have to. And given how accurate the rumours were, one wonders if the final numbers were massaged down to avoid any need to answer the question of the 21 champion.

I do hope the numbers are leaked, it's about time there was some oversight and transparency at the FIA, even if it came through non authorised channels.

The whole cost cap is a farce anyway... and transparency??
Replacement ICE are not in the cap and 1st engine is a 10 place grid penalty and every additional ICE is just a 5 place grid penalty. Mercedes just casually replaced Hamilton's ICE last season with reliability woes excuse, but they suddenly ran 10s/lap (exaggerated of course) quicker than RBR and Ferrari. They spend millions more on ICE replacements than RBR overspent the cap.
And how do you explain Mercedes complaining about porpoising and literally 1 day after the FIA allowed a floor change, Mercedes comes with an upgraded floor! (Canada this year).

It's all a --- joke...

[Just_a_fan]

Its probably not even anywhere close to 7m dollars. Ringo probably just took the up to 5% and went straight in for the maximum amount to make his post look better. It could be something like 100,000 or 500,000$ over the cap. It would still fall into the same group of overspending.

It could be 100k, it could be 5 million. Only the FIA - and presumably the team - know what figure they've arrived at.

The former figure is enough to add performance in a small upgrade. The latter figure would add perhaps half a second.

Both of those figures would be "minor" under the regs. Adding 0.5s more than your competitors can do over a season is not insignificant.

If the overspend was deliberate, then it's straight up cheating just as running under weight would be.

[ringo]

Realistically, I think the penalty should be a 10-15% reduction in the cost cap for 2 extra year, 2023 and 2024, and if they breach it in either of those years they are thrown out of the championship

The penalty can be applied to 2021. I don't see the justification reducing their cost cap by 15% in two years.
At most 2021 and 2022 can be punished. 2022 I feel can be mostly symbolic. Because the team can push to win the last set of races in preparation to take the blow of being disqualified from a few races in 2022. Max should still be able to keep his 2022 championship and redbull their constructors.
But the FIA cannot understate the intent to cheat. I think that stands out more than anything. The team literally intended to have a car designed beyond the limits of the regulations to compete with cars that were within the rules. This is a massive sporting and ethical tragedy. It cannot be overlooked.
Nonetheless the team should not be punished beyond 2022 I feel. It will really damage their reputation if we hear about this team being punished in 2024. My opinion anyway.

[Just_a_fan]

If the punishment has no teeth, then all the other teams will decide a minor breach is required to compete

I suspect they will just fine RB and the fine will be paid from next years budget, in the same way that Ferrari lost only future performance for their engine shenanigans. I expect the fine will be something along the lines of twice the overspend, once to cover the spend and once to claw back any advantage, but I think everyone knows it would have tipped them over the edge in the championship so they will not care.

Just enough to not harm anyone or too much but enough to say they did something and try to keep some of the sports reputation.

it will be interesting to see how Ross Brawn responds to this when he is finally asked, I don't feel that he is someone who will bend the truth too much.

The FIA could easily say that now everyone knows, no more chances - this one was a marker. I wouldn't assume what is possible.

That would be entirely unacceptable because any overspend during 2021 will have had a beneficial effect on the development of the 2022 car and thus also give a head start on subsequent cars that are developed from it.

There can be no "that was just a first go and doesn't count" approach. Not unless the FIA wants to see themselves either in court or facing several other teams saying "we're not going to pay any attention to you any more and will also spend over the limit in order to catch up".

[chrisc90]

What would people suggest happens if the breach was one of the grey areas in the rulebook?

[ringo]

I feel they will keep the punishments in 2021 and apply a very light slap for 2022.

By grey areas do you mean the fiscal ones or technical related to work on the car?

There is so much juggling of which ledger to place expenses that FIA will never unravel the truth. They can only look on the overall spend. Imagine trying to separate 2022 development from 2021, when it's all labour hours? No one can know when an engineer crosses over to do 2022 work during his day when he is still working on 2021 work.

And I did not pull 7 million out of a hat. This number is reported by other media sources. I only post these kinds of things from media sources.