2021 Cost Cap Rumours and Speculation

[dans79]

What in the world does the W03 have to do with the W04.

It's Monaco, if the car is good enough to get on pole its going to win. Even with an engine issue (Ric 2018), or a stupid strategy (Ham 2019), you are going to win, because your race pace is almost irreverent.

I can do this all day

By all means go ahead, explain away

• Lewis qualifying P3 in Australia, and finishing 5th in the race.
• Lewis qualifying P4 in Malaysia, and finishing 3rd in the race.
• Lewis qualifying P1 in China, and finishing 3rd in the race.
• Lewis qualifying P4 in Bahrain, and finishing 5th in the race.
• Nico qualifying P1 in Spain, and finishing 6th in the race.

That's 2 poles and 2 podiums before the tire test even took place.

Not to mention Spain 2013 was a weird race as everyone stopped at least 4 times, most stopped 5 times!
https://www.racefans.net/2013/05/12/201 ... pit-stops/

[TimW]

If we are willing to accept that any potential advantage gained has a carry on to following years (which I think it has to some extent) then it follows that the disadvantage from the penalty is not a one time thing, but it will also carry on to following years, it won’t be just “a one time thing”.

The important question is whether the punishment "resets" the advantage gained from any alleged wrongdoing. If they gained, for example, 0.5s from the wrongdoing but the punishment limits their potential gain over the next 12 months to 0.3s, the other teams would need to be able to gain 0.8s over the next 12 months to be back at level with them. That would be a big gain to find for those other teams in one season. So the original gain is more than the punishment removes and the team have a nett benefit from their financial misdemeanour. If the other teams can easily find 1s over the next 12 months then the punishment would be just that - a punishment.

It is just rhetorics that the advantage gained will carry on for years, it should diminish rather quickly.

If we take the full 2 million breach as additional development and an average development budget of 10-12 million(as stated by binotto iirc) that would be about a 2 month advantage gained.
Any advantage will dilute naturally over time, because teams monitor and copy each other closely. So catching up the two months will (if they do a good job) take less than two months, because the educating effect of seeing what RB has done.
Of course e.g Mercedes has more catching up to do because they took a wrong development path for 2022(and persisted on it).
Furthermore there is the diminishing returns effect. So the 2 million is not truly two months. It is additional development, but without additional validation. There was no extra cfd, wind tunnel or track time. So it was less efficient.

Now the other teams have a relative advantage in wind tunnel time, and they have been shown the right direction. Now they 'simply' need to do a good job. Because cheating or not, RB still did a great job developing in the right direction. Ferrari was the only team that was less than 2 months behind(and maybe even ahead except for some floor issue)

[diffuser]

Mercedes solved a massive, persistent issue by deliberately breaking the rules and proceeded to dominate the sport for years.

It couldn't be more relevant

Like I said it isn't relative cause all the players were different. Wolff only Left Williams in Jan 2013, I'd very surprised if he didn't have gardening leave. The major driving force of those first 5 championships was the PU edge and not the tires. Also 2 wrongs don't make it right.

Isn’t that like a team now doing a test day or filming day with new parts in order to gain an advantage.

Basically constitutes to cheating

I reread an artile about it ..
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/what ... t/3219584/


So they were asked by Pirelli and the FIA to run the test, they were the hardest on the 2013 tires.

Plus "Complicating matters further is the fact that the 2014 cars will make very different demands on the tyres due to new aerodynamic rules and totally different power delivery from the new hybrid engine and drivetrain units. They will have much higher torque, for example."

Not sure how applicable all this was for the 2014 car.

[F1Supporter]

What in the world does the W03 have to do with the W04.

Costa said himself it was a brand new car and the genesis for their subsequent car development. It still was terrible on tyres until the illegal test. It won races after the illegal test. It won poles before and fell back into the pack, post illegal test it won three (3) grand prix.

Mercedes cheated and benefited from that cheating for years and years.

I can do this all day

In your words,

"What in the world does the" W04 have to do with the W05 ?

It was a brand new car, Brand new power unit, Brand new regulations, Brand new tyres.

Or are you honestly trying to claim all of Mercedes success stems back to the 2013 tyre test ?

[MadMax]

Mercedes using oil burning was obviously an intent to cheat, but FIA couldn't find a way to prove it, while engineers from other manufacturers know. Then FIA had to tighten up the rules around how much oil was allowed to be used.

If only Mercedes were alone in doing that. But, wow, they weren't. They were all doing it.

[MadMax]

To play the Devil's advocate here, how do people feel about the illegal tyre test that Mercedes held in 2013?

The car went from a notorious tyre eater to winning the next race. Mercedes stopped development of the car and the next season won the first of 8 constructors in a row with just the 7 drivers championships in a row with cars that were near the front for tyre wear.

I'm not a big fan of going that far back in F1 history. When Bernie left, F1 came out of the dark ages. We need to make sure that calls keep getting more appropriate for the crime.

Mercedes solved a massive, persistent issue by deliberately breaking the rules and proceeded to dominate the sport for years.

It couldn't be more relevant

As someone said in support of Red Bull: correlation is not an indicator of causation.

[f1jcw]

Have you played much sport yourself?

What you just said is very much at the center of what you do in competitive sports. Pushing the limits and blurring lines.

Athletes cheat straight up with PED all the time and have done so forever. That's sport

I think you have the wrong idea about sports, cheating isn't to be appluaded.

You're just extremely naïve to the reality.

I bet you never played sport at a competitive level

You have some seriously mixed up ideas of sport. I am not naive, just don't lower myself to think cheating is acceptable or welcomed, if you do, don't expect me or others to agree with it.

[RonMexico]

What in the world does the W03 have to do with the W04.

Costa said himself it was a brand new car and the genesis for their subsequent car development. It still was terrible on tyres until the illegal test. It won races after the illegal test. It won poles before and fell back into the pack, post illegal test it won three (3) grand prix.

Mercedes cheated and benefited from that cheating for years and years.

I can do this all day

In your words,

"What in the world does the" W04 have to do with the W05 ?

It was a brand new car, Brand new power unit, Brand new regulations, Brand new tyres.

Or are you honestly trying to claim all of Mercedes success stems back to the 2013 tyre test ?

The W04 was the first competitive car built by Mercedes. Costa has said himself it was the most important car that they built as they knew it was good and proved their processes were correct. Ownership had only recently changed, lots of things made that car important. The W03 was thrown in the bin. The processes used to design the W04 were used to design the W05 ect. None of this is news

All of this is in response to the proportionality of a punishment stemming from breaking the rules.

I brought up something illegal Mercedes did in the past which absolutely resulted in a lasting advantage to highlight the pearl clutching going on here over a perceived lasting advantage that will be enjoyed by red bull after the cost cap breach.

[RonMexico]

I'm not a big fan of going that far back in F1 history. When Bernie left, F1 came out of the dark ages. We need to make sure that calls keep getting more appropriate for the crime.

Mercedes solved a massive, persistent issue by deliberately breaking the rules and proceeded to dominate the sport for years.

It couldn't be more relevant

As someone said in support of Red Bull: correlation is not an indicator of causation.

Did they gain from the illegal tyre test or not?

[e30ernest]

To play the Devil's advocate here, how do people feel about the illegal tyre test that Mercedes held in 2013?

The car went from a notorious tyre eater to winning the next race. Mercedes stopped development of the car and the next season won the first of 8 constructors in a row with just the 7 drivers championships in a row with cars that were near the front for tyre wear.

From what I can remember, Mercedes said that they had Charlie Whiting's approval to run that test with their current car (Ferrari did the same test but with an older car). I think that part about Charlie's approval was why they only got a reprimand. Charlie's approval was not binding, but the team seeking permission showed they did not have fraudulent intent so they got off lightly.

[MadMax]

Mercedes solved a massive, persistent issue by deliberately breaking the rules and proceeded to dominate the sport for years.

It couldn't be more relevant

As someone said in support of Red Bull: correlation is not an indicator of causation.

Did they gain from the illegal tyre test or not?

Did they gain from the test? No idea. Neither have you.

They asked permission for the test and permission was granted, so "illegal" is a somewhat confrontational term.

[mendis]

Mercedes using oil burning was obviously an intent to cheat, but FIA couldn't find a way to prove it, while engineers from other manufacturers know. Then FIA had to tighten up the rules around how much oil was allowed to be used.

If only Mercedes were alone in doing that. But, wow, they weren't. They were all doing it.

Mercedes showed the way. Because FIA had no clue, others followed suite. Same thing happened with flexing too. Red Bull lead the way and others followed.

[mwillems]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/ ... rumbles-on

It's worth a read, an on the fence piece discussing the for us or against us extremes and allegiances plauging F1 at the moment, including some of the media.

[dans79]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/ ... rumbles-on

It's worth a read, an on the fence piece discussing the for us or against us extremes and allegiances plauging F1 at the moment, including some of the media.

This bit pretty much sums it up.

Red Bull’s approach has been perceived as displaying a lack of tolerance, a confrontational attitude of a binary nature, exacerbating the divide between fans.

One senior figure in the sport views the current situation with concern. “They seem to have a view that if you are not with us you are against us,” he said. “It leaves no middle ground, because you are either in opposition or allegiance.”

It kind of reminds me of a saying I once heard. "If you go looking for war, eventually you'll find one."

[e30ernest]

It kind of reminds me of a saying I once heard. "If you go looking for war, eventually you'll find one."

It kind of reminds me of current politics in some countries as well. In fact, Horner strikes me as someone who is using the playbook of some of these politicians particularly heavy use of whataboutism. And it can be seen in the arguments here as well.

You can say the same is being done by other team principals as well (like Toto, Binotto or Zak) but to me at least, Horner is the one pushing this the hardest.