Mercedes W14 Speculation Thread

[De Jokke]

Hmm, if you look at how long it took them to understand their issues with the car and also no upgrades on the car or barely for the first 5 number of races. I do think it has cost them a lot.
I hope for an unlocking of potential which the flawed concept of W13 prevented but I doubt it.
Also still warry of the fact that Abu Dhabi was again a huge gap to the top and again behind Ferrari, but also here, the flawed concept might prevented them doing better than what they showed.

I believe it stopped them using the developments, but they would not have everyone standing about with nothing to do just waiting for a fix. I apologise I did not explain myself properly (which does not bean I an not just plain wrong anyway )

, lol.
I think they were looking sedulous for a solution or should I say solutions. Some worked, some didn't (also due to lack of correlation) and took even more time to solve (hence no updates).

[jordanb]

How on earth can Merc make up for this:

https://www.gpblog.com/en/news/171505/w ... pment.html

W14 will be a step forward but will still be lagging behind, I think.

I do not believe half of it, or at least, half of the way it is being presented there.

It is quite possible that merc were working on some aspect of it for six months, but no way was six months taken up by nothing but working on the problem alone.
Just the difference in the car from season start to season end shows there has been much development, even though the porpoising undoubtedly interfered with the development path.

Usually, it takes time for behind the scenes stories to come out. It's entirely possible that Mercedes did spend 6 months in understanding and fixing the porpoising problem. Without understanding and solving, they couldn't have put a step forward on W14. They couldn't have junked the concept of W13 as there was a real danger of repeating it if not fully understood. From a layman perspective, i did anticipate last year that it was going to be a pickled situation. Toto is simply setting the ground to lower the expectations. The W14 would be going into production now that would come for testing. So whatever timeline milestones they had set, they have arrived at last but one. Now when they look at the Achievements against Objectives of the W14 development, they probably get a sense of where they stand against what they estimate the competition would be at this stage. So I am not surprised Toto says they might be behind.

But then with FIA providing a helping hand that pulls back the competition, they should have been better served despite the loss of 6 months. If not for those FIA changes, W14 would be lagging far behind than it may probably be now.

[Venturiation]

Yeah, I think both fuel and engine oil is frozen but all other fluids can be developed iirc.

Very naive question from someone with zero engine knowledge- can performance gains of any real significance come from the fluids aside from fuel and engine oil?

Improving the friction modifying and thermal conductance properties of a gearbox oil can reduce friction in the gearbox and/or allow a smaller, lighter gearbox cooler, which also has less air resistance.

Improved coolant can allow higher operating temperature and smaller radiator. This has several positive knock-on effects for performance. Higher operating temperature allows for a smaller water cooler which weighs less, and has less air resistance. Higher operating temperature seems to make the combustion cycle more efficient as well. Something to do with the energy that is lost due to the temp difference between the working gases, and the engine block.

In years past, it was claimed that some were experimenting with burning coolant for combustion....but that's for another thread

Alot of articles keep saying that the fuel will be better, but could it be like this user explained on the engine threads?
There are some rumours about alot of changes in the gearbox and rear suspension so gearbox may be to improve the engine.

There were also theories during 2022 that Mercedes cars had problems that they couldn’t fix because of where the gearbox is positioned compared to other manufacturers

[AR3-GP]

Very naive question from someone with zero engine knowledge- can performance gains of any real significance come from the fluids aside from fuel and engine oil?

Improving the friction modifying and thermal conductance properties of a gearbox oil can reduce friction in the gearbox and/or allow a smaller, lighter gearbox cooler, which also has less air resistance.

Improved coolant can allow higher operating temperature and smaller radiator. This has several positive knock-on effects for performance. Higher operating temperature allows for a smaller water cooler which weighs less, and has less air resistance. Higher operating temperature seems to make the combustion cycle more efficient as well. Something to do with the energy that is lost due to the temp difference between the working gases, and the engine block.

In years past, it was claimed that some were experimenting with burning coolant for combustion....but that's for another thread

Alot of articles keep saying that the fuel will be better, but could it be like this user explained on the engine threads?
There are some rumours about alot of changes in the gearbox and rear suspension so gearbox may be to improve the engine.

There were also theories during 2022 that Mercedes cars had problems that they couldn’t fix because of where the gearbox is positioned compared to other manufacturers

I don't think that there will be any significant improvement in the area discussed above. Development in this area is already very mature. I only made this comment to highlight the importance of those areas.

The most cost effective improvements for Mercedes right now are going to come from aerodynamics improvements and weight reduction

[Mosin123]

Improving the friction modifying and thermal conductance properties of a gearbox oil can reduce friction in the gearbox and/or allow a smaller, lighter gearbox cooler, which also has less air resistance.

Improved coolant can allow higher operating temperature and smaller radiator. This has several positive knock-on effects for performance. Higher operating temperature allows for a smaller water cooler which weighs less, and has less air resistance. Higher operating temperature seems to make the combustion cycle more efficient as well. Something to do with the energy that is lost due to the temp difference between the working gases, and the engine block.

In years past, it was claimed that some were experimenting with burning coolant for combustion....but that's for another thread

Alot of articles keep saying that the fuel will be better, but could it be like this user explained on the engine threads?
There are some rumours about alot of changes in the gearbox and rear suspension so gearbox may be to improve the engine.

There were also theories during 2022 that Mercedes cars had problems that they couldn’t fix because of where the gearbox is positioned compared to other manufacturers

I don't think that there will be any significant improvement in the area discussed above. Development in this area is already very mature. I only made this comment to highlight the importance of those areas.

The most cost effective improvements for Mercedes right now are going to come from aerodynamics improvements and weight reduction

Would engine development costs not be seperate from the f1 teams budgets? they are different departments right? So the costs would be irrelevent to Mercs f1 team? I thought improvements that could be made via the engine would be high priority as its cost is out side the budget cap? so if they can get the FIA to approve a reliability upgrade that adds even 0.0001 % more would be worth while, its is free performance upgrade out side the budget cap.

( I think..... )

[georgekyr]

Yes there is a different budget for the engine manufacturers - $95million for the years between 2023-25.

[atanatizante]

Fuel and engine oil were homologated at the start of the 2022 season (march 1) so I can't help but wonder how Petronas intend to bring new fuel.

I have seen multiple reports saying this , but other ones saying fuel can still be changed, maybe once a year like the chassis?

https://i.imgur.com/TsHu6ya.png

Appendix 4 defines the exceptions for ''reliability''. Beyond those exceptions, no changes in the listed components until 2026 (when the new PU regs go live, obviously).

Where did you get those rules?

Let me quote some statements from some top FIA officials posted to Formula 1 official site: https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... lwPam.html

Quotes:

"The fuel revolution has already begun, with F1’s new generation of cars running on ‘E10’ fuel – a blend of 90% fuel and 10% renewable ethanol – this year. “The 10% of ethanol that we’re putting in now is entirely sustainable,” says Symonds. “There are lots of different types of ethanol, which vary in quality, but this is a true green ethanol – so fully sustainable.”"

...

"The fuel that F1 will run-in just over three years’ time will be unique and lab-created. “E fuels offer such a wonderful opportunity,” says Ross Brawn – F1’s Managing Director, Motorsports."

...

"Shifting from 10% renewable fuel in 2022 to 100% in just a few years is ambitious, as it requires increasing production of the product rapidly. But Symonds says F1 are on target."

Therefore I truly believe what that Italian journalist said regarding the new biofuel and the proof is both the above article but mostly based on those optimistic statements Hywel was saying regarding 2023 PU gains in their YT channel when they were reviewing the F1 2022 season...

Not to mention that based on my professional background I`m fully aware of the fuel importance and particularly in biofuel`s case when last year was rumoured that Petronas provided a less powerful fuel (I refer to that normal/common fuel which represents 90% of the total amount, apart from those 10 % biofuels). And the main reason behind that was that Exxon-Mobile received a little help from Oracle`s A.I. programs just to verify those tenths of millions of fuel formulas which needed to be tested in order to reach the best one regarding peak power output vs consumption. That`s why Marko said that Honda didn`t lose power in 2022 compared to the previous season, something that Merc PU guys (even Hywel if I`m not wrong) saying the opposite ...

And finally, I think that also engine oil could be yearly updated due to also fuel changes, which could also give them some gains, bearing in mind that the engine oil has at least 5 functions: lubrication, cleaning, corrosion prevention, improve sealing and last but not least for cooling the engine, the latter could bringing the biggest gains in my opinion for allowing them to both run the engine harder and also for increasing thermal/cooling engine/car efficiency...

[AR3-GP]

I have seen multiple reports saying this , but other ones saying fuel can still be changed, maybe once a year like the chassis?

https://i.imgur.com/TsHu6ya.png

Appendix 4 defines the exceptions for ''reliability''. Beyond those exceptions, no changes in the listed components until 2026 (when the new PU regs go live, obviously).

Where did you get those rules?

Let me quote some statements from some top FIA officials posted to Formula 1 official site: https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... lwPam.html

Quotes:

"The fuel revolution has already begun, with F1’s new generation of cars running on ‘E10’ fuel – a blend of 90% fuel and 10% renewable ethanol – this year. “The 10% of ethanol that we’re putting in now is entirely sustainable,” says Symonds. “There are lots of different types of ethanol, which vary in quality, but this is a true green ethanol – so fully sustainable.”"

...

"The fuel that F1 will run-in just over three years’ time will be unique and lab-created. “E fuels offer such a wonderful opportunity,” says Ross Brawn – F1’s Managing Director, Motorsports."

...

"Shifting from 10% renewable fuel in 2022 to 100% in just a few years is ambitious, as it requires increasing production of the product rapidly. But Symonds says F1 are on target."

Therefore I truly believe what that Italian journalist said regarding the new biofuel and the proof is both the above article but mostly based on those optimistic statements Hywel was saying regarding 2023 PU gains in their YT channel when they were reviewing the F1 2022 season...

Not to mention that based on my professional background I`m fully aware of the fuel importance and particularly in biofuel`s case when last year was rumoured that Petronas provided a less powerful fuel (I refer to that normal/common fuel which represents 90% of the total amount, apart from those 10 % biofuels). And the main reason behind that was that Exxon-Mobile received a little help from Oracle`s A.I. programs just to verify those tenths of millions of fuel formulas which needed to be tested in order to reach the best one regarding peak power output vs consumption. That`s why Marko said that Honda didn`t lose power in 2022 compared to the previous season, something that Merc PU guys (even Hywel if I`m not wrong) saying the opposite ...

And finally, I think that also engine oil could be yearly updated due to also fuel changes, which could also give them some gains, bearing in mind that the engine oil has at least 5 functions: lubrication, cleaning, corrosion prevention, improve sealing and last but not least for cooling the engine, the latter could bringing the biggest gains in my opinion for allowing them to both run the engine harder and also for increasing thermal/cooling engine/car efficiency...

The fuel and oil is frozen through 2025. There is no new Petronas fuel or oil. It's not allowed. Page 162 of the '22 Technical regulations is your reference.

https://www.fia.com/regulation/category/110


Page 165 of the '23 technical regulations repeats this.

[jordanb]

It is surprising to see people not keeping the FIA regulations document for 2023 in hand while debating what is allowed and what is not. Despite these freezes are widely known since last year with layman-ish clarity, it's interesting to see people think there is still an avenue for performance upgrades on fuel and engine, beyond the strictly regulated reliability upgrades on engine components and none in fuel.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/rena ... /10417702/

Renault expects the FIA to get tougher with Formula 1 engine manufacturers in ensuring reliability upgrades do not boost performance.

[georgekyr]

I have seen multiple reports saying this , but other ones saying fuel can still be changed, maybe once a year like the chassis?

https://i.imgur.com/TsHu6ya.png

Appendix 4 defines the exceptions for ''reliability''. Beyond those exceptions, no changes in the listed components until 2026 (when the new PU regs go live, obviously).

Where did you get those rules?

Let me quote some statements from some top FIA officials posted to Formula 1 official site: https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... lwPam.html

Quotes:

"The fuel revolution has already begun, with F1’s new generation of cars running on ‘E10’ fuel – a blend of 90% fuel and 10% renewable ethanol – this year. “The 10% of ethanol that we’re putting in now is entirely sustainable,” says Symonds. “There are lots of different types of ethanol, which vary in quality, but this is a true green ethanol – so fully sustainable.”"

...

"The fuel that F1 will run-in just over three years’ time will be unique and lab-created. “E fuels offer such a wonderful opportunity,” says Ross Brawn – F1’s Managing Director, Motorsports."

...

"Shifting from 10% renewable fuel in 2022 to 100% in just a few years is ambitious, as it requires increasing production of the product rapidly. But Symonds says F1 are on target."

Therefore I truly believe what that Italian journalist said regarding the new biofuel and the proof is both the above article but mostly based on those optimistic statements Hywel was saying regarding 2023 PU gains in their YT channel when they were reviewing the F1 2022 season...

Not to mention that based on my professional background I`m fully aware of the fuel importance and particularly in biofuel`s case when last year was rumoured that Petronas provided a less powerful fuel (I refer to that normal/common fuel which represents 90% of the total amount, apart from those 10 % biofuels). And the main reason behind that was that Exxon-Mobile received a little help from Oracle`s A.I. programs just to verify those tenths of millions of fuel formulas which needed to be tested in order to reach the best one regarding peak power output vs consumption. That`s why Marko said that Honda didn`t lose power in 2022 compared to the previous season, something that Merc PU guys (even Hywel if I`m not wrong) saying the opposite ...

And finally, I think that also engine oil could be yearly updated due to also fuel changes, which could also give them some gains, bearing in mind that the engine oil has at least 5 functions: lubrication, cleaning, corrosion prevention, improve sealing and last but not least for cooling the engine, the latter could bringing the biggest gains in my opinion for allowing them to both run the engine harder and also for increasing thermal/cooling engine/car efficiency...

There are many misconceptions about renewable fuels. In my eyes, the term used by the EU official documents- renewable fuels- is the best one to use.
- You can make bioethanol, a bio-fuel, by utilizing energy crops.
- You can make renewable ethanol by using renewable hydrogen and biogenic CO2 (CO2 captured during biomass processes) or using CO2 directly captured from the air. Renewable hydrogen in most cases is considered to be produced using solar and/or wind energy along with water. This is considered an e-fuel. In many real world cases since direct air capture CO2 is not yet commercial and the value chains for biogenic CO2 are not advanced, CO2 captured from the use of fossil fuels (e.g., in steel industry) can be used for producing the synthetic fuel. In reality this approach enhances the overall resource efficiency, but it is NOT renewable.
Both the e-fuel and the biofuel are renewable.

Since we are transitioning to a new era beyond fossil fuels, many misconceptions still occur.

Let me put forward another dimension. Bio-ethanol many times contains traces of other chemicals due to the process followed to produce it and the used biomass stock. Anyone who wants further insights in this can read the following scientific publication. I am not getting into more details here.
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsomega.0c02360
You can easily see that many of the compounds presented in the article above are not part of the table included in Section 16.4 Composition of the fuel of the FIA regulation.

Synthetic ethanol can be pure ethanol with no traces of anything else. In F1, where all are trying to achieve any type of improvement even marginal, the exchange of bio-ethanol in the fuel to synthetic ethanol could provide benefits - there could even be a vice-versa scenario, which I consider very hard to exist.

Imagine finally if Petronas used bio-ethanol in their fuel last year and this year exchanged the bio-ethanol with a same spec synthetic ethanol. The tests according to the rule set would provide the same results as last year's fuel, but the new fuel could extract more power from the engine.

So nothing is black and white in F1. A freeze in a regulation can still provide windows of development fully in line with both the spirit and content of the regulation as I just showcased above for the fuel.

[atanatizante]

...

The fuel and oil is frozen through 2025. There is no new Petronas fuel or oil. It's not allowed. Page 162 of the '22 Technical regulations is your reference.

...

In principle you are right but this is just when you read the plain/non-technical/ from the point of just regulations wording, not from the technical perspective ...

There are at least 2 reasons: the first one is to have a 100% biofuel target for the 2026 season and the second reason is that from the technology/chemistry point of view, you can only theoretically switch from 10% to 100% biofuel. You have to have steps in between these years in order to both have a smooth transition with no power low or high peaks between manufacturers and also ensure there will be no reliability concerns for the ICE.

[AR3-GP]

...

The fuel and oil is frozen through 2025. There is no new Petronas fuel or oil. It's not allowed. Page 162 of the '22 Technical regulations is your reference.

...

In principle you are right but this is just when you read the plain/non-technical/ from the point of just regulations wording, not from the technical perspective ...

There are at least 2 reasons: the first one is to have a 100% biofuel target for the 2026 season and the second reason is that from the technology/chemistry point of view, you can only theoretically switch from 10% to 100% biofuel. You have to have steps in between these years in order to both have a smooth transition with no power low or high peaks between manufacturers and also ensure there will be no reliability concerns for the ICE.

The technical regulations are provided for you above. I'm not sure what is confusing. Fuel composition is frozen through 2025.

The 100% bio fuel that you refer to will only run on track in 2026. All development will take place in labs until then. There will not be any testing of 30%, 50%, 75% bio fuel compositions in an official Formula One competition in '23 to '25. I'm not sure where this theory has come from, but nonetheless the technical regulations reject it.

[F1Krof]

[pursue_one's]

When did you have to sign off on the first major components of the 2023 car?

Elliott: The chassis and the larger parts of the car were approved in mid-October. The fairing much later. The devil is in the details. We're building the aerodynamics around the rough framework of the car.


Did the bouncing come as a surprise to you?

Elliott: We knew that the Groundeffect cars of the past had this phenomenon, and we also talked about it in the design phase. We didn't expect there to be any problems at all, however, none of the simulations suggested how severe the problem would be. I think everyone has had that experience. It's very difficult to recreate the problem in the wind tunnel, and in CFD simulation it would be very expensive to create a computational model for it. That's why we didn't use the resources allowed by the regulations in CFD to simulate the bouncing.


How much development time did bouncing cost you?

Elliott: Normally, you identify your car's problems during winter testing and try to solve them by the first race. This time was different. Red Bull probably solved the problem the quickest. They found a solution at the end of testing. Others thought they had solved it, and then it came back. In our case, it was so dominant that we couldn't take care of different areas of the car at all.Normally, you're trying to not only find downforce, but also give your car a characteristic through the corners so the drivers can balance it how they want. That work is usually done during winter testing. That's when you work on setups. We had to postpone that. And once we solved the bouncing, we suddenly found there were other problems we had to solve.


In 2023, will you focus more on a larger working window than on maximum downforce?

Elliott: Our goals will be different than they were in 2022. Some of the problems stemmed from what aerodynamic goals we had set. We've already made changes, and there will be more. We hope that's enough to get us back to the front in 2023.


What were the other hidden problems?

Elliott: If I revealed them now, the competition would know too well about the solutions we found. The simplest answer is this: The car we gave our drivers is not the car we wanted. Drivers reported that it was difficult to drive. And we now know why.


Like many cars at the start of the season, the Mercedes was heavily overweight. What role did that play in the balance?

Elliott: If we're honest with ourselves, we didn't deliver what we wanted. Weight wasn't our biggest problem. Everyone knows how much lap time you find when your car gets lighter. We can always solve this problem, at the latest over this winter. It was much more important to understand the other problems. If we didn't do that, we would experience the same thing next season.

interview at the end of the 2022 season.

- Translate DeepL

https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... interview/

[pursue_one's]

New cars are always kept under wraps until release dates or even pre-season testing, but Autoracing has already been warning since the second half of 2022 that the Mercedes W14 will be an evolution of the W13.

By Mercedes' standards, the W13 was very bad last year and won only one race and took one pole in 2022.

Mercedes will make a change to the sidepod, not because of the kicks, but because of the great drag that the complete absence of the part generates on the rear wheels. The car will now have a sidepod that will be a middle ground between the 'zeropod' concept and the philosophy adopted by Red Bull. Mercedes will also have a different gearbox, "for a different arrangement of the critical rear suspension components."

"The big changes to the W14 will be in the floor and suspensions, especially in the rear, " a source confided to us. The car will get faster on the straight as well, since it will have less drag, the UP Spec 3 will finally go full track, and Petronas is developing a new fuel to "improve fuel efficiency" and "optimize combustion."

https://www.autoracing.com.br/saiba-o-q ... -mercedes/