Is the RB19 Dominant?

[LM10]

If not for a disruption in 2014, where Mercedes got ahead with the engine and Renault dropped the ball, the Red Bull would have continued the domination. Since 2009, they are the team with strong aero understanding. With Honda providing an equal engine, Red Bull is back to dominating again. I bet, no matter what regulation changes FIA might introduce, if the engine parity continues, Red Bull will always stay ahead, even if not with the current margin they have. But with RB currently running with handicap of wind tunnel time, still having a second a lap advantage is not a good omen. When they get their full wind tunnel time back, they might further that advantage.

RedBull started dominating last year. Before that, they needed the floor changes of 2021 to beat Mercedes for the title.

As for the wind tunnel time, they’re still enjoying the advantages of having spent more money than others. The effects of the penalty might not be seen before around halftime through the season.

So Mercedes was one trick pony that lost all the advantage with a few mm cut to the floor, despite getting tyre change of choice mid season. That says a lot.

We are two months in to the season with Red Bull penalty enforced on October last year and another 5 months to go, with Red Bull having over a second advantage. No one is catching them. They might even be hiding their true pace. They might even be loading the car in qualifying to give an impression that everyone is close. Come race day, everyone goes full tank and RB19 is a second ahead.

If you think that "a few mm" at such a critical area like the floor edge is not significant, you've not paid much attention to the aerodynamic part of F1. Actually it's not even true that it was a little part of "a few mm", but a huge chunk starting from like midway up to the very end of the floor which was removed. The aim was to reduce downforce by a whopping amount of 10%. They've not done this for fun. It was clear that these changes would hit Mercedes the most due to their concept.

This is what Andy Green told back then: "It's a huge change, believe it or not. A small change relatively speaking to the floor has had quite a significant impact on the performance of the car. It's not just a redevelopment of the floor, unfortunately, it's a redevelopment almost of the front to back aerodynamics of the car to try and recover it."

Regarding RedBull's penalty: Well, the performance they gained by cheating the cost cap is much more than the performance they'll lose because of the ridiculously small penalty.

Why should RedBull fuel the car in qualifying to give the impression of others being close when everyone know their real strengths are in the race? What we see in qualifying are the real paces. And what we've seen last race was also almost the true pace of the RedBull. I think they still had a little bit left, but both drivers were pushing each other while Charles and Fernando at the back were nursing their tyres from the beginning.

[mendis]

This is what Andy Green told back then: "It's a huge change, believe it or not. A small change relatively speaking to the floor has had quite a significant impact on the performance of the car. It's not just a redevelopment of the floor, unfortunately, it's a redevelopment almost of the front to back aerodynamics of the car to try and recover it."

They did a similar change to the floor this year too on behest of Mercedes. Did that hurt Red Bull? That's how a champion team manages changes that under their control. One can always give out excuses for churning out poor performance, like the dud Mercedes produced last year and this.

Regarding RedBull's penalty: Well, the performance they gained by cheating the cost cap is much more than the performance they'll lose because of the ridiculously small penalty.

Over the course of past 14 months, Mercedes have spent over 150 million (2022+23), while RB is having the handicap of wind tunnel penalty, how much have they closed the gap? In fact the gap has significantly increased. Clearly, 150 million hasn't helped Mercedes so far to even reduce a tenth over Red Bull with their handicap. I bet even if they are allowed to spend 500 million, they might struggle to come close. So it's clearly a hogwash to use RB' spending a few pennies more to cover the shame of non performance. One can continue to produce more and more excuses, but the reality is, Mercedes is no Red Bull when it comes to aero development.

[LM10]

They did a similar change to the floor this year too on behest of Mercedes. Did that hurt Red Bull? That's how a champion team manages changes that under their control. One can always give out excuses for churning out poor performance, like the dud Mercedes produced last year and this.

It's true that this year the floor rule changes were brought forward primarily because of the big problems Mercedes were having with their W13, but it was clear as day that no team was happy with the new rules. They came because of "safety reasons", but there was no safety concern as the teams had a pretty good control of the porpoising already.

On the other hand, in 2021 the floor changes were aimed at making Mercedes slower to have a title fight. Other than that, there was no reason for that. The argument that the cars needed to lose downforce to protect the tyres was just ridiculous. The chassis were frozen due to Covid anyway.

Over the course of past 14 months, Mercedes have spent over 150 million (2022+23), while RB is having the handicap of wind tunnel penalty, how much have they closed the gap? In fact the gap has significantly increased. Clearly, 150 million hasn't helped Mercedes so far to even reduce a tenth over Red Bull with their handicap. I bet even if they are allowed to spend 500 million, they might struggle to come close. So it's clearly a hogwash to use RB' spending a few pennies more to cover the shame of non performance. One can continue to produce more and more excuses, but the reality is, Mercedes is no Red Bull when it comes to aero development.

"A few pennies"? It's quite funny how you trivialise things. First you said the floor edge changes were only "a few mm" and now you call the amount RedBull overspent "a few pennies". Just for you to have an idea how much of a difference the 2.1 million dollars RedBull had overspent could make: Last year, when Fred Vasseur still was the TP of Alfa Romeo, he said that the budget of Alfa Romeo's whole in-season development is 2.4 million dollars.

No idea what you're trying to tell me with Mercedes having spent over 150 millions. Every team have spent the same amount because of the budget cap. RedBull even more, for obvious reasons. So neither Mercedes nor any other team had financial advantages relative to RedBull.

The wind tunnel handicap you're talking about is minimal and even if it's going to have an effect at some point, no one said that the effects would be visible at the beginning stages of this season. It's too early.

[DDopey]

On the other hand, in 2021 the floor changes were aimed at making Mercedes slower to have a title fight. Other than that, there was no reason for that. The argument that the cars needed to lose downforce to protect the tyres was just ridiculous. The chassis were frozen due to Covid anyway.

It was actually unclear who would benefit from the floor changes. There was a firm believe that high rake cars would be impacted more by cutting the floor.

[napoleon1981]

To me the ultimate hallmark of a dominant car is having meetings pre-race of how much to detune the car, so your advantage is not as obvious and doesn't trigger regulation changes to slow you down. Do we think RB is having these meetings like Merc was?

[AR3-GP]

To me the ultimate hallmark of a dominant car is having meetings pre-race of how much to detune the car, so your advantage is not as obvious and doesn't trigger regulation changes to slow you down. Do we think RB is having these meetings like Merc was?

We wouldn't be able to prove anything one way or the other. Do I think RB have turned the Honda down just a touch? Yes I do, but i have no proof. It would seem sensible to doubly ensure the engine reliability given their performance advantage and it would make FOM happy to have some Ferrari poles.

RB are currently the only team who is still using their 1st power unit, so they are already nerfing themselves from an engine degradation point of view (even though we are told a used Honda PU only loses a tenth at most). The others have much fresher PUs here in Miami (or Baku) as I understand it.

[napoleon1981]

To me the ultimate hallmark of a dominant car is having meetings pre-race of how much to detune the car, so your advantage is not as obvious and doesn't trigger regulation changes to slow you down. Do we think RB is having these meetings like Merc was?

We wouldn't be able to prove anything one way or the other. Do I think RB have turned the Honda down just a touch? That would seem sensible, and consider that RB are the only team currently who is still using their 1st power unit, so they are already nerfing themselves from an engine degradation point of view (even though we are told used Honda PU only loses a tenth at most). The others have much fresher PU.

Its alot harder to do these days, once you start a race detuned there is no more tuning it back up. The Merc meetings are pretty well described, and apparently could get quite heated to settle on the level of detuning required. I guess we will find out over time.

[AR3-GP]

To me the ultimate hallmark of a dominant car is having meetings pre-race of how much to detune the car, so your advantage is not as obvious and doesn't trigger regulation changes to slow you down. Do we think RB is having these meetings like Merc was?

We wouldn't be able to prove anything one way or the other. Do I think RB have turned the Honda down just a touch? That would seem sensible, and consider that RB are the only team currently who is still using their 1st power unit, so they are already nerfing themselves from an engine degradation point of view (even though we are told used Honda PU only loses a tenth at most). The others have much fresher PU.

Its alot harder to do these days, once you start a race detuned there is no more tuning it back up. The Merc meetings are pretty well described, and apparently could get quite heated to settle on the level of detuning required. I guess we will find out over time.

There's no "turning back up", but Honda and RB may decide before the race weekend to run with 10hp less than the theoretical maximum power output, for a number of reasons related to reliability/cycle life. They currently have no reason to push the ICE and both cars being on the 1st PU while everyone else in the paddock is on the second suggest as much. I'm not saying they are hiding a major amount, but 10hp or so? That's probably within reason as they don't need it, and it makes the engines last longer (those last bits of hp are coming at the expense of increased pre-detonation degradation and turbo wear as they run higher boost and more aggressive timing)..

[chrisc90]

They could just use the ERS/battery to give them the boost they need. And you can turn it up and down on track

[LM10]

To me the ultimate hallmark of a dominant car is having meetings pre-race of how much to detune the car, so your advantage is not as obvious and doesn't trigger regulation changes to slow you down. Do we think RB is having these meetings like Merc was?

We wouldn't be able to prove anything one way or the other. Do I think RB have turned the Honda down just a touch? Yes I do, but i have no proof. It would seem sensible to doubly ensure the engine reliability given their performance advantage and it would make FOM happy to have some Ferrari poles.

Why should RedBull care whether FOM is happy or not?
Ferrari has been reported to detune their PU again this season, btw. If you think that RedBull detunes the PU to gift Ferrari pole positions, I think that’s a bit of a wishful thinking.

[AR3-GP]

To me the ultimate hallmark of a dominant car is having meetings pre-race of how much to detune the car, so your advantage is not as obvious and doesn't trigger regulation changes to slow you down. Do we think RB is having these meetings like Merc was?

We wouldn't be able to prove anything one way or the other. Do I think RB have turned the Honda down just a touch? Yes I do, but i have no proof. It would seem sensible to doubly ensure the engine reliability given their performance advantage and it would make FOM happy to have some Ferrari poles.

Why should RedBull care whether FOM is happy or not?
Ferrari has been reported to detune their PU again this season, btw. If you think that RedBull detunes the PU to gift Ferrari pole positions, I think that’s a bit of a wishful thinking.

Interesting interpretation of what I wrote…

RB care for the same reason that Merc cared. The FIA nerf. I’m not saying Red Bull are holding back the way Merc was in 2014-2015, but they have zero reason to run their PU at 100% when they can run it at 98% and still win at a canter.

[Zynerji]

We wouldn't be able to prove anything one way or the other. Do I think RB have turned the Honda down just a touch? Yes I do, but i have no proof. It would seem sensible to doubly ensure the engine reliability given their performance advantage and it would make FOM happy to have some Ferrari poles.

Why should RedBull care whether FOM is happy or not?
Ferrari has been reported to detune their PU again this season, btw. If you think that RedBull detunes the PU to gift Ferrari pole positions, I think that’s a bit of a wishful thinking.

Interesting interpretation of what I wrote…

RB care for the same reason that Merc cared. The FIA nerf. I’m not saying Red Bull are holding back the way Merc was in 2014-2015, but they have zero reason to run their PU at 100% when they can run it at 98% and still win at a canter.

The problem is finding any one or two items RBR do differently than others that can be changed to draw them back. In reality, it's more like a 1% better car in 100 different areas. I feel their true advantage is the synergy of the components instead of the components themselves.

That's hard to nerf.

[LM10]

We wouldn't be able to prove anything one way or the other. Do I think RB have turned the Honda down just a touch? Yes I do, but i have no proof. It would seem sensible to doubly ensure the engine reliability given their performance advantage and it would make FOM happy to have some Ferrari poles.

Why should RedBull care whether FOM is happy or not?
Ferrari has been reported to detune their PU again this season, btw. If you think that RedBull detunes the PU to gift Ferrari pole positions, I think that’s a bit of a wishful thinking.

Interesting interpretation of what I wrote…

RB care for the same reason that Merc cared. The FIA nerf. I’m not saying Red Bull are holding back the way Merc was in 2014-2015, but they have zero reason to run their PU at 100% when they can run it at 98% and still win at a canter.

Their reason to run it at 100% is to win pole positions.

[AR3-GP]

Why should RedBull care whether FOM is happy or not?
Ferrari has been reported to detune their PU again this season, btw. If you think that RedBull detunes the PU to gift Ferrari pole positions, I think that’s a bit of a wishful thinking.

Interesting interpretation of what I wrote…

RB care for the same reason that Merc cared. The FIA nerf. I’m not saying Red Bull are holding back the way Merc was in 2014-2015, but they have zero reason to run their PU at 100% when they can run it at 98% and still win at a canter.

Their reason to run it at 100% is to win pole positions.

If pole was so important, they would run a qualifying setup….but as you knw…points are scored on Sunday.

They have 4 of 5 official pole positions this season. Just like Mercedes in start of hybrid era and Mercedes didn’t need full power to take those poles at a canter.

RB were already running with a slightly less power in Australia due to the drive shaft concerns and they still took pole at a canter. RB is the only team still using their first power unit this weekend. Safe to say they are not pushing to the breaking point of their design, unlike Ferrari who quickly found the breaking point of their own PU and have had to reduce the power to a more realistic level.

[vorticism]

chrisc90 can you repost your Merc pole/win percentage statistics?