jofs89 wrote: ↑10 May 2023, 15:17
Hi, I'm new to fourm
Do people think it's feasible that Aston Martin (in Alosno's hands) could start to put the slower RB under pressure later in the season ? This seems possible to me if the upgrades perform well. I did some analysis of the lap times so far in all GPs (removing pitspots, saftey car laps etc.) and the Alonso average lap time was 0.338 off Perez and 0.461 off Verstappen.
The defecit in finishing time has been similar to the slowest Red Bull in all races (between 15-20 seconds). Although, satefy cars and other variables will obviously effect this.
Some may say the RB is still sandbagging it's true pace. However, I don't know if I buy that as they are often competing for the win so are unlikely to just accept they will come 2nd in most cases and just manage everything. Also, it's clear that Alonso is driving within the capabilities of the car in most races to manage tyres etc. as once he's got 3rd sown up there is little point stressing the tyres, engine etc.
Is there any chance a big upgrade package could get Alonso close enough to split the Red Bulls on some circuits?
I was looking @ the Q3 lap-times & it seems Aston is 5-6/7 tenths behind the pole time except the odd bits here & there. You could argue Alonso's Q2 times/runs have been better than Q3 but the reality is it is 5-6 tenths with DRS.
Also, RB have fumbled with Verstappen twice & he had to make his away through which flatter the laptimes. On Race pace it looks like 5-6 tenths again, in some tracks maybe 7 tenths. Assuming Verstappen will be 1-2 tenths quicker than Perez on race pace & maybe 3 tenths in Qualifying, Aston need a bigger relative upgrade. Mercedes 1st talked about a 3 tenth upgrade in Imola & now there are rumours for a new suspension, floor & sidepods (virtually B-Spec Car) & Toto is saying that 5 tenths gain in unrealistic so they have got strong gains in the sim. Aston's weak area is the floor which is very basic & there are many tenths to come from there.
Realistically can't see Aston with a 5 tenth upgrade which is what Alonso will need to compete vs Verstappen. That will bring the gap to 1/2 tenths in qualy & even lesser in the race which will mean in some tracks like Monaco, Spain, Aston could be ahead. Currently despite Alonso, Krack & Fallows optimistic take on Monaco/Spain, can't see Aston ahead/making 5 tenths+.
It depends on how big the upgrades are in Imola, Canada & Silverstone. Realistically then will need atleast 3/2/2 tenths (Around 7 tenths odd to be competitive in some races) & RB will gain 1-2-3 tenths with multiple upgrade packages. Atleast they need to target 1 win, fight with Perez & being clear of Mercedes/Ferrari who will bring big upgrades. Would love to see Alonso fight for the win !