Right now, we as fans have very little to go one, just two separate statements. One by FIA, and one by Ferrari. So until more information is revealed, we just have to pick apart each word uttered so far. In the FIA press release, they state:
The manufacturer teams have further agreed to the permanent and continuing role of the FIA as the sport’s governing body. They have also committed to the commercial arrangements for the FIA Formula One World Championship until 2012 and have agreed to renegotiate and extend this contract before the end of that period.
Any lawyers here, because every word, every period is relevant. Because it appears that the teams have committed themselves to commercial arrangements until 2012. But after that... will negotiate. Negotiate? In other words, FOTA members would be free of any legal obligation imposed by Bernie, and that in itself is a huge victory for them. And when you enter "negotiations", both sides can try to reach an agreement on issues. But if one side balks at specific issues such as payment from TV revenues, it is possible at that point we then have another war as we just witnessed. But it won't be FOTA versus Max/FIA this time, but instead FOTA versus Bernie. What if during the "negotiations" FOTA demand the lion's share of TV revenue and Bernie disagrees. Well, if neither side gives ground, then no agreement is reached. Then, FOTA is in a position where they can walk away from Bernie's game and start their own series. But this time, no one can sue them for hundreds and hundreds of millions. Which is what Bernie would have done if FOTA had walked away today.
Think long range, as WB suggested. A war is not won in a day, it may take years. In this case, three. First, today, Max is deposed. In three years, FOTA will have Bernie over a barrel, and Mr Ecclestone will be royally screwed. Right now, 50% of all TV revenue goes to CVC, who have absolutely nothing to do with our sport. CVC just use this TV revenue money to pay off their debts, with zero, I repeat, ZERO return back towards this sport. FOTA demands would take a huge bite out of CVC's income, and for Bernie, an impossible situation. CVC wants 50% of TV revenue, FOTA members insist they receive, let's say, 75%. Bernie says it's impossible, FOTA says adios. Then Bernie finds himself in a situation where he has comitted to providing a version of Formula One that still draws in the huge TV audience presently enjoyed. But without FOTA? Without McLaren, Ferrari,and the rest?
This drama is long from over, and in the next three years we will see Bernie attempt to devalue teams such as Mclaren and Ferrari, and divide and destroy FOTA.
FOTA is well aware of this, and they will try to hang tough for the next three years until they resolve the Bernie problem. Then, once that is done, expect FOTA members to turn upon each other. Their common enemy is gone, and unaminity is gone.
But right now, things look good for FOTA.
Racing should be decided on the track, not the court room.