CHT wrote: ↑19 Sep 2023, 09:27
With the record-winning streak coming to an end, this will help relieve pressure on the drivers to update their Wikipedia so the entire team can start focusing on 2024 championship.
I was wondering if Max did not pit in lap 41 for medium and was lucky to catch the SC in lap 43 or 44, will there be any chance of him winning the race?
I think there were two (long shot) possibilities of Max winning:
1. There isn't a SC/VSC until lap 30-40, rewarding RB's inverted tire strategy, allowing them to gain 15 seconds on the rest of the field via pitting under those conditions instead of normal racing conditions.
This option was obviously ruined when a SC came out at the perfect time for those who started on medium or soft tires.
2. Could RB have switched Max (and just Max) to a two stop strategy when the SC came out?
He was running in 8th at the time (just behind Alonso and Ocon). If he pitted like everybody else he would have held that position (dropping to 9th if Checo stayed out, he would have been in 3rd). Then all the cars would be bunched up, but Max would be on new mediums compared to new hards (and Checo on 20 lap old hards). How high could Max have gotten with that tire advantage? I honestly don't know if the advantage was enough to pass cars on new hards. I think he probably would have gotten past Alonso and Ocon, especially with Checo holding them up. Leclerc was nursing an engine issue (per Mark Hughes' race recap) so he could probably get by him. Could he have caught and passed Lewis or Lando?
Max would have been able to be more aggressive knowing he was going to stop again, while others were conserving tires for a one stop strategy. Max was 8 seconds behind Leclerc when he pitted on lap 40. The top 5 had about one second gaps between each car. This is what makes me think Max could have gotten into the top 5 on that stint on mediums.
Then the VSC came at the perfect time for him to switch to new soft tires (had a set because he didn't make it to Q3). Lewis was in P4 when he pitted under VSC and he only lost position to Charles. So that's worst case for Max as well, in my opinion (whatever position he was in prior to pitting again, he would be in that position plus one spot lost to Charles, unless he was able to make it all the way to 1st and build a 15+ second lead in 22 laps on mediums). How fast would Max have been at the end with fresh soft tires compared to the Mercedes cars on fresh mediums and the leaders on old hard tires?
Would he have been able to catch and pass either Mercedes before they caught up to the Norris-Sainz train? Would he have been ahead of Lewis before that final stint began? I don't know these answers, but if anybody does it's probably some of the very smart posters on this forum. But this is the only long shot strategy that I could have seen allowing Max to win (he would have been on the faster compound than Mercedes for the last 42 laps of the race, and much faster compound than Norris and the Ferraris). Maybe it's not plausible at all (even within the long shot realm of possibilities).
I don't really understand the decision (with a bit of hindsight) to not pit him under SC. He would have to pit again (most likely not able to make mediums last until the end) but he had to do that anyway staying out. (But being on new mediums probably allows you to wait out a SC/VSC longer than 20 lap old hard tires.) He gained six positions staying out, but quickly lost four of them and then the RBs were running 6-7, after being 2-4 at the restart, and losing time to the leaders, who weren't exactly pushing. Maybe RB thought the 20 lap old hards would heat up quicker than did and that they'd be able to hold position, to me that's the only reasoning that makes the decision to stay out logical. I guess another SC could have happened in 10 more laps (around lap 30-35), that would have been before the gap to the leaders got too big, but then they would still lose a lot of track position just like they did when they pitted. It's hard not to be blinded by hindsight when you know the SC/VSC occured at the perfect times for a two stop strategy and Max/Checo were the only top cars with a set of new softs.