Ferrari SF-24 speculation

[aleks_ader]

Not that it matters. But personally i love such unorthodox decisions like that one from Zandvoort. Lateral thinking of those F1 teams is really something too applaud. Its nothing to be really over impressed. But at least it shows " big cojones " from new tech leads. Tap into any resource or ways to access data, find solutions etc. is to be admired.

Tho i expect them they are honing-in new simulations tools under help of sportscars side also.
Beacuse i got hints driver in loop simulator needs some tuning. Those pesky ground effects dammn it.

[ing.]

Cardile interview about '23/'24

https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... interview/

Link to translation

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... nt/kf9wvzm

Some more info here from that interview, especially as regards limitations on development imposed by chassis configuration and loss of DF with steered front wheels/yaw/cross-wind:

https://x.com/ferrarif1fra/status/17403 ... 5rN71eTA2g

[AmateurDriver]

Further stating that the anti-dive geometry reduces porpoising—which is most evident at speed on the straight when no braking is involved—reduces the credibility of this prediction.

Maybe he's meaning that antidive allows playing more with suspension stiffness and ride height.

[ing.]

Further stating that the anti-dive geometry reduces porpoising—which is most evident at speed on the straight when no braking is involved—reduces the credibility of this prediction.

Maybe he's meaning that antidive allows playing more with suspension stiffness and ride height.

Could be, but not explained that way. But again—and this is most likely the reason it’s mentioned—RB have little anti-dive effect and recently both Cardile and another F1 design tech (can’t recall at this time) mentioned how suspensions are designed primarily with aero in mind and kinematics adapted to be just good enough. In fact, I believe SF-23 probably has a higher lateral instant center than RB due to its more horizontal lower wishbone.

Also, a lot of anti-dive, as being proposed, brings is on other issues, including loss of stability and less compliance to bumps, since the trajectory of the contact patch over a bump or road irregularity is moving forward toward the bump.

The other aspect of high anti-dive is the jacking effect at high steer angled, though this might actually be a useful thing—to level the aero platform—as the outside front tire sees a higher longitudinal force component than the inside tire typically.

https://imgur.com/a/KJnvYJW

[organic]

Italian media coming with the information

https://formu1a.uno/en/ferrari-2024-upd ... -progress/

Key info is that they've found 30 pts of downforce (4-5 tenths) in the tunnel. What else they can achieve will come from mechanics, moving aerodynamic envelope, tyre wear etc. but the 4-5 tenths number is from the aero step alone that their tunnel tells them.

4-5 tenths from the post-japan spec sf-23 is also in line with what Stella said they will need to gain to remain competitive for 2024.

Ferrari 2024: found 30 more load points than the SF-23 Japan Spec. That half-second (although the actual gain depends on many other technical factors) which, according to Andrea Stella, is what Mclaren should also find to remain competitive at the start of next season. However, at Maranello, but more or less in all the teams, there is caution after what happened last season. Will it be enough to catch up with Red Bull? Only the track will be able to tell, considering that no team can know how much the technical team headed by Pierre Wache has held back in terms of the RB19's development, remembering also the limitations imposed by the Fia after the 2022 budget gate, only reset in November.

[franbatista123]

Italian media coming with the information

https://formu1a.uno/en/ferrari-2024-upd ... -progress/

Key info is that they've found 30 pts of downforce (4-5 tenths) in the tunnel. What else they can achieve will come from mechanics, moving aerodynamic envelope, tyre wear etc. but the 4-5 tenths number is from the aero step alone that their tunnel tells them

Ferrari 2024: found 30 more load points than the SF-23 Japan Spec. That half-second (although the actual gain depends on many other technical factors) which, according to Andrea Stella, is what Mclaren should also find to remain competitive at the start of next season. However, at Maranello, but more or less in all the teams, there is caution after what happened last season. Will it be enough to catch up with Red Bull? Only the track will be able to tell, considering that no team can know how much the technical team headed by Pierre Wache has held back in terms of the RB19's development, remembering also the limitations imposed by the Fia after the 2022 budget gate, only reset in November.

I see the pre-season hype is starting

Does anyone know how they usually calculate those 4-5 tenths? Is it the estimated gain on a qualifying lap in peak performance or in race conditions? I wonder if they pick a specific track as benchmark, if so then Barcelona would be my guess.

[organic]

In this case it doesn't seem to be hype like the early reports last year.. feels more cautious and just reporting what's happened

Downforce will help in quali and the race and at every track but it's probably calculated on quali at the "average" F1 circuit. Without the chicane Barcelona's probably not as representative as it once was

[scuderiabrandon]

It is not based on any circuit. It is a theoretcial figure. Just like the estimated gain from 10 kilo weight reduction is around 0.3s.

[SSScoffee]

Let's hope they can find another .5 in other areas.

[scuderiabrandon]

I highly doubt ay other team will be a 1 second faster than they were in 2023

[jumpingfish]

But to beat the RB20, the 676 must save its tires and be 1s faster than the SF23 during the race, otherwise there will be no titles fight.

[scuderiabrandon]

But to beat the RB20, the 676 must save its tires and be 1s faster than the SF23 during the race, otherwise there will be no titles fight.

It seems a lot of people stopped watching this season early, which I can't blame them for in all honesty. Ferrari from Belgium onwards had relatively okay tyre deg. They ran into another issue where as the compound got harder they dropped off massively, even more than they did in 2022. Circuits where they were worse off after Belgim were where they just geniunely lacked pace, mainly because the SF-23 lacked downforce. There were some stints where we Ferrari matched Red Bull over a single stint, particularly post Japan, on the softer race tyre.

Red Bull was extremely overweight at the start of this reg cycle. They startd 20kg overweight, whilst keeping up with Ferrari. They ended the season 12kg overweight. Already then were they extremely dominant. I personally feel like the RB19 gained most of its time by losing all of this weight. The gap between them and Ferrari was exacerbated by the raising of the floor edges, which they seemed to have a much better understanding of, Ferrair under estimated the importance of.

I personally feel like people are over estimating RB potential gains over the winter. I honestly don't see any of the top 6 teams gaining anywhere near a second over last season. If a team does, it will be a backmarker that does so. Red Bull are clsoer to the performance ceiling than anyone else, that is not to say they already at the limit but much closer to it than other, otherwise they wouldn't have been so much quicker. Just by that logic do I feel they have less to gain over the winter.

My prediction would be around six-ish tenths in race trim will bring teams on par with Red Bull. I still think over the course of a season they'll be the overwhelming favourites.

It is not only Red Bll trying to improve the RB19 but also other teams looking at ways they can improve it, and employ those learnings onto their 2024 cars.

[AR3-GP]

I actually do think Ferrari and Mercedes will find 1 second over the winter. Their prior cars were fundamentally flawed. They wouldn't be making these big changes just to find a few tenths. The data would have to be overwhelming to justify spending that money on a different concept.

I also think that no team is near any ceiling. The budget cap and the aero restrictions are a massive setback to development pace.

[scuderiabrandon]

I actually do think Ferrari and Mercedes will find 1 second over the winter. Their prior cars were fundamentally flawed. They wouldn't be making these big changes just to find a few tenths. The data would have to be overwhelming to justify spending that money on a different concept.

I also think that no team is near any ceiling. The budget cap and the aero restrictions are a massive setback to development pace.

Again, I'm not suggesting RB are at the ceiling, but them being so much quicker means they are at the very least closer to it.

You have too look at the pace near end of the season. Ferrari had some stints where they were comparable to Red Bull on the medium tyre. Look at the gaps between the 2022 and 2023 cars late into both season. The 23 cars were not seconds quicker, unless you drove an Aston Martin. I don't think that will be the case this year either. We are in the 3rd year of this reg cycle, the returns are starting to diminish.

There is no guarantee that they will improve at some circuits either. My personal prediction would be around 6-7 tenths in race trim on average, on their weakest compound for that given weekend. At their absolute weakest tracks they'd probably need somewhere around 8 tenths to a second. 3-4 tenths at their stronger circuits.

[organic]

McLaren found over 1s in 6 months of development work and were between 0-4 tenths off RB at the end of the year depending on the track config. To me this indicates that it's unlikely that they are close to performance ceiling and by extension RB, Ferrari as well

I think not much time was gained between '22 and '23 because while the floor edge change was absorbed better by some teams (RB) and worse by others (Ferrari, Merc) it still did reduce the downforce production of the cars. The estimation of Tombazis was 5 tenths. So that hid some of the teams' gains. Additionally, the teams carried a lot over between '22 and '23 due to the budget cap that they're able to change for '24 meaning some gains previously left on the table can be made

Furthermore the budget cap and aero restrictions make it more likely that we're not close to the ceiling yet. There's no sign of anyone experiencing diminishing returns yet

I think it's unlikely that 1s will be found by any top team, but i wouldn't be shocked by it