Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
Getting in here before testing starts. Just a guess for the start of the season, who knows how it'll develop:
Red Bull
McLaren - They've been very optimistic in interviews, and weirdly secretive with their car.
Aston Martin
Ferrari
Mercedes
VCARB - Front and rear RB19 suspension, they should move up.
Alpine
Sauber
Williams - Big changes there, might take them a while to figure it out.
Haas - They've said as much.
I always like to be different, and don't like extrapolating the past into the future. On the belief that it may take Red Bull a bit to dial in the Mercedes W13/W14 Mk.2 (and if it proves good after a bit - Mercedes knows how to build that style of car - the missing ingredient could have been the Red Bull suspension which Mercedes seems to have mostly addressed) and the W15 is looking pretty evolved. Ferrari is looking like they didn't push it enough and Williams might be on a resurgence. Here is my take.
Mercedes
Red Bull
Mclaren
Ferrari (if this happens Lewis will be - Oh, Oh what did I do?)
Williams (Only held back by Logan who could be replaced by Antonelli mid-season)
Aston (Stroll keeps them back as well and I see Alonso signing for Mercedes after a few races if they prove Strong)
VCarb
Alpine
Stake
Haas
1. Red Bull
2. McLaren
3. Mercedes/Ferrari
4. Aston Martin
5. VCARB/Williams/Alpine
6. Sauber
7. Haas
Mostly similar to maybe 3/4s of the way through last year. I see Alpine and Haas going backwards a bit, while McLaren, VCARB, and Williams go forward. Aston being an average of where they were last year, so not quite as bad as they were at the 3/4 mark. McLaren is on an huge upwards trajectory, have new key staff coming in, have their wind tunnel now running, and seem incredibly (and uncharacteristically) optimistic. VCARB is getting a bunch of Red Bull stuff and seem quite excited. Williams has been on a great trajectory under JV, and with the huge overhaul he’s done sacrificing last year to break the cycle, I think they’ll also make a step forward. Haas and Alpine both seem like train wrecks on an organisation side and both seem to be expecting a bad start to the season. As for the other teams, while there’s some significant variables at play, it’s not all mostly positive or negative, there’s a lot of both. So I’m largely expecting them to stay in similar positions.
I can see Ferrari maybe pipping Mercedes this year, with Mercedes having a few more issues. They’ve got less wind tunnel/CFD while also starting this years car far later than Ferrari and making much more significant changes. I also see the Hamilton move effecting Mercedes more than Ferrari.
I think Alpine will either lose out in their battle. Those 3 teams are going to be needing to take advantage of every opportunity to get points since in a perfectly clean race I don’t think they’ll have the pace to do so. I think Alpine has the best line up between them and will probably have the better car, they’re weak point is on strategy and I can see them missing out on these opportunities, even if they’re more consistently ahead of the other 2 teams. I think it’ll be interesting between VCARB and Williams, Williams essentially having a rookie will be mostly fighting with 1 driver, however, if they’re scrapping for the odd points that becomes less important and their strategy team is great at taking advantage of those opportunities. So I can see that going either way.
Anyway, ready to be proven wrong in a week and a bit.
Yeah I know this I may be off topic but I had to write it somewhere!
First morning of testing and Red Bull are already 0,7 ahead without even trying! Yeah I know the classic answer “the others should find a way to close the gap” which isn’t happening of course! So something else is wrong…
Don’t know what f1 is waiting for…! It’s high time they introduced BoP! Convergence is not happening any time soon even with these prescriptive rules! Having statistics like “the field spread was only 1,9% in 2023” (when in reality 0,7% of that is between 1st and 2nd) just so that people stop talking about the real problem isn’t going to work for long!
F1 changed everything in 2022 so that more teams have a chance of winning! I don’t see anyone other than Verstapen have a chance of winning until 2026! No new teams are up front…so what’s the point of not letting them spend as much as they like? Both Mercedes and Ferrari (and probably Aston) would have been way closer if they could spend whatever…
Don’t know who’s gonna be watching F1 in 2024! Probably only Red Bull-Verstapen fans but anyway…who cares!
"The only rule is there are no rules" - Aristotle Onassis
Yeah I know this I may be off topic but I had to write it somewhere!
First morning of testing and Red Bull are already 0,7 ahead without even trying! Yeah I know the classic answer “the others should find a way to close the gap” which isn’t happening of course! So something else is wrong…
Don’t know what f1 is waiting for…! It’s high time they introduced BoP! Convergence is not happening any time soon even with these prescriptive rules! Having statistics like “the field spread was only 1,9% in 2023” (when in reality 0,7% of that is between 1st and 2nd) just so that people stop talking about the real problem isn’t going to work for long!
F1 changed everything in 2022 so that more teams have a chance of winning! I don’t see anyone other than Verstapen have a chance of winning until 2026! No new teams are up front…so what’s the point of not letting them spend as much as they like? Both Mercedes and Ferrari (and probably Aston) would have been way closer if they could spend whatever…
Don’t know who’s gonna be watching F1 in 2024! Probably only Red Bull-Verstapen fans but anyway…who cares!
Simple advice: Dont watch it then.
I as a Mclaren fan will, like i did for past 25 years with all of the ups and downs my team endured trough this time.
About Max dominance: Mercedes had dominance for 7 seasons in a row, where no team was able to do much, and only sandbagging until the middle of the season gave competitors some false hope in 17 and 18.
If i would get the money to start my own F1 team, i would revive Arrows
Dumb question: why are people ranking Vcarb so highly?
Majority of their car is rb19. To me this alone is putting them infront of Haas, Sauber, Williams and somewhere to Alpine range atleast.
Thanks, and I don't deny your claim. They purchase RBT parts for a long time now but it seems to never result in much. They seem to have something consistently missing on the strat & set-up side, maybe in manufacturing even, which could all be explained by budget size.
Dumb question: why are people ranking Vcarb so highly?
Highly? They are averaging 5th to 6th, which is where they were on pace sporadically last season. They have a bit more good bits from the RB so try as they may, it will be hard to be bad. The talk from Alpine suggest they won't be too quick, and that was the only other team you would intrinsically put ahead.
Dumb question: why are people ranking Vcarb so highly?
Highly? They are averaging 5th to 6th, which is where they were on pace sporadically last season. They have a bit more good bits from the RB so try as they may, it will be hard to be bad. The talk from Alpine suggest they won't be too quick, and that was the only other team you would intrinsically put ahead.
Also the VCARB is already faster on day 1 of testing than the RB19 12 months ago. So I believe the car can't be that bad
Yeah I know this I may be off topic but I had to write it somewhere!
First morning of testing and Red Bull are already 0,7 ahead without even trying! Yeah I know the classic answer “the others should find a way to close the gap” which isn’t happening of course! So something else is wrong…
Don’t know what f1 is waiting for…! It’s high time they introduced BoP! Convergence is not happening any time soon even with these prescriptive rules! Having statistics like “the field spread was only 1,9% in 2023” (when in reality 0,7% of that is between 1st and 2nd) just so that people stop talking about the real problem isn’t going to work for long!
F1 changed everything in 2022 so that more teams have a chance of winning! I don’t see anyone other than Verstapen have a chance of winning until 2026! No new teams are up front…so what’s the point of not letting them spend as much as they like? Both Mercedes and Ferrari (and probably Aston) would have been way closer if they could spend whatever…
Don’t know who’s gonna be watching F1 in 2024! Probably only Red Bull-Verstapen fans but anyway…who cares!
The season has not started and the season is long, in any case what you see now may not be what you see by race 12 - suffice to say all the teams are on different programs too, the only reasonable conclusions to be made right now are to do with reliability, tyre deg etc. RedBull is ahead of course but impossible to know by how much.
Just look how many times the pecking order changed last season as well, Ferrari nearly won a couple races at the end of 2023 if not for some bad luck. Whilst McLaren were competitive in the middle part of the season. Stay calm until the season starts at least.
"Nosotros diferimos, pero nosotros todos son iguales"
