I feel quite optimistic today that at least Mercedes aren't really far behind the "2nd group" (Ferrari, McLaren, Aston and Perez), especially managing so many changes to their car.
Speed trap data shows they're right up there with the lead of this group.
Source
Hamilton's
fastest lap was over a bit off from Perez on the same time and roughly same time of day. Hamilton I believe made an error somewhere in the 2nd sector, probably at turn 10, as the comparison to Norris shows a loss of a few tenths in this sector.
Source
If anyone has sector or mini-sector data for fastest laps, can you share a link?
This at least shows the best sector time was well below McLaren in sector 2, but I haven't found enough data yet to say if this is just a weak sector for Mercedes
I'd be very interested in seeing the evolution of the long run data today for Hamilton - that will give much better insights