2024 Pre-Season Testing - Bahrain International Circuit, Feb 21 - 23

[Cs98]

Doesn’t make sense. Can someone point out which race sim shows merc to be ahead of Ferrari?

A bit silly to ask since Merc didn't do a proper race sim where we could establish their fuel levels from the outside. But Ferrari did, so presumably rivals have a pretty decent idea where Ferrari stand. That and the comment from Allison makes me not want to discount Mercedes. Now idk where they got that AMR number from, because Alonso's race sim was nowhere near half a tenth from Charles'.

What did Allison say?

That they were slightly ahead of Ferrari on race pace.

[dialtone]

A bit silly to ask since Merc didn't do a proper race sim where we could establish their fuel levels from the outside. But Ferrari did, so presumably rivals have a pretty decent idea where Ferrari stand. That and the comment from Allison makes me not want to discount Mercedes. Now idk where they got that AMR number from, because Alonso's race sim was nowhere near half a tenth from Charles'.

What did Allison say?

That they were slightly ahead of Ferrari on race pace.

So basically down to trusting James Allison. The one race sim was very mid. Davidson kept talking about a race sim in the morning for Mercs from today and when I looked at the timing I didn’t see any race sim from Mercs, the longest stint from Russell is 10 laps today. Tire deg from Ferrari has been great in this test. If Ferrari came out and said “we’re ahead” they would be laughed at.

[Vanja #66]

They may be forecasting a performance improvement based on track conditions and applying it to Russell's race simulation on the first day. Alternatively, they could be extrapolating the fuel level from the short stint he completed earlier today.

Mercedes expectations were wonderfully accurate in 22 and 23, so they must be true

[LM10]

AMuS reported that as per Pirelli, the C4 tyres are 8 tenths faster than the C3 tyres.

Comparing the last corner speeds is a really interesting thing to do. I don’t know if or how grippier today’s C4 is compared to the C4 in 2020, but being clearly up on the 2020 Mercedes there is an eye catcher without a doubt. And don’t forget Sainz did the lap in testing. What was the minimum speed of Max there in last year’s pole lap?

126 kmh for max in 2023
And actually 2020 merc was 129 km/h (ham pole), not 132 as I initially said. Somehow I mixed it up with something else.
https://i.imgur.com/nCmjall.jpeg

So 136 km/h from Sainz is actually very, very fast.

Thanks Juzh. It indeed is tremendously fast, especially considering he was not pushing to the limit.
Do you by chance know how fast others were in that corner in testing?

[organic]

What did Allison say?

That they were slightly ahead of Ferrari on race pace.

So basically down to trusting James Allison. The one race sim was very mid. Davidson kept talking about a race sim in the morning for Mercs from today and when I looked at the timing I didn’t see any race sim from Mercs, the longest stint from Russell is 10 laps today. Tire deg from Ferrari has been great in this test. If Ferrari came out and said “we’re ahead” they would be laughed at.

Allison/Merc know that if they make statements like this and don't follow up on it then they will be the ones laughed at. Like they were about 2022 ambitions etc when they built a terrible car. And then the same in 2023 after hoping to win the championship etc.

They've had recent run-ins with aiming too high with public statements and falling short so i'd be surprised if they do it again. Allison has always struck me as a very measured and thoughtful communicator so I don't believe he'd make such a mistake personally

Nobody's saying you have to trust his word, but some others might and that's okay

[dialtone]

Nobody's saying you have to trust his word, but some others might and that's okay

For sure. I’m not even saying he’s wrong, I’m just trying to figure out where it comes from, aside from that Twitter account not adjusting for fuel load.

[organic]

Nobody's saying you have to trust his word, but some others might and that's okay

For sure. I’m not even saying he’s wrong, I’m just trying to figure out where it comes from, aside from that Twitter account not adjusting for fuel load.

Seems those official F1 simulations place Merc race pace about level with Ferrari as well. No clue where the data for it is either myself.

[AR3-GP]

Nobody's saying you have to trust his word, but some others might and that's okay

For sure. I’m not even saying he’s wrong, I’m just trying to figure out where it comes from, aside from that Twitter account not adjusting for fuel load.

James Allison isn't using a random twitter account to figure out the pecking order. Where it comes from will be his own team's data engineers. We don't have access to this but you can assume it's a more thorough analysis.

With that said, one team can't know the real performance level of another team without knowing all the variables so I'd give a 1-2 tenths margin of error to anyone claiming exact gaps.

[Luscion]

That they were slightly ahead of Ferrari on race pace.

So basically down to trusting James Allison. The one race sim was very mid. Davidson kept talking about a race sim in the morning for Mercs from today and when I looked at the timing I didn’t see any race sim from Mercs, the longest stint from Russell is 10 laps today. Tire deg from Ferrari has been great in this test. If Ferrari came out and said “we’re ahead” they would be laughed at.

Allison/Merc know that if they make statements like this and don't follow up on it then they will be the ones laughed at. Like they were about 2022 ambitions etc when they built a terrible car. And then the same in 2023 after hoping to win the championship etc.

They've had recent run-ins with aiming too high with public statements and falling short so i'd be surprised if they do it again. Allison has always struck me as a very measured and thoughtful communicator so I don't believe he'd make such a mistake personally

Nobody's saying you have to trust his word, but some others might and that's okay

add to this Merc has been very careful with what they say in terms of their performance building up to this season, not once have they mentioned they can take the fight to Redbull like they did the last two years, at least not right out the gate

[organic]

Formu1a Uno report that Verstappen's "long runs" were estimated by another team to be done with 85kg of fuel for each of the 3 long stints he did on day 3 but very low engine modes

Anyone willing to fuel correct?

[LM10]

Formu1a Uno report that Verstappen's "long runs" were estimated by another team to be done with 85kg of fuel for each of the 3 long stints he did on day 3

Wasn’t he faster on the C1 than on the C3? Doesn’t make sense that he had the same amount of fuel.

[organic]

Formu1a Uno report that Verstappen's "long runs" were estimated by another team to be done with 85kg of fuel for each of the 3 long stints he did on day 3

https://twitter.com/SmilexTech/status/1 ... 7C5FQ&s=19

Wasn’t he faster on the C1 than on the C3? Doesn’t make sense that he had the same amount of fuel.

C1 is exceptional tyre at Bahrain over race stint, and he was driving to a target laptime in all 3 stints

[dialtone]

Nobody's saying you have to trust his word, but some others might and that's okay

For sure. I’m not even saying he’s wrong, I’m just trying to figure out where it comes from, aside from that Twitter account not adjusting for fuel load.

James Allison isn't using a random twitter account to figure out the pecking order. Where it comes from will be his own team's data engineers. We don't have access to this but you can assume it's a more thorough analysis.

With that said, one team can't know the real performance level of another team without knowing all the variables so I'd give a 1-2 tenths margin of error to anyone claiming exact gaps.

They did say they were 1s behind RBR. Ferrari thinks they are 0.3s behind RBR which seems reasonable actually and would give a 1s YoY improvement to RBR. One of the 2 isn’t right.

[MtthsMlw]

Was this shared already? Official data from F1



https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... x03NR.html

[dren]

For sure. I’m not even saying he’s wrong, I’m just trying to figure out where it comes from, aside from that Twitter account not adjusting for fuel load.

James Allison isn't using a random twitter account to figure out the pecking order. Where it comes from will be his own team's data engineers. We don't have access to this but you can assume it's a more thorough analysis.

With that said, one team can't know the real performance level of another team without knowing all the variables so I'd give a 1-2 tenths margin of error to anyone claiming exact gaps.

They did say they were 1s behind RBR. Ferrari thinks they are 0.3s behind RBR which seems reasonable actually and would give a 1s YoY improvement to RBR. One of the 2 isn’t right.

Probably the wrong one isn't right.