2024 pecking order predictions

[continuum16]

What is this, lmao. The genius are not factoring in who is starting with full fuel and who is not lmao

There's no indication of tire compound, time of day, or stint length either...It's really worthless.

Nah, Haas went from 2s of deg over 10 laps last year to better than Merc and Ferrari and we're gonna see Stroll vs Tsunoda for P3 come next weekend.

Source: trust me bro

[MtthsMlw]

Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Merc, Aston, Racing Bulls, Alpine, Williams, Haas, Sauber
don't @ me

[SirBastianVettel]

Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren, Aston Martin, RB, Sauber, Williams, Alpine, Haas

[brabham1955]

Red Bull
Ferrari
McLaren
Mercedes
Sauber
Aston Martin
RB
Alpine
Williams
Haas

[Xero]

Red Bull
Ferrari
McLaren / Mercedes
Aston Martin
RB
Sauber / Alpine / Williams
Haas

[AMG.Tzan]

I don’t know why many pundits put McLaren up on the top 3 even in 2nd some! Of course they may be sandbagging but from the test the car didn’t look that good! Not to mention also that the car almost looks like it has been carried over from last season with minimal changes compared to the changes brought by the top 4 cars!

For me right now McLaren is 5th! I may quite well be totally wrong here! For some reason I get the feeling that this was their base car and they’re planning a pretty big upgrade come Japan or Imola…

My race pace prediction:

1. Red Bull
+0,8
2.Ferrari
3.Mercedes
4.Aston Martin
5.McLaren
+0,3
6.Alpine
7.VisaRB
+0,3
8.Sauber
9.Williams
10.Haas

[Aesop]

Bahrain:
Max
Ferrari, Checo + .3
Mercedes +.4
Alonso, McLaren +.5

After Bahrain its still all to play for.
Both Ferrari and Mercedes have a platform they can build on, which they hadn't last year.
Then again, if the gap in Bahrain is more than half a second...

[TeamKoolGreen]

Red Bull
Ferrari/Mercedes
McLaren/Aston Martin
RB
Williams/Alpine
Sauber
Haas

[mendis]

Red Bull
Mercedes
Ferrari
Aston
McLaren
Remaining Doesn't Matter

[Jambier]

Very long season so it will evolve but

Red Bull
Ferrari
Mercedes/Aston/McLaren ( will evolve all year)
RB
Alpine
Williams/Stake
Haas

[Sevach]

I don’t know why many pundits put McLaren up on the top 3 even in 2nd some! Of course they may be sandbagging but from the test the car didn’t look that good! Not to mention also that the car almost looks like it has been carried over from last season with minimal changes compared to the changes brought by the top 4 cars!

For me right now McLaren is 5th! I may quite well be totally wrong here! For some reason I get the feeling that this was their base car and they’re planning a pretty big upgrade come Japan or Imola…

People have a hard time letting go of their preconceptions, people overrated Mercedes in 2022(some still overrate them honestly) because "no way they are this bad" and then we had to hear "when they figure out this porpoising thing look out" all season long.

In 2023 Mclaren made big progress and finished with a strong car, 2nd fastest on a number of tracks, no evidence to the contrary will dissuade some that this progress may have stalled.

Aston is the opposite they were the darlings of early 23, but their progress hit the wall big time... now i think they figured out how to improve, but barely anyone pays attention to them because they are the team that stalled in their progress last year.

Ferrari struggled with race pace and tires since late 2022 (started to evolve in this on late 23, but apparently not enough for the experts to take notice) so people put asterics next to their name saying they might be competitive in Q but will struggle in the race.

[CouncilorIrissa]

I don’t know why many pundits put McLaren up on the top 3 even in 2nd some! Of course they may be sandbagging but from the test the car didn’t look that good! Not to mention also that the car almost looks like it has been carried over from last season with minimal changes compared to the changes brought by the top 4 cars!

For me right now McLaren is 5th! I may quite well be totally wrong here! For some reason I get the feeling that this was their base car and they’re planning a pretty big upgrade come Japan or Imola…

People have a hard time letting go of their preconceptions, people overrated Mercedes in 2022(some still overrate them honestly) because "no way they are this bad" and then we had to hear "when they figure out this porpoising thing look out" all season long.

In 2023 Mclaren made big progress and finished with a strong car, 2nd fastest on a number of tracks, no evidence to the contrary will dissuade some that this progress may have stalled.

Aston is the opposite they were the darlings of early 23, but their progress hit the wall big time... now i think they figured out how to improve, but barely anyone pays attention to them because they are the team that stalled in their progress last year.

Ferrari struggled with race pace and tires since late 2022 (started to evolve in this on late 23, but apparently not enough for the experts to take notice) so people put asterics next to their name saying they might be competitive in Q but will struggle in the race.

Pretty much this. People don't really predict based on testing data, they usually take last years' results and adjust them slightly based on what the current pre-season narrative is.

[mendis]

Updated for race pace!!! Lots of number crunching on my own.

Red Bull
Mercedes (+0.6)
Aston (+0.8 )
Ferrari (+1.1)
McLaren (+1.6)

- Degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.
- Either McLaren is running last year's car or carried some severe problem in testing or totally screwed. Some of their long stints are really promising, but some are horrible. Piastri's race simulation really puts them in difficult position.

[BorisTheBlade]

McLaren being a bit behind is what AMuS and Motorsport Total are thinking as well - this is from the latter:



https://www.motorsport-total.com/formel ... s-24022403

[Chuckjr]

Great input from everybody.

I think Merc will still be recovering from their turd pod debacle but will out develop the likes of Aston, McLaren, and maaaaaaybe Ferrari. But they have an uphill slope more than others due to their own self-frustrations for the last few years. Can they pull their head out is a question I ask myself.

I think Ferrari is fast and will develop a lot this year. They will be the pressure behind Red Bull but I’ve no confidence Ferrari can actually out develop Red Bull. But imo they will pressure them and be first to pick up the scraps.

I’m not convinced that Macca have screwed the pooch like some think. They ended well last year and I think they will continue their upward trend. But they don’t have the resources that Merc has so I’m not convinced they will still be faster than Merc by years end. It depends if Merc have finally figured out what they are doing.

I would like to say Aston will be right there but their stagnation last year does not give me confidence they can sustain a long term upward trend. Hope I’m wrong about that because F1 is better when Fred has a competitive car. Glad Fred is going to Merc next year (that’s my assumption I know) as I think Merc will out develop Aston over the course of this year and will be faster than Aston all next year. If Merc can pull their head out, next year Fred will be a fly in the ointment for all the other teams.

Red Bull
Ferrari
McLaren
Mercedes/Aston tie
RB
the rest…