2024 Pre-Season Testing - Bahrain International Circuit, Feb 21 - 23

[AR3-GP]

I dont know why you mention the 2nd lap DRS change? when you remember Max starting first and not in the 1st lap having less than 1.1s from the 2nd? i dont remember a race when that didnt huppened.

Yes but it's different now. Before a lot of drivers probably resigned themselves to focusing on their own race. Now the driver behind knows they just need to keep up for 1 lap instead of 2 then they will have a free 5-7 tenths of a second a lap most likely from DRS.

It's just a theory of mine, but I do think it's going to change the dynamic of the races a lot.

[bluechris]

Yes but it's different now. Before a lot of drivers probably resigned themselves to focusing on their own race. Now the driver behind knows they just need to keep up for 1 lap instead of 2 then they will have a free 5-7 tenths of a second a lap most likely from DRS.

It's just a theory of mine, but I do think it's going to change the dynamic of the races a lot.

Oh haven't thought of that, yeah your thinking is not crazy and i agree with you.

[Sieper]

It will. It’s a big change.

[Cs98]

As for complaints and claims after my brief analysis of RB-Ferrari laps in a few occasions, I see Perez is used as some kind of proof of different mappings etc. What these claims fail to note is a decent difference in top speeds of RB cars in different laps during the same exact stint which extends beyond harvest-lap/push-lap switching. I've posted a few times about it last year, pointing out that Max was usually the one exhibiting bigger differences in Top Speed during any race - the later the race went on the higher the TS figures.

What emerged during 2023 is RB actually perfected with Honda some deployment strategies that extend the tyre life. Ferrari hired some engineers and started doing this as well in the second half of the season, but it wasn't as visible. The usual signs were and still are slower acceleration and lower TS figures at the beginning of each stint and highest figures in the lap before the in-lap. On Soft tyres, the effect was more pronounced (more often than not) than Mediums and Hards in each weekend.

Therefore, the following are comparisons of C3-compound stints of Perez 2023 race, Perez 2024 Day 2 1st stint and Verstappen Day 3 1st stint. Verstappen was only slightly more conservative during 1st stint in 2023 to keep in check any gearbox issues, so I'm not looking at that stint now. These are all 1st stints, Perez was running a full-race simulation on Day 2, so the only potential outlier concerning starting weight is Max on his stint.

https://i.ibb.co/Wp2WLcL/2024-bah-red-bull.jpg

Obvious outliers:

1) Perez was immediately pushing on SF straight in 2023 Race as he was overtaken by Leclerc in Lap 1 and was forced to push to stay ahead. He was also 1-1.5s away from Leclerc the whole time, so there was a notable draft from Leclerc on every straight.

2) Max' lap 18 on Day 3 was 2nd lap of the stint and he was harvesting the most during that particular lap. TS figure is the same as Perez Lap 24 on SF straight, but other straights show Max was harvesting more.

3) Max' figures on straights I noted as cases 2 (T3-T4) and 3 (T10-T11) are very much the same as Perez' figures on his Lap 31, while 4th straight (noted as case 5) is slightly slower for Max

4) Case 4 is Turn 12. This was a massive outlier for Max as I noted yesterday, while comparing with Aston, McLaren and Ferrari. Even in 2nd lap of 2024 Day 3 simulation, he was pushing a lot more than Perez was at any point we are observing. How much power does T12 consume at those speeds? How much power was consumed on his Lap 31 when he went in full throttle and kept accelerating all the time? Does this require extra deployment?

Some very good question we can't answer. One thing is clear - having the car, setup and skill to do it, Max was gaining 0.5-0.6s over Perez on every occasion in T12. Would it be worth harvesting more on straights and use the extra power available to pull this off? Absolutely. Is this what happened? Only RB can answer that.

The point of this post is not to argue that Max was using full-race-level power available during his stints. It wasn't the case for every lap in his simulated stints, just as it wasn't the case on every lap in any race last year. RB is doing things differently regarding deployment and this has been happening even in 2022 to a lesser extent (not sure if it was also there before). Their figures are spread far more during 1 stint and also the whole race more than their direct competitors (at least) even when they are leading unopposed. Which is why we can't take any 2 laps of RB cars at different times in different stints and compare them 1-on-1 and conclude that 1 lap showing lower TS figures and more harvesting as evidence that the whole stint (let alone race/sim) was performed at lower power levels.

Yes, there is a level of deployment variance on different laps. But the averages tell the story. Taking three random laps from Perez' middle stint and comparing them against three random Verstappen laps, the difference is stark. On the main straight it's only a few kph difference, not a lot (ignore the DRS lap). There's a big difference into T4, something like 7-9 kph on average. Similar on the back straight, 7-9kph difference on average. And a 3-4 kph difference into the final corner. You mention turn 12, this is a management corner, not power limited. You claim Perez was losing 5-6 tenths here every time. In the three random laps I picked he lost no more than a couple of tenths, on very similar looking traces to Max. Max ran very de-tuned and it's plainly obvious. Come Saturday there will be no hiding from that fact.

[Vanja #66]

This is a good post. 2 comments.

1) It remains to be seen whether RB still choose to limit their power usage in the opening stint if there is a challenge for position.

2) Perez race simulation is in the day time so I wouldn't read too much into cornering speeds. The track is much worse for Perez and also possible he's not comfortable with balance in high speed, like previous seasons.

Thanks 1) Agreed 2) Agreed

Yes, there is a level of deployment variance on different laps. But the averages tell the story. Taking three random laps from Perez' middle stint and comparing them against three random Verstappen laps, the difference is stark.

Of course it's a big difference, by stint 2 Perez was 20-25kg lighter than Max and could push harder. It's well established Max didn't do a race sim, but several stint sims with high fuel load, while Perez did a full race sim. Even Max' C3 stint is a stretch to compare with others, but we don't have anything better for now.

[Cs98]

This is a good post. 2 comments.

1) It remains to be seen whether RB still choose to limit their power usage in the opening stint if there is a challenge for position.

2) Perez race simulation is in the day time so I wouldn't read too much into cornering speeds. The track is much worse for Perez and also possible he's not comfortable with balance in high speed, like previous seasons.

Thanks 1) Agreed 2) Agreed

Yes, there is a level of deployment variance on different laps. But the averages tell the story. Taking three random laps from Perez' middle stint and comparing them against three random Verstappen laps, the difference is stark.

Of course it's a big difference, by stint 2 Perez was 20-25kg lighter than Max and could push harder. It's well established Max didn't do a race sim, but several stint sims with high fuel load, while Perez did a full race sim. Even Max' C3 stint is a stretch to compare with others, but we don't have anything better for now.

No, 20kgs of fuel doesn't result in 8kph on the end of straights. The difference would be negligible and is entirely the result of engine modes. You of course know this. Smells like trolling

[Vanja #66]

So you know for a fact Max isn't using any battery in T12 in any occasion and so T12 performance - which depends heavily on weight - is not a factor in deployment strategy and thus present it as evidence he is in fact undoubtedly harvesting more only to hide true pace?

[djones]

I know a lot of them do it.

But can anybody name one legitimate reason to hold back in testing when the first race is a week away?

To me, it offers nothing but a small negative. That negative is you never fully tested the car with everything running at peak together.

[Juzh]

Just 4 more days guys, then we'll know who sandbagged and who didn't.

This is from qualifying last year Ver P1 vs Lec P3. Q3 is the easiest to draw comparisons from. No sandbags were used by anyone and no one had meaningful slipstream. Ferrari had slight edge on most straights, and more time came from non-drsed straights. We're talking like a tenth or so, but it's visible.

[Juzh]

Can't agree as I don't believe your numbers to be accurate

Reaching Speed Trap line at different rate and reaching actual Top Speed are two different things. ST line is most often conservative and cars always keep accelerating beyond it, so it's not a reliable reference

Sometimes speed trap is positioned so moronically cars are already braking into it. Brazil T1, Vegas back straight..
Also depending on the track, during the race cars will often derate before speed trap, thus lowering their recorded top speed. Sometimes this is quite a big number.

[Xyz22]

Just 4 more days guys, then we'll know who sandbagged and who didn't.

This is from qualifying last year Ver P1 vs Lec P3. Q3 is the easiest to draw comparisons from. No sandbags were used by anyone and no one had meaningful slipstream. Ferrari had slight edge on most straights, and more time came from non-drsed straights. We're talking like a tenth or so, but it's visible.

https://i.imgur.com/ykOgwUz.jpeg

Ferrari had a low DWF wing for Bahrain last year IIRC, though.
I think that had a positive impact on straight line speed.

[Cs98]

So you know for a fact Max isn't using any battery in T12 in any occasion and so T12 performance - which depends heavily on weight - is not a factor in deployment strategy and thus present it as evidence he is in fact undoubtedly harvesting more only to hide true pace?

I know for a fact these cars are not power limited in T12 on race stints, they are grip/management limited, that's why they lift in that corner. The idea you would be saving energy on all 4 straights and deploying that in a high speed/high deg corner just tells me you haven't been paying attention to how these guys save tyres and manage stints for the past 10 years. That would be the exact opposite of what teams aim to do. They want to maximise straight line speed and manage in high speed corners to preserve tyre performance. Not to mention, the trade-off you are suggesting is way out of balance. He loses 4-10kph on the straights and he is supposed to use that extra deployment in one corner? No Max is using a conservative engine setting relative to Checo.

[Vanja #66]

Sometimes speed trap is positioned so moronically cars are already braking into it. Brazil T1, Vegas back straight..

Indeed

I know for a fact these cars are not power limited in T12 on race stints,

Being power limited is not the same as looking for best lap performance and testing different PU settings.

Arguing whether Max was or was not limited more or less on straights was not the point of my post yesterday, as I mentioned there as well, so I have no desire to go further into this topic. There was a misconception he was running highly detuned and this was proven to be incorrect.

[Cs98]

Sometimes speed trap is positioned so moronically cars are already braking into it. Brazil T1, Vegas back straight..

Indeed

I know for a fact these cars are not power limited in T12 on race stints,

Being power limited is not the same as looking for best lap performance and testing different PU settings.

Arguing whether Max was or was not limited more or less on straights was not the point of my post yesterday, as I mentioned there as well, so I have no desire to go further into this topic. There was a misconception he was running highly detuned and this was proven to be incorrect.

The point was you wouldn't be deploying in a turn that you are managing in.

As soon as you provide the evidence to back that up we will be ready to believe you. Until then I think it would be better to follow the relevant data and the reporting from the pit lane which all suggest they were running highly detuned.

[Seanspeed]

I know a lot of them do it.

But can anybody name one legitimate reason to hold back in testing when the first race is a week away?

To me, it offers nothing but a small negative. That negative is you never fully tested the car with everything running at peak together.

To avoid scrutiny, and for somebody expected to be the leader, aka Red Bull this year, you dont want to squash all the hype going into the start of the season. Red Bull are still first and foremost in this for the brand value(not unlike all but a handful of teams), and if F1 were to suffer a large decline in viewers, there's much less reason for Red Bull to want to continue with the sport.

It's the same reason Mercedes became the sandbag kings for quite a while there, playing games basically every single weekend to make things look closer leading into Saturday and Sunday so the media could still say, "Things are looking exciting!", which they were happy to do. They wanted to ensure people were still tuning in.

Overall though, I think these teams just have so much more confidence in their data and simulations and whatnot to really feel prepared without needing to run at full tilt. It's a similar reason they dont need two or three different tests anymore to be ready for the first race weekend.