Christian Horner under Investigation

[Watto]

Hamilton has the best nose in F1 where to go to win. That Hamilton left Merc has a reason, it clearly tells that he is convinced that Ferrari will be better in 2026...they are already now.
I guess they will use all politics to be able to stay at RedBull and Newey for 2026 and they want to win 2025. Moving away from RedBull means loosing the 2025 title as the situation is today, we should not forget this.

with Lewis I wonder if he known now he won’t or is very unlikely win an 8th WDC. He can go to Ferrari and maybe not win one with them but maybe help them turn things around set them up in the following years - Lewis/Bono have always been pretty good with race strategy Ferrari for years have been abysmal there are areas he can influence

He is going there to win, isn't he? The whole setup with moving to them one year before the rule change is to prepare to win. However this is done.
But let us stay on the topic: What should Max convince that Merc is a winner in 2026? As said...if there would bei 2013 money, Ham would have stayed.

He’s want to see how the year pans out first but I struggle to see why he’d move. RB build a car that very much suits Max why move.

[Watto]

What are the relative positions/tensions here then guys?

Horner
Marko
Thai Owners
Austrian Owners

Where and what problems lie here?

It seems fairly clear there is a major power struggle but I’m trying to understand the basics of where people are not aligned, and moreover, why not?

Most of it is supposition. There are nowhere near enough facts out to deduce anything. However Mateschitz’s death seems to have shifted the sands internally on governance. I think Horner wanted more independence and just use Red Bull branding whilst having total autonomy, whereas Mintzlaff (likely) saw a Porsche deal as the better future.
Now it seems Horner won that battle and got his RBPT/Ford deal but he might be losing the war.
This is in total guess work but this is how it looks!

That does not excuse Horner in any way IF (and this is still a big IF) if those screenshots are his or even part his. Office romances (short and long term) happen the world over, but a no is a no.
Where there is smoke, there is fire. But without the facts I can’t make any useful deduction

Actually makes a lot of sense why Mintzlaff wanted the Porsche deal helps remove the financial strain under Mateschitz’s it was almost his own personal project didn’t really care about the money if they got the results

[ScottB]

Why would Horner resign now of his own volition now? He's had his employer public say the case against him has been dismissed, and the the dirty laundry to provide leverage to get him to resign has already been released publicly. The only logic i can see to that outcome is the report has determined he has committed a serious ethical violation and either recommends or strongly suggests he should be removed and Red Bull hasn't followed that advice. This also requires the leaker to be fully aware of the outcomes of the report, while also not having access it, because if they had leaked this report he would most likely have been fired within a day of it leaking. If the report is like this, I suspect Horner is living on borrowed time and will either resign or be fired soon.

Ultimately, leadership requires consent to lead.

This internal process ended in the dismissal of the complaint, not a vindication. But we can conclude that whoever had the deciding vote (the Thai’s allegedly) decided it wasn’t enough to sack him.

Next, we get all this content leaked. I don’t think media pressure makes Horner walk, but what it could do is break that internal consent. What was Christian saying to Newey, to Max et al during this process? If he’s insisted he was never screwing the PR girls, and now we’ve got a bunch of texts saying he was, how are those personal relationships that his leadership is based on?

Even with the more rank and file, we often hear F1 teams are built on folk going the extra mile, they need that motivation from leadership. Can he still walk into the factory and inspire that, or will it be greeted with a reaction of ‘aye sure, I’ll stay late while you’re sneaking off with your secretary?’

That’s ultimately what the purpose of leaking this content is, it could make his position untenable internally. That’s essentially what Jos has said.

[ScottB]

What are the relative positions/tensions here then guys?

Horner
Marko
Thai Owners
Austrian Owners

Where and what problems lie here?

It seems fairly clear there is a major power struggle but I’m trying to understand the basics of where people are not aligned, and moreover, why not?

Most of it is supposition. There are nowhere near enough facts out to deduce anything. However Mateschitz’s death seems to have shifted the sands internally on governance. I think Horner wanted more independence and just use Red Bull branding whilst having total autonomy, whereas Mintzlaff (likely) saw a Porsche deal as the better future.
Now it seems Horner won that battle and got his RBPT/Ford deal but he might be losing the war.
This is in total guess work but this is how it looks!

That does not excuse Horner in any way IF (and this is still a big IF) if those screenshots are his or even part his. Office romances (short and long term) happen the world over, but a no is a no.
Where there is smoke, there is fire. But without the facts I can’t make any useful deduction

Actually makes a lot of sense why Mintzlaff wanted the Porsche deal helps remove the financial strain under Mateschitz’s it was almost his own personal project didn’t really care about the money if they got the results

A fair conclusion would be that DM loved F1 and wanted to win, but for Red Bull now he’s gone, it’s marketing first. Having Horner in control of two valuable assets and being a very public face for that brand may be considered uncomfortable, particularly if he blocked a path to having the same marketing benefit for less outlay.

[Vinlarr89]

If Horner is staying put, then he needs to stamp his authority and get Jos out of the picture. I’ve always felt that Jos lingering around is a bad look for the team, and has the impression of far too much Verstappen influence behind the scenes. Max is a great driver, and really doesn’t need Jos getting involved in his career any more. I think if anything has the potential to rip the team apart it’s Jos’ overburdening influence. If Horner has been cleared by RBR then the team need to stick by the decision, quell the media and move on together

[TFSA]

Actually makes a lot of sense why Mintzlaff wanted the Porsche deal helps remove the financial strain under Mateschitz’s it was almost his own personal project didn’t really care about the money if they got the results

Don't take this the wrong way, but I don't think you quite understand the marketing value the Red Bull Formula 1 team has for the Red Bull brand. We're probably talking several billion dollars.

Formula 1 was still going strong when the economics were way worse than they are now, and teams were losing money left and right. Some went bankrupt back in the days, but the worry here certainly isn't wether Red Bull Racing is paying the bills. They absolutely are.

[Watto]

Most of it is supposition. There are nowhere near enough facts out to deduce anything. However Mateschitz’s death seems to have shifted the sands internally on governance. I think Horner wanted more independence and just use Red Bull branding whilst having total autonomy, whereas Mintzlaff (likely) saw a Porsche deal as the better future.
Now it seems Horner won that battle and got his RBPT/Ford deal but he might be losing the war.
This is in total guess work but this is how it looks!

That does not excuse Horner in any way IF (and this is still a big IF) if those screenshots are his or even part his. Office romances (short and long term) happen the world over, but a no is a no.
Where there is smoke, there is fire. But without the facts I can’t make any useful deduction

Actually makes a lot of sense why Mintzlaff wanted the Porsche deal helps remove the financial strain under Mateschitz’s it was almost his own personal project didn’t really care about the money if they got the results

A fair conclusion would be that DM loved F1 and wanted to win, but for Red Bull now he’s gone, it’s marketing first. Having Horner in control of two valuable assets and being a very public face for that brand may be considered uncomfortable, particularly if he blocked a path to having the same marketing benefit for less outlay.

can understand why Horner may not want that having to deal with both the RB and Porsche boards I think Marko helped kill the deal too likely for the same reason

[Watto]

Actually makes a lot of sense why Mintzlaff wanted the Porsche deal helps remove the financial strain under Mateschitz’s it was almost his own personal project didn’t really care about the money if they got the results

Don't take this the wrong way, but I don't think you quite understand the marketing value the Red Bull Formula 1 team has for the Red Bull brand. We're probably talking several billion dollars.

Formula 1 was still going strong when the economics were way worse than they are now, and teams were losing money left and right. Some went bankrupt back in the days, but the worry here certainly isn't wether Red Bull Racing is paying the bills. They absolutely are.

Not disputing that al all RB we’re going keep a large financial presence in the sport and team not the cost of developing an engine the Merc team also has Ineo/jim Clark as a part owner that can help fund things along side Mercedes Porsche would just have been a similar deal

[Mogster]

Actually makes a lot of sense why Mintzlaff wanted the Porsche deal helps remove the financial strain under Mateschitz’s it was almost his own personal project didn’t really care about the money if they got the results

A fair conclusion would be that DM loved F1 and wanted to win, but for Red Bull now he’s gone, it’s marketing first. Having Horner in control of two valuable assets and being a very public face for that brand may be considered uncomfortable, particularly if he blocked a path to having the same marketing benefit for less outlay.

can understand why Horner may not want that having to deal with both the RB and Porsche boards I think Marko helped kill the deal too likely for the same reason

I thought Red Bull was privately owned, so no difficult board members as with Mercedes and the DAG, just owners.

Agree that now Mateschitz is gone the wheels are off, F1 appears to have been his hobby project, now it’s just business for Red Bull. The sale to VAG always seemed to be Mateschitz’s way of leaving things in a tidy fashion, but that didn’t happen. I just surprised it too so long for things to sour.

[PapayaFan481]

If Horner is staying put, then he needs to stamp his authority and get Jos out of the picture. I’ve always felt that Jos lingering around is a bad look for the team, and has the impression of far too much Verstappen influence behind the scenes. Max is a great driver, and really doesn’t need Jos getting involved in his career any more. I think if anything has the potential to rip the team apart it’s Jos’ overburdening influence. If Horner has been cleared by RBR then the team need to stick by the decision, quell the media and move on together

Where was he "cleared" by Red Bull? The case was dismissed, that is very much NOT the same thing.

[Vinlarr89]

Okay dismissed, makes no difference to the context, they have made their decision, now they need to back their man.

[TFSA]

If Horner is staying put, then he needs to stamp his authority and get Jos out of the picture. I’ve always felt that Jos lingering around is a bad look for the team, and has the impression of far too much Verstappen influence behind the scenes. Max is a great driver, and really doesn’t need Jos getting involved in his career any more. I think if anything has the potential to rip the team apart it’s Jos’ overburdening influence. If Horner has been cleared by RBR then the team need to stick by the decision, quell the media and move on together

Where was he "cleared" by Red Bull? The case was dismissed, that is very much NOT the same thing.

He was cleared to continue as acting team principal. That's a valid linguistic statement.

[chrisc90]

[taperoo2k]

Max to Merc for 2025?

Toto: anything is possible

Weirder things have happened in F1. I guess if Horner survives this, he might still end up being shoved out the door in 2026 if the Red Bull Powertrains project is an expensive dud.

If Max were to leave RBR for Mercedes? He might be bored by winning all the time and wants a
challenge. Though I think he'll remain where is at least until 2026 to see how things go.

[venkyhere]

From motorsport.com :

For now, the Horner situation is an unknown variable and whether or not he remains in place is hard to predict, especially if the campaign to discredit him gets more aggressive in the forthcoming days.

And no matter how defiant Horner is about staying in place, his fate will almost certainly be decided in the boardrooms of Red Bull and its corporate sponsors who will be paying a watching brief over all that is happening.

Wolff too is observing from the sidelines, and will not be blind to the possibility that circumstances could play out that hand him an unexpected gift.

But equally, he knows he has to get his own house in order because while Verstappen may be attractive to Mercedes, the desire to move there will not be so great if the squad's F1 car does not show better performance.

Wolff himself was asked on Saturday night in Bahrain if there was a chance that Verstappen could drive at Mercedes in 2025 – and he gave a carefully considered response.

"I think the driver will always choose the quickest car," he said. "That is fundamentally what it's all about. At the moment the Red Bull is the quickest car, so that will obviously be the priority."

Read into that answer what you will. But it was not a 'no'.