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Will Verstappen join Mercedes?
Lewis Hamilton's move to Ferrari has left a vacancy at Mercedes. The hottest candidate at the moment is Max Verstappen. Despite a Red Bull contract until 2028, the Horner affair could open the door to the outside world.
At first, it all sounds quite unlikely. Max Verstappen has a valid contract with Red Bull until 2028 and the Dutchman is in the best car. The season opener in Bahrain confirmed that. Why should the world champion leave this comfort zone?
There will be a vacancy at Mercedes in 2025 due to Lewis Hamilton's move to Ferrari. The contracts of 13 of the 20 drivers in the current field expire at the end of the year. All of them are keen on the open Mercedes cockpit. Mercedes would also have access to super talent Andrea Kimi Antonelli, and they could also persuade Formula 1 retiree Sebastian Vettel to make a comeback.
But at the moment, Max Verstappen is the hottest candidate for the Mercedes seat alongside George Russell. Not possible, you say? Anything goes in Formula 1. More and more evidence suggests that the sensational transfer could happen. And the affair surrounding Christian Horner is the lever for it. Or a welcome occasion.
Like Schumacher to Ferrari
Red Bull Sport boss Helmut Marko is concerned that the turmoil in the team could drive away not only Verstappen, but also star designer Adrian Newey and future engine partner Ford. Team boss Horner apparently believes that things can be done without his key figures. McLaren boss Ron Dennis once believed the same in the delusion of too much success. Until he successively lost constructor John Barnard, Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna.
Mercedes neither confirmed nor denied the Verstappen question. Toto Wolff responded after the Bahrain GP with a general statement: "The fastest drivers always want to be in the fastest car. And Red Bull currently has the fastest car."
The same was said of Michael Schumacher in 1995. And yet he went to Ferrari. Because he was convinced that a continuation of the Benetton winning streak would not make him any bigger. Only if he became world champion with several teams, especially with such a brilliant brand as Ferrari, which had not won anything for so long, would that be the step to true greatness. What Ferrari once was for Schumacher, Mercedes might be for Verstappen.
The Horner case as a means to an end
Another indication of a future at Mercedes is the timing of events. The Horner case has been simmering within the company since December. Why did the accusations against the Red Bull team boss for alleged inappropriate behavior towards a female employee come to light exactly four days after the Hamilton transfer became known? And why did a Dutch newspaper come forward twice with details of the story?
The Verstappen clan denies having anything to do with the anonymously circulated screenshots that allegedly show the chat history between Horner and the employee in question. In the same breath, however, he says that the team boss is no longer acceptable in his position. Knowing full well that the Thai Red Bull faction will play Horner's patron saint to the bitter end.
In this case, Toto Wolff is calling for the greatest possible transparency and a clear commitment to today's standard compliance rules, thereby automatically adding fuel to the fire. Anyone in his situation would do that because it increases the pressure. In Formula 1, everyone is their own boss, and having Verstappen or not having him can make the difference between winning and losing.
What will Alonso do?
It is not yet clear what is driving Verstappen's entourage to force Horner out of office. It must be more than just some marketing rights that are denied to the champion at Red Bull, but which he could get at Mercedes. Also more than a lack of respect, if Horner really believes he can win the title with any driver.
It could also be that Verstappen's management wants to bring the fastest driver of our time to Mercedes anyway, because there he can become a superhero and an ambassador for a brand that is one of the ten most important in the world. And because he perhaps has more confidence in Mercedes for the new engine formula from 2026 than his own engine project RB Powertrains. The Horner case would then only be a means to an end. Regardless of the outcome.
If Verstappen were to leave Red Bull for Mercedes, the most attractive cockpit in sporting terms would become available at Red Bull. And all those who are still eyeing the vacancy at Mercedes will switch their chips to Red Bull. Fernando Alonso, whose manager Flavio Briatore is on equally good terms with Wolff and Horner, is at the top of the list. The Spaniard may not officially want to make a fundamental decision about his future for a few weeks, but with these options the answer should be pretty clear.
Everyone else will have to wait until the top spots are filled. Like Carlos Sainz and Nico Hülkenberg, they can only keep themselves in the conversation through strong performances. Sebastian Vettel explained in an interview with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung that a comeback is not an urgent issue and that he still has time at the age of 36. In this case, waiting is the wrong approach.
