2024 Scuderia Ferrari F1 Team

[f1316]

I think folks are missing the point here about this supposed 0.25s upgrade (and, like, that’s phenomenally broad/vague anyway - ie on which track type, track length etc?):

A) that’s a big upgrade. Under stable regs, teams will often find half a second or so between two entirely different cars/seasons. So this is a step change (if true)
B) Ferrari were about 0.35s behind Max in race pace at Suzuka, one of their worst tracks relative to RB. Without an upgrade at all, they are competitive at Melbourne and fancy their chances at Miami. Even places where we say 0.35-0.4s is genuinely the delta, then this shrinks that to 0.1-0.15s - that’s raceable. You can play with strategies and/or it’s hard to overtake with that kind of pace differential. So this means you can show up at most tracks and be in with a chance - that’s what racing is about.

[AR3-GP]

B) Ferrari were about 0.35s behind Max in race pace at Suzuka, one of their worst tracks relative to RB. Without an upgrade at all, they are competitive at Melbourne and fancy their chances at Miami. Even places where we say 0.35-0.4s is genuinely the delta, then this shrinks that to 0.1-0.15s - that’s raceable. You can play with strategies and/or it’s hard to overtake with that kind of pace differential. So this means you can show up at most tracks and be in with a chance - that’s what racing is about.

Ferrari is quite strong relative to Red Bull in terms of aerodynamic efficiency and high speed cornering with the SF24 package. They even have good tire degradation on a track that is hard on tires. Suzuka isn't their "weak track".

It's the slow corners where Ferrari don't look as competitive with Red Bull now. Last year they dominated Red bull in slow corners. This year they are slower than Red Bull in them.

[Xyz22]

B) Ferrari were about 0.35s behind Max in race pace at Suzuka, one of their worst tracks relative to RB. Without an upgrade at all, they are competitive at Melbourne and fancy their chances at Miami. Even places where we say 0.35-0.4s is genuinely the delta, then this shrinks that to 0.1-0.15s - that’s raceable. You can play with strategies and/or it’s hard to overtake with that kind of pace differential. So this means you can show up at most tracks and be in with a chance - that’s what racing is about.

Ferrari is quite strong relative to Red Bull in terms of aerodynamic efficiency and high speed cornering with the SF24 package. They even have good tire degradation on a track that is hard on tires. Suzuka isn't their "weak track".

It's the slow corners where Ferrari don't look as competitive with Red Bull now. Last year they dominated Red bull in slow corners. This year they are slower than Red Bull in them.

Ferrari dominated in qualifying. In the races they were slower everywhere outside very specific corners (90 degrees) and only in some tracks.
Even in Vegas Sainz said that relatively to quali and RB they were losing up to 0.4s, even (much) more in other tracks that required a different aero configuration.

[Andres125sx]

You are counting the in-laps as one of the 4 laps.

The averages that were provided are 100% correct

Last 4 laps are last 4 laps. Or maybe in-laps are discounted from race time and I didn´t know?

Of course, they will be slower because they are going into the pit lane, it skews the mean lap time therefore it's considered an outlier. This pretty standard stuff.

If we count outliers, then we might as well count laps that were done under yellow flag, but it won't give us an accurate representation of the pace. I don't get what you are getting at, it's been done like this forever, literally.

I simply try to be accurate, surprising that this surprise you at F1T

3 tenths faster in last 4 laps (Lec 37.9 vs Sai 38.2), is useless if then you´re 2.7 seconds slower at the in-lap (Lec 43.1 vs Sai 40.4), fact is in those 4-5 laps Sainz was 1.5 seconds faster

[Vanja #66]

Andres, please stop picking pointless fights all the time

[Vanja #66]

.250 is very good if true

Very good if true is a good assessment It's not great, but it's not just good either. Just good is 1-2 tenths - if it works! Allegedly, RB20 Suzuka upgrade was 2 tenths and I'd argue we saw this in Q gaps, which were the biggest since the start of the year. RB20 and SF24 have shown they will work better on different types of tracks and Ferrari will have to look to exploit this on tracks that will favour them.

[CaribouBread]

Corriere dello Sport and FUnoAnalisiTecnica reporting that Sainz has been offered a 1+1 deal by Mercedes. Lets see if we get any more info about this today.

[yooogurt]

I'm very disappointed that these updates which took so long to prepare will only give 0.2-0.25s. I hope this is just a modest estimate and the real gain will be at least 0.4s.

You're missing the point that having a more efficient load in the corners indirectly gives the technicians greater scope for more aggressive mechanical settings.
It's not just about getting tempo in tenths, but improving your current weaknesses will also give you a boost.

[deadhead]

.250 is very good if true

Very good if true is a good assessment It's not great, but it's not just good either. Just good is 1-2 tenths - if it works! Allegedly, RB20 Suzuka upgrade was 2 tenths and I'd argue we saw this in Q gaps, which were the biggest since the start of the year. RB20 and SF24 have shown they will work better on different types of tracks and Ferrari will have to look to exploit this on tracks that will favour them.

Which tracks do you think will be favorable?

I guess we need to wait and see if the upgrade package changes the behavior of the car first because if they fix the slow speed corners that equation will change…

I know it’s more nuanced but If RB’s upgrade was worth .200 and Ferrari’s is going to be worth .250 the net gain there isn’t all that great.

I’m hoping that RB wont be able to match the remaining two upgrades from Ferrari like this

[Xyz22]

Remember the rumors before the season where Ferrari had gained a relatively "small" amount of performance. In race trim the SF 24 has been over 1.5s faster compared to the SF 23.

We'll have to wait and see the overall scope of the upgrades. I think the car improved already from Bahrain looking at the gap with RB in Suzuka (after they brought their first upgrade).

Moreover, we have not seen the full potential of the current car as well because Leclerc has been mediocre in qualifying and that compromised his race in terms of pure pace. We know that Charles can be quicker than Carlos, so there is still quite a room for improvement.

Having said that being able to compete with the RB 20 for the win will only be possible by bringing a full package, that is a car in which the drivers can extract the max amount of performance on a regular basis in all sessions (qualifying and race). Starting behind a car that is not a Red Bull would immediately mean that they won't be able to challenge for the win. Lot of work to do.

[deadhead]

Yes of course if the launch spec is actually much closer to the RB20 and it just needed better set up and understanding that's great. Luckily we have two more races to evaluate what the base SF24 has to offer, including a sprint weekend, whic has been a strong point for the team for a while now.

[Vanja #66]

Which tracks do you think will be favorable?

I guess we need to wait and see if the upgrade package changes the behavior of the car first because if they fix the slow speed corners that equation will change…

I know it’s more nuanced but If RB’s upgrade was worth .200 and Ferrari’s is going to be worth .250 the net gain there isn’t all that great.

I’m hoping that RB wont be able to match the remaining two upgrades from Ferrari like this

If Ferrari are able to keep up with RB development this year and get a bit closer every time, they might be able to put more and more pressure in the races. This is the basis of Vasseur's plan to get back to the top - full focus on race pace and best deg of the field allows them more freedom with in-race strategy and tactics. Top-level race execution like we saw so far wasn't there for a long time and hopefully everyone in the team is fully onboard to make that a new standard level.

Having said that, I don't think they will want to put emphasis on Qualy in too many races, other than the races where overtaking is extremely difficult. What we've seen so far is RB being better on tracks where they can get really low, so no bumps and no high kerbs that need riding often. Ferrari is able to run the car better in those conditions. RB is better in 220+ corners, Ferrari is better in 120-180 corners, while low-speed performance depends on their setup choices, it was different in practically every race form the top of my head.

So with all that, I think Ferrari will be able to get close to RB in Shanghai, Miami and Imola and possibly challenge for the win in Monaco and Canada. Further races will depend on updates on both cars, no need to go too far ahead. Hotter races should work a bit in Ferrari's favour as well.

[Seanspeed]

It's not a small jump, but after almost three months since the test and having little to no updates til then, and at a race where most every team will show up with notable upgrades, it's probably not gonna 'propel them forward' that much, either.

Having the ability to actually be faster after your upgrades is something that fans take for granted . Teams are incredibly relieved when their correlation works, even if they are not the fastest team.

True, I'm not suggesting that every team will uniformly improve along with us, and I did suggest Ferrari could still make some level of leap forward.

But Red Bull in particular are pretty good at doing upgrades when they need to, so in a direct development race with them, starting from the backfoot, I'd say it will be extremely hard to actually catch up.

And your post also goes both ways - it's no guarantee Ferrari's upgrade will work, or at least work as well as expected, either. Just saying, if 2.5 tenths is what they actually achieve, I still expect things to be fairly similar to what are they now, where we're more closely racing with Mclaren, Aston and Mercedes than we are Red Bull. Mclaren seem to understand their car pretty well now and should have something significant for Europe, and of course Red Bull should have something as well. We cant just subtract 2.5 tenths from the current picture, cuz others will be improving, too.

[deadhead]

Which tracks do you think will be favorable?

I guess we need to wait and see if the upgrade package changes the behavior of the car first because if they fix the slow speed corners that equation will change…

I know it’s more nuanced but If RB’s upgrade was worth .200 and Ferrari’s is going to be worth .250 the net gain there isn’t all that great.

I’m hoping that RB wont be able to match the remaining two upgrades from Ferrari like this

If Ferrari are able to keep up with RB development this year and get a bit closer every time, they might be able to put more and more pressure in the races. This is the basis of Vasseur's plan to get back to the top - full focus on race pace and best deg of the field allows them more freedom with in-race strategy and tactics. Top-level race execution like we saw so far wasn't there for a long time and hopefully everyone in the team is fully onboard to make that a new standard level.

Having said that, I don't think they will want to put emphasis on Qualy in too many races, other than the races where overtaking is extremely difficult. What we've seen so far is RB being better on tracks where they can get really low, so no bumps and no high kerbs that need riding often. Ferrari is able to run the car better in those conditions. RB is better in 220+ corners, Ferrari is better in 120-180 corners, while low-speed performance depends on their setup choices, it was different in practically every race form the top of my head.

So with all that, I think Ferrari will be able to get close to RB in Shanghai, Miami and Imola and possibly challenge for the win in Monaco and Canada. Further races will depend on updates on both cars, no need to go too far ahead. Hotter races should work a bit in Ferrari's favour as well.

Thanks for the insight!

What about Texas? CoTA is on the bumpy side as well I think.

[Vanja #66]

Thanks for the insight!

What about Texas? CoTA is on the bumpy side as well I think.

Yes, but like I said, no need to go beyond Canada at this point, some things may change in 2 months. Both teams are quite active and working hard.