2024 Monaco Grand Prix - Monte Carlo, May 24 - 26

[venkyhere]

My prediction :
NOR to lead Q1 and Q2 , only to crash in Q3 swimming pool chicane by touching barrier.

Qualifying
LEC P1
PIA P2 +0.02
RUS P3 +0.3

Race
PIA P1
LEC P2
+--Huge gap---+
RUS P3

How does Piastri overtake Leclerc? Ferrari disasterclass in the pits? Ferrari strategy disasterclass? Leclerc error? Legitimate overtake on pure pace? Rain?

Pure pace. Undercut working better due to tyre warmup difference

[deadhead]

[bananapeel23]

My prediction :
NOR to lead Q1 and Q2 , only to crash in Q3 swimming pool chicane by touching barrier.

Qualifying
LEC P1
PIA P2 +0.02
RUS P3 +0.3

Race
PIA P1
LEC P2
+--Huge gap---+
RUS P3

How does Piastri overtake Leclerc? Ferrari disasterclass in the pits? Ferrari strategy disasterclass? Leclerc error? Legitimate overtake on pure pace? Rain?

Pure pace. Undercut working better due to tyre warmup difference

Undercutting doesn't work in Monaco because you will just come out of the pits behind a car that is going long. Monaco is THE overcutting track.

Although I wouldn't put it past the Ferrari strategy team to so something as outrageously stupid as attempting to undercut from the lead.

[PlatinumZealot]

Hmm... Actually undercutting has worked in the past with good effect. It all depends on the nature of trye wear on that day and how much "recoil" is held back in the train when the teams trundle around playing musical chairs in the first stint.

[FittingMechanics]

When did they change to FPs on Friday? I haven't followed friday practices in Monaco for a few years so maybe it was not a recent change.

I do see they are doing some F3 running today.

[Schippke]

I think it’ll be an extremely close fight for pole between Max and both McLaren’s for Pole… despite Ferrari’s riding well over bumps, they don’t seem as strong compared to previous years in lower speed corners so they might be a bit behind… but cannot discount Leclerc to get a lap together and overcome that… and the horribly unlucky in the race too.

I’ve got a feeling Mercedes might play a bigger part here than at any other race so far…

[bluechris]

Who will bin it? is there any bet on that somewhere? i feel big pressure in the top teams as matter the pole

[mclaren111]

When did they change to FPs on Friday? I haven't followed friday practices in Monaco for a few years so maybe it was not a recent change.

I do see they are doing some F3 running today.

I think it's a different weekend / time this year... Previous year's the Friday was a National Holiday...

[michl420]

Friday training is at least since 2 years (I think it´s a Liberty media thing).

[bananapeel23]

When did they change to FPs on Friday? I haven't followed friday practices in Monaco for a few years so maybe it was not a recent change.

I do see they are doing some F3 running today.

I think it changed with the contract renewal for 2023. It was a concession the principality had to make to keep their free slot on the calendar.

[dren]

Who will bin it? is there any bet on that somewhere? i feel big pressure in the top teams as matter the pole

Oh how we miss The Allmighty Grossjean!

I'd put my money on Sarg and Hammy. Alonso could if they don't get that car sorted, too.

[venkyhere]

Undercutting doesn't work in Monaco because you will just come out of the pits behind a car that is going long. Monaco is THE overcutting track.

Although I wouldn't put it past the Ferrari strategy team to so something as outrageously stupid as attempting to undercut from the lead.

you are assuming that there wont be 'trains' formed. The gap between Ferrari/Redbull/McLaren as a group, and the rest is huge. I expect an Alonso train. Undercutting might actually help get in front of such a train, rather than into it. Trying to overcut may result in bottling up behind it, where you end up with 1.5 fast laps, when you really wanted 2 fast laps of squeezing out the last bit of pace left in your first tyre.

[bananapeel23]

Undercutting doesn't work in Monaco because you will just come out of the pits behind a car that is going long. Monaco is THE overcutting track.

Although I wouldn't put it past the Ferrari strategy team to so something as outrageously stupid as attempting to undercut from the lead.

you are assuming that there wont be 'trains' formed. The gap between Ferrari/Redbull/McLaren as a group, and the rest is huge. I expect an Alonso train. Undercutting might actually help get in front of such a train, rather than into it. Trying to overcut may result in bottling up behind it, where you end up with 1.5 fast laps, when you really wanted 2 fast laps of squeezing out the last bit of pace left in your first tyre.

No I'm totally expecting a train, which is why undercutting isn't viable.

I'm expecting a car that undercuts to catch up to a train and get stuck in said train. Yes, if there is a massive gap between trains that opens up between, say, Alonso and Russell, you might be able to pit into said gap and catch back up to the first train, making an undercut viable.

The problem is that you can't overtake in Monaco. The car that is in the lead can always simply back the "fast train" up during stint one to prevent the gap between the "fast train" and "Slow train" from forming in the first place, meaning that undercutting never becomes viable. If the cars behind pit, they end up in the train. If they go long with the leader, the leader keeps backing them up so they can't pit without getting stuck. If the cars behind pit, the leader goes for a mad dash on tyres that are still in good shape because he never pushed, opening up the gap between the "fast train" and the "slow train", then pits into that gap, while the others were forced to pit into the slow train.

The only way this doesn't work is if the entire "slow train" pits before the cars fighting for the lead do, which is unlikely, because going long is viable in the slow train for the same reasons.

[Vanja #66]

In a dry track, highly unlikely will see big gaps to Mercedes. Running high reduces the influence of the floor and that will get them back in, bridging the gap to the midfield. AMR is a bit of an unknown, but I doubt they will be silly enough to chase performance over driveability and consistency, they won't fight for pole and it's not worth the risk.

[deadhead]

Who will bin it? is there any bet on that somewhere? i feel big pressure in the top teams as matter the pole

LEC highest chance.. he will “send it” for sure and we would either get something ala 2022 or a barrier visit