Leclerc may not have been in higher PU mode to Hamilton, Alonso, McLarens or Sainz, but Max was running lower PU to all of them on his fastest lap. Easy 3-4 tenths lost overall. Combined with 3-4 tenths they'll make up over night, puts him as the slight favourite for pole in my view. This is the same we've seen in Melbourne and Imola and they'll again recover tonight. Perhaps Max is not a massive favourite, but it will take a big effort from Leclerc tomorrow. Or a big setup mistake from RB. And that's without counting in Mercedes' strong form and believing McLaren won't improve, which would be silly. Everyone's close and anything can happen.
The really positive thing is tyre warm up doesn't seem to be an issue, Leclerc struggled with traffic on Softs rather than the tyre itself and feels like he can improve some more until Q. His focus on Q pace and effort on track is very commendable. Sainz needs to pick up the pace, not having him at the top will leave the team vulnerable to strategy games from others in the race. It's a really strange situation with him