AR3-GP wrote: ↑09 Sep 2024, 17:51
Emag wrote: ↑09 Sep 2024, 17:47
You compare RedBull with everyone, but if you remove RedBull from the picture, there are no outliers. McLaren gained some on Ferrari (quite reasonable considering the huge update). Ferrari got closer again with the Imola package.
Mercedes was a bit lost after Saudi and they were nowhere for a while, but their gap to Ferrari and McLaren was stable. In fact by Imola they had improved quite a bit (check quali gaps and racepace gaps), but the front wing gave them another 1.5 tenths that put them a bit closer. Then they were flattered a bit by colder weekends which their car loves, but still, the gap to McLaren / Ferrari remains reasonable.
I didn't compare to everyone. I only compared to Mercedes, Ferrari, and Mclaren. Mclaren was behind Mercedes at the start of the season. You say it's just Ferrari that Mclaren "gained some" on but it isn't.
Mclaren went from behind Mercedes to 35 seconds in front by the end of the race in Imola.
Mercedes was a bit lost after Saudi and they were nowhere for a while, but their gap to Ferrari and McLaren was stable.
As I said before.
Mercedes was ahead of Mclaren at the start of the year, and finished 35 seconds behind them in Imola. You claim this was a stable gap and claim this change is not an outlier. Your entire argument is based on something that isn't true.
Ferrari already rivaled Red Bull in Australia so why couldn't they rival them in Miami which was hot and suited their car. You say the cold races flatter Mercedes, but hot races also helped Ferrari.
What exactly makes you say this?
In Bahrain McLaren was struggling with a bad setup and dropping almost 0.2s every lap in the last corner, yet they had
better race-pace overall compared to both Mercs even if they had worse track-position.
After Bahrain, you have to jump to Canada to get a Mercedes that is anywhere near McLaren's level.
You say that my entire argument is based on something that isn't true, when in fact what I say is entirely based on what actually has happened and on the data that we have.
Discounting Australia since we don't know what pace Max would have had, you have
Bahrain,
Saudi,
Japan and
China where RedBull literally had no competition with the closest competitor being at least 0.4s behind (with China being the only exception where they were so far ahead everyone, people were getting ready to throw this season into the bin as well).
Then comes
Miami and RedBull has no advantage whatsoever.
But the most interesting thing to note is the gap McLaren has to Ferrari. They're ~0.2-0.3s behind for Bahrain, Saudi and Japan. Only ~0.1s behind in Australia. And they're ahead in China because of the cooler temps (Mercedes still struggling with their car even though Hamilton had a great lap in the Sprint Quali).
But from Miami onwards, McLaren maintains a comfortable ~0.1-0.2s gap to Ferrari, which is a reasonable amount to gain on them considering how big their Miami upgrade package is.
As I said, the only outlier is RedBull.