2024 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[avantman]

which race could be winnable, provided the Austin correction delivers ? Vegas ? McLaren won't have their "magic" rear wing, could help in beating them

Qatar, Vegas and Abu Dhabi I'm thinking

Qatar and Vegas were already very difficult with the RB19. Mclaren and Ferrari were pretty close. So maybe Abu Dhabi, although McLaren is likely to be better there as well.

mclaren was fastest car in qatar, ferrari was fastest in vegas. not just close.

[avantman]

which race could be winnable, provided the Austin correction delivers ? Vegas ? McLaren won't have their "magic" rear wing, could help in beating them

Nothing is winnable on pace and merit with 3rd fastest car at best. Seriously, what wonderland we are still living in? It's not April '24.

[Sergej]

which race could be winnable, provided the Austin correction delivers ? Vegas ? McLaren won't have their "magic" rear wing, could help in beating them

Nothing is winnable on pace and merit with 3rd fastest car at best. Seriously, what wonderland we are still living in? It's not April '24.

if this is the "mood", I hope you have already accustomed to the idea that Max will lose the title; I've not yet, sorry.

[avantman]

which race could be winnable, provided the Austin correction delivers ? Vegas ? McLaren won't have their "magic" rear wing, could help in beating them

Nothing is winnable on pace and merit with 3rd fastest car at best. Seriously, what wonderland we are still living in? It's not April '24.

if this is the "mood", I hope you have already accustomed to the idea that Max will lose the title; I've not yet, sorry.

Our "mood" doesn't affect cars performance, and your positivity won't make Mclaren car any slower. And they will bring upgrades as well. No upgrade in the world can close such massive gap on race pace and tire deg between the two cars. I've been watching this show long enough to know that. Doens't necessarily mean it's impossible for Max to win a race or two till the end of the year. Look, with slow underperfroming Piastri and underperforming (which is chronical) whole Ferrari team, it only takes for Lando to get a puncture, reliability issue or say another unlucky yellow flag in Q1, and Max might be in a position to win. He was in that position even last Sunday in Singapore. But that wasn't on car pace and merit, Red bull was distant 3rd fastest car.
So, no, mood isn't all that negative. If he did it and closed the championship in his favor in 2021 having very similar technical deficit, he can do it again this year.

[basti313]

Nothing is winnable on pace and merit with 3rd fastest car at best. Seriously, what wonderland we are still living in? It's not April '24.

if this is the "mood", I hope you have already accustomed to the idea that Max will lose the title; I've not yet, sorry.

Our "mood" doesn't affect cars performance, and your positivity won't make Mclaren car any slower. And they will bring upgrades as well. No upgrade in the world can close such massive gap on race pace and tire deg between the two cars. I've been watching this show long enough to know that. Doens't necessarily mean it's impossible for Max to win a race or two till the end of the year. Look, with slow underperfroming Piastri and underperforming (which is chronical) whole Ferrari team, it only takes for Lando to get a puncture, reliability issue or say another unlucky yellow flag in Q1, and Max might be in a position to win. He was in that position even last Sunday in Singapore. But that wasn't on car pace and merit, Red bull was distant 3rd fastest car.
So, no, mood isn't all that negative. If he did it and closed the championship in his favor in 2021 having very similar technical deficit, he can do it again this year.

Absolutely. It is not a "mood" thing. I wrote already after Hungary, that it is the WDC to loose for Norris and since then the situation mostly got worse although Norris screwed up three times.
Verstappen can not win on merit, he needs to hope on Norris and McLaren screwing up big time or having very bad luck.

[Sergej]

Nothing is winnable on pace and merit with 3rd fastest car at best. Seriously, what wonderland we are still living in? It's not April '24.

if this is the "mood", I hope you have already accustomed to the idea that Max will lose the title; I've not yet, sorry.

Our "mood" doesn't affect cars performance, and your positivity won't make Mclaren car any slower. And they will bring upgrades as well. No upgrade in the world can close such massive gap on race pace and tire deg between the two cars. I've been watching this show long enough to know that. Doens't necessarily mean it's impossible for Max to win a race or two till the end of the year. Look, with slow underperfroming Piastri and underperforming (which is chronical) whole Ferrari team, it only takes for Lando to get a puncture, reliability issue or say another unlucky yellow flag in Q1, and Max might be in a position to win. He was in that position even last Sunday in Singapore. But that wasn't on car pace and merit, Red bull was distant 3rd fastest car.
So, no, mood isn't all that negative. If he did it and closed the championship in his favor in 2021 having very similar technical deficit, he can do it again this year.

you keep talking as if RB will be constant 3rd fastest car for all remaining 6 races, which is not written anywhere

we all know that the title will go through the Austin correction to be working (which doesn't mean it has to make the car fastest everywhere, as we already discussed), that's why in my original post I stressed "provided the Austin correction delivers", if it fails the title is gone but even the monkeys know that; but if it succeeds (and we cannot know that at the moment) Max can still win the title on merit, so this is an open matter in my opinion

I don't think I have any sort of "positivity" (quite the contrary, I am generally a pessimistic person by nature), I just think that for us to say if Max can win or not the title on merit, we have to see what this Austin correction brings, it depends too much on this.

[Paa]

No upgrade in the world can close such massive gap on race pace and tire deg between the two cars. I've been watching this show long enough to know that.

So you started watching around this summer? Because you could have said that exact same words about McLaren catching Red Bull around March.
Btw, I mostly agree with you, but still there is a subtle difference between "impossible" and "very unlikely".

[avantman]

No upgrade in the world can close such massive gap on race pace and tire deg between the two cars. I've been watching this show long enough to know that.

So you started watching around this summer? Because you could have said that exact same words about McLaren catching Red Bull around March.
Btw, I mostly agree with you, but still there is a subtle difference between "impossible" and "very unlikely".

Mclaren started this year with largely last years car. (which was actually already faster than RB19 in Qatar, at least as fast in Brazil) Their real new 2024 car was introduced in Miami. It wasn't just ordinary midseason upgrade, it was effectively new car. New chassis, front suspension, big aero package. Red bull are not in a position in develop brand new chassis and suspension in a month.
I started watching around 2000. Malaysia 1999 was the first race I watched live.

[basti313]

you keep talking as if RB will be constant 3rd fastest car for all remaining 6 races, which is not written anywhere

No, that is neither what is written by anyone nor is it what is necessary for Norris to win:
If Redbull is on average second fastest car, they loose statistically both titles. Because second fastest means on average P3.

What is written is, that they can not close the gap anymore and after several different tracks now it is unfortunately clear, that the gap is there on every track to come.

It comes down to the point that Norris will not be able to Max imize his points to a substantial degree, which brings everything down to the point if Max can Max imize his points or not.
I would say a crash of any of the two is most probably already a decider.

[organic]

Norris has to gain more than 8 points per race between now and the end of the season

Despite having the fastest car since Miami, he hasn't managed that in a single GP apart from Australia where max DNF'd

[kediown]

https://x.com/ErikvHaren/status/1838578132812439726

Another important pawn is leaving Red Bull after many years. Chief strategist Will Courtenay is going to the big competitor McLaren and will become Sporting Director there. Red Bull will keep him on contract until mid-2026

[AR3-GP]

That would explain the strategy ineffectiveness since Hungary. Negotiations must have begun a while back. The effectiveness of the strategy group changes when there's someone in the group who has decided that they are no longer committed.

[Sergej]

you keep talking as if RB will be constant 3rd fastest car for all remaining 6 races, which is not written anywhere

No, that is neither what is written by anyone nor is it what is necessary for Norris to win:
If Redbull is on average second fastest car, they loose statistically both titles. Because second fastest means on average P3.

it's not that simple I think

if RB manage to have consistently the 2nd car, Max can well bring home some 2nd places which means that in that weekend Lando fails to achieve the points he needs; with 2nd car he can even be able to steal a win like he did in Imola/Montreal/Barcelona where RB surely was not the fastest car

plus, we are talking assuming that Lando will win all 6 remaining races which is far from a given (he should have won at least 10 races since Miami, he won 3)

I think we have to wait for this Austin correction before having a clear picture of what the season finale will be like

[AR3-GP]

The problem is that Norris is gaining clarity. He is actually capable of winning all of the last 6 races with his speed. With every race that passes, he sharpens his craft. It's inevitable. All of the remaining tracks are high deg and easy overtaking circuits. As long as they have their speed and tire deg, and Red Bull have neither, the odds are not good.

[basti313]

Norris has to gain more than 8 points per race between now and the end of the season

Despite having the fastest car since Miami, he hasn't managed that in a single GP apart from Australia where max DNF'd

???
Hun, Net, Ita....all with 8 points +

That is the point...clumsy execution by McLaren and Lando. But besides nearly running into a wall and missing the fastest lap, the main points in Azer race and Spore were good. At least there is a trajectory that is concerning in execution since the screwed Q in Azer.

if RB manage to have consistently the 2nd car, Max can well bring home some 2nd places which means that in that weekend Lando fails to achieve the points he needs; with 2nd car he can even be able to steal a win like he did in Imola/Montreal/Barcelona where RB surely was not the fastest car

plus, we are talking assuming that Lando will win all 6 remaining races which is far from a given (he should have won at least 10 races since Miami, he won 3)

That is what is meant with: Lando to loose it.

I think we have to wait this Austin correction before having a clear picture of what the season finale will be like

You can wait until whenever you feel comfortable. Not my business, neither of interest for me.

For me the situation is clear.