2025 f1 predictions

[Emag]

When it comes to drivers, I think Oscar is highly overrated by people and I am fairly confident we will see the third season in a row where he will lose to Lando on every possible metric and I don't actually expect it to be close again either. Lewis and Charles will be interesting. If Lewis is hungry and comfortable with the car, it won't be an easy battle for Charles. I do expect them to be the closest pair of teammates. Max will continue to do Max things in the RedBull but I do see Liami being somewhat closer. Would be a disaster if he is no improvement over Sergio. And at Mercedes, I predict an easy win for George. Kimi hasn't shown groundbreaking pace in F2 whereas George probably just had the best season of his career in 2024. He is coming in with very high confidence.

As for the teams and pecking order, I feel like that's a bit harder to predict. Ferrari had really promising in-season development (in particular towards the end) last year. In combination with a bunch of "low-hanging fruit" kind of ideas for potential improvements going into 2025, that makes them the easiest team to hype over. Ferrari seems like a safe bet at the moment, so I wouldn't be surprised if they finally manage to win again.

I would however be surprised if Mercedes was in the contention for wdc/wcc this year simply because Kimi was brought in too soon (imo) and they didn't show any signs of understanding what's wrong with their car last year. Could be a situation where they play catch up for most of the season again.

RedBull is probably the hardest team to gauge. Remains to be seen how much losing Newey and the whole Horner saga have hurt them. They improved things somewhat towards the end of 2024, but still, overall development last season was quite poor. If RedBull maintains the standards they have had these last couple of years then obviously you can't really exclude them from the battle, especially with Max driving. With how things have transpired lately though, that remains a big if.

And finally McLaren is also hard to evaluate in my opinion. People are jumping the gun when they consider them favorites for the WCC again. I am personally not convinced they can find enough laptime on their 2025 car to maintain leader pace. Development last year, with the exception of the Miami package, was uninspired and it seemed like they hit a wall with the MCL38 concept. The team seems confident though and they talked about taking risks for 2025. Also worth noting that McLaren's original expectation was for them to join the title fight in 2025. They just stumbled into a title fight in 2024 a year early when the investments hadn't set in 100%.

Even if the car is good enough, based on how last year went, McLaren is arguably the weakest team operationally at the top. If they don't show improvements in that aspect as well, it won't be easy for them to win either of the titles.

[WardenOfTheNorth]

OK, I'll have a go at this.

My thoughts:

WDC will be closely fought between Ferrari and McLaren with it eventually coming down to reliability or even a but of luck with regards to a Safety Car or Red Flag at some point giving one team the advantage. Another close fight between RBR and Mercedes for 3rd with RBR getting it due to Kimi having a few rookie season errors.

WDC: Another classic season like 2012 with several drivers in the running right to the end of the season: Max, Lando, Lewis, Charles and George all in the fight.

What would I like to happen?

Sainz takes a surprise WDC in the Williams

No seriously, I would love to see Charles finally harness all his potential in a winning car and take the WDC with Lewis finishing 2nd to give Ferrari the WCC as well.

Elsewhere Ollie scored points on several occasions and shows his worth, with him replacing Lewis in 2027 after the latter retires with his 8th WDC.

Stroll announces that he's done with F1 and off to race in Hypercars for AM, freeing up the 2nd AM seat from 2026, which Yuki takes with Honda backing after a strong 2025 which includes a dream podium at Suzuka.

[Fred]

WCC (spaced for each pack/battle):

1st: McLaren
2nd: Ferrari*

3rd: Red Bull
4th: Mercedes

5th: Alpine
6th: Aston Martin
7th: Haas
8th: Williams

9th: Toro Rosso
10th: Sauber

* Ferrari I think could swing massively. They’re switching to pull rod front suspension which is going to be incredibly risky as it may lead to a lot of issues. If it doesn’t work out, I can see them fighting Red Bull and Mercedes. If it does, then I can see them in a close battle with McLaren and potentially winning.

McLaren is also taking some big risks and has some huge updates, considering lately these risks have paid off and they’ve finally got the new infrastructure, I’m expecting them to jump up as well. Not to mention, they kept parts of a final update hidden at the end of last year which they expected lots of performance from.

Red Bull I can see their issues continuing, and while I think Lawson is an improvement over Perez with a much higher ceiling, he’s going to be one of the weaker drivers at the front. Mercedes in a similar boat, and while Antonelli might be fast I’m expecting a lot of DNFs from him.

Aston haven’t really made any progress since Stroll bought them. They’ve had 2 jumps from copying Mercedes and then poaching RBR top talent, but they’ve only gone backwards when they haven’t been using other team’s ideas. I don’t expect this to change and can see them continuing their downwards trajectory they had last year. Newey might help with this, but I don’t expect much from this year. I suspect he’ll be fully focused on 2026 and we’ll see another jump up from them then.

Alpine on the other hand made huge strides throughout 2024. Jokes aside by how terrible they are as an organisation, I can see them continuing this upward trajectory and find themselves back at the front of the midfield fighting with Aston. I can see them progressing through the season as well, whereas I see Aston falling backwards throughout the season yet again. Losing Ocon for a rookie mightn’t help them though, but Aston has Stroll which offsets those losses.

Haas will finally have a decent line up which will be able to extract the results you’d expect with their car. I don’t think the car will be as quick as Aston or Alpine, but it’ll be close enough and actually racing with 2 drivers will keep them in the battle and give them better chances of points.

Williams I think will be a bit behind in pace to Haas but not far off, which they’ve showed towards the end of last year. They also have some good upwards momentum and seem to be fixing the ship pretty well at the moment. Additionally, they now have a top driver like Sainz who will finally be able to showcase that. While they might be the weaker team in this group, Sainz is also comfortably the strongest driver and is incredibly consistent, I think he’ll be able to drag the team into the battle for points each race and take as many of the opportunities as possible which will keep Williams in this battle as well. Ultimately though, it’ll only be enough to drag them into the battle, the rest of Williams’ problems will prevent them from progressing much beyond that. I don’t think Albon will do poorly like Stroll and Doohan, but I think he’ll be exposed a little. I personally put him in a similar level to Bearman, but without the excuse of being a rookie. However, he is an unknown and that could swing things a bit. I still can’t see them beating anyone though if it does, maybe they’ll jump Haas but that’s it. It’ll be more of a boost for Albon in the WDC then Williams in the WCC.

For Sauber, it’s another write off but I don’t think it’ll be as bad as next year. For Toro Rosso it’s the same as usual as well, but I don’t see Sauber jumping ahead of them like Williams.

That said, here’s my WDC assuming Ferrari gets the pull rod suspension right:

1st: Norris
2nd: Leclerc

3rd: Hamilton
4th: Piastri

5th: Verstappen
6th: Russell

7th: Lawson
8th: Antonelli

9th: Gasly
10th: Alonso
11th: Ocon
12th: Sainz

13th: Bearman
14th: Stroll
15th: Doohan
16th: Albon

17th: Tsunoda

18th: Hulkenberg

19th: Hadjar
20th: Bortoleto

Noting, I don’t think it’ll be a full gap from Norris/Leclerc to Hamilton/Piastri, but there will be a mini gap like there was between Norris/Leclerc and their teammates last year. It’ll be clear who the top driver is, but it’ll be close enough that they could end up losing to them even up until the end.

[masking_agent]

its way too early to make predictions, as we know the season is so long

[DJ Downforce]

its way too early to make predictions, as we know the season is so long

That's part of the fun of predictions - laughing at how hilariously wrong we were

[dren]

This is Sainz's WDC.

[dren]

Predictions on which rookie crashes first? Most?

[BassVirolla]

This is Sainz's WDC.

Given that Leclerc and Hamilton will be excluding mutually from the fight, 2025 is a great chance for Sainz.

[BorisTheBlade]

So I will add my 2 cents as well, just to see in a couple of months, how terribly wrong I was

With the outlook of the 2026 rules changes, every Team wants to get a head start this year. Of course, the Title Contenders will want to see where they stand after the first races and what makes sense and what not. In a way, most teams would prefer a clear pecking order where there is no gambling at play - which ironically would be the worst possible outcome for the audience.
So let's hope, that competition will be as tight as most would expect after 2024.

Williams
IIRC they are the only ones that stated loud an clear, that they want to concentrate on 2026 as much as possible and are willing to sacrifice 2025. As such, they will want to get a good start and might be sliding down the order as the season progresses.
Nevertheless, I expect them to up the ante quite a bit in comparison to 2024. The car seems to be solid and not overweight. And the drivers are one of the strongest pairings in the whole field - especially in terms of controlled driving and bringing home some solid points, whenever the chance arises.

Sauber
Although not officially stated, anything else than building up for 2026 and sacrificing 2025 would make no sense IMHO. Part of the process should be a slight improvement compared to last season - but I do not see them making significant inroads in terms of WCC position.
Hulk will bring home the Lion-Share of the few points they will get. Bortoleto will have a good first season and might put some pressure on Hulk here and there, but will need to get more experience.

Visa RB
They are supposed to share even more components with RBR for 2025 - aren't they? As much as I like Yuki, I can see them as a strong contender for the red lantern, as I expect Laurent Mekies to be the same kind of Long-Term-Thinker as James Vowles.
Yuki will utterly destroy Isack.

Haas
They were quite the surprise for me last year. Will they continue on that level? Will they shift Focus to 2026 early or will they try to get the best possible result for 2025. I honestly don't know, but my gut feeling tells me, that they should be competing with Alpine and Williams for the spots 6-8.
Ocon should be the more consistent one although I suspect Ollie to give him some fierce competition occasionally.

Alpine
A bit from out of nowhere they started a clear upward trajectory at some point of the second half of the season - probably, because meeting the weight-limit was just one of a couple of low hanging fruits.
But honestly, I am not seeing them going anywhere. This Team should be taken over by someone with ambitions beyond just being an "also ran".
Gasly will dominate Doohan who is susceptible of being replaced mid-season.

Aston Martin
Although their 2024 season was much worse than 2023, the started relatively strong last year. I expect them to be a solid number 5 with quite some margin in both directions as well. They will shift to 2026 pretty early, as everything else would be nuts, after having won over Adrian Newey.
There is nothing to be said about Alonso vs. Stroll that hasn't already been said a dozen times.

Mercedes
Performance-wise, I expect them on about the same level as last year - 1-4 wins on tracks or conditions that suit them. They will plan to shift early, if not be quite a huge surprise they might find themselves in real contention for one of the Championships.
Russell will win every metric that counts against Antonelli. It will be a huge fall for him after all the Hype and Credits they gave Kimi in advance.

Red Bull
Through losing Newey they lost my fear for them to produce a dominant car again. They will surely cure the most significant weaknesses of their car, but I do not see them leading the pack anymore. But they have much less reason to sacrifice 2025 in-season-development than for example Ferrari and Mercedes, as has been said before.
Lawson should be a clear improvement over Perez if, and only if, he is able to process being the clear number Two behind Max. Max will be in contention as long as the car is not too far behind - and the expected Focus on 2025 for RBR should give him a fighting chance.

Ferrari
As has been said before. If the supposedly quite significant changes to the car concept do not backfire too much and if the teething issues do not persist too long, they should be in for both Championships.
Hamilton vs. Leclerc will be interesting to watch and also something to be managed tightly by Fred Vasseur. I expect Leclerc to lead in raw pace but Hamilton could more or less equal this with racing intelligence and cunningness. This could quite easily turn ugly.

McLaren
Everything else than continuing their trend would be a surprise for me. I would also expect them to be the only ones together with RBR to be planning to push development in 2025 right until the end. They have a very good chance to win both Championships this year while 2026 could be a bitter tasting reset in terms of relative performance.
Lando should be the more consistent points-earner and therefore be their shot at WDC again. Oscar still needs to improve race-pace IMHO - but his trajectory still points upwards and it is okay for him to take one step at a time.

Team ranking
McLaren
Ferrari +0,05
Red Bull +0,20
Mercedes +0,25 - much weaker pairing than RBR

Aston Martin +0,40

Williams +0,70 - drivers making the difference
Haas +0,65
Alpine +0,60 - weakest pairing in that group

Sauber +0,80 - Hulk will make the difference
VisaRB +0,80

Drivers ranking
Norris
Verstappen
Leclerc
Hamilton
Piastri
Russell
Lawson
Alonso
Antonelli
Sainz
Gasly
Ocon
Hülkenberg
Albon
Tsunoda
Bearman
Bortoleto
Stroll
Doohan
Hadjar

[SirBastianVettel]

My terrible predictions for the top 4 teams:

WCC:
1) McLaren
2) Ferrari
3) Red Bull
4) Mercedes

WDC:
1) Norris
2) Leclerc
3) Hamilton
4) Verstappen
5) Piastri
6) Russell
7) Lawson
Antonelli

I expect this to be 100% wrong at the end of the season.

[Gillian]

I have WDC Verstappen WCC Ferrari

Leclerc beats Hamilton in pace and WDC standings but Verstappen wins WDC through consistency and no intra team fight

Piastri improves but can't match Norris, Lawson is okay (Piastri first season level).

I second this eventhough doing predictions at this moment is very silly haha.

[dren]

Max 5th championship. Ferrari gets the constructors. Saiz utterly destroys Albon. Russel cries more than once. Antonelli doesn't live up to the hype.

[KimiRai]

Everyone keeps saying 2025 will be amazing 4 evenly matched teams fighting for victories etc etc so it would be funny if that isn't the case at all and McLaren has a decent advantage of a few tenths.

[dia6olo]

Assuming Ferrari haven't dropped the ball with the SF-25 and their trajectory in terms of progress under Vasseur has continued, I see Ferrari winning both championships with Leclerc winning the drivers.

My gut feeling is that Red Bull's number is up and that while they are likely to still be competitive, I have a feeling they'll be fighting for second place at best.

I'm not quite sure what I think about McLaren, my gut feeling is that they will not be as competitive as many are expecting...
Kind of the same with Mercedes, I'm not really sure because it's Mercedes but based on their more recent history, I'm expecting them to be ahead of the midfield pack but no more...

WDC
1 Leclerc
2 Max/Lando
4 Hamilton

WCC
1 Ferrari
2 Mclaren/Red Bull
4 Mercedes

[F1-analysis.com]

I run a mathematical model that predicts which driver will score more points. Here are the predictions for the (non-rookie) team mate match ups in 2025.

Lead driver
Norris, 56% of McLaren’s points
Leclerc, 59% of Ferrari’s points
Verstappen, 58% of Red Bull’s points
Alonso, 75% of Aston Martin’s points
Sainz, 77% of Williams’ points

There’s also some predictions on the expected relative points of rookie drivers.
You can see the full predictions here:
https://f1-analysis.com/2025/01/31/2025 ... edictions/