2025 Season: Pecking order discussion

[SirBastianVettel]

McLaren

Red Bull +0.1

Ferrari +0.3

Merc +0.5

I doubt the gap between McLaren and Red Bull is that small. More like 0.3 I think.

[pantherxxx]

1. Mclaren/Red Bull (Red Bull only with Verstappen)
3. Mercedes
4. Williams
5. Ferrari
6. Racing Bulls/Haas/Alpine
9. Aston
10. Sauber

My prediction is that Red Bull will eventually overtake Mclaren with mid season developments.

[Vettel165]

My opinion is that Red Bull is hiding its true pace. I am usually wrong so dont believe me. Just first intuition, because Max was happy with the car.


Red Bull/Max

Mclaren +0,2s
Mercedes +0.3s
Ferrari + 0,4s

Others

[franbatista123]

I'm personally not buying that Mclaren has 2/3 tenths on Ferrari, call it a gut feeling that things are much more close than they appear right now. Mclaren might have shown their hand a little more clearly during testing specially during long runs.

• Mclaren / Ferrari - equal, varies from track to track. Ferrari might invest more in the development for the championship

• Red Bull - Close at the beggining, faster on some tracks but will lose out during the year

• Mercedes - Similar situation to last year, faster on some tracks in certain situations

• Alpine

• Haas

• Aston Martin

• Williams

• Sauber

[Tonino]

1. Mclaren
2. Red Bull (Verstappen)
2.5 Mercedes

3. Ferrari
4. Alpine / Williams

The rest

[deadhead]

Only thing standing between Norris and a WDC is one Max Verstappen ... quite the brick wall really but maybe he can do it if the car is 0.2 faster on most tracks

[Zynerji]

Like every year, my prediction is one of hope more than anything we were (not) shown in Bahrain.

Q1 separated by .4s 1st to 20th
Q2 separated by .2s 1st to 15th
Q3 separated by .1s 1st to 10th

Then delay the 2026 rules until 2028!!

[f1isgood]

Only thing standing between Norris and a WDC is one Max Verstappen ... quite the brick wall really but maybe he can do it if the car is 0.2 faster on most tracks

2 tenths over 50 laps is 10 seconds. That should be a cakewalk at that point assuming Lando can qualify well. It's Lando's title this year.

[Tvetovnato]

Like every year, my prediction is one of hope more than anything we were (not) shown in Bahrain.

Q1 separated by .4s 1st to 20th
Q2 separated by .2s 1st to 15th
Q3 separated by .1s 1st to 10th

Then delay the 2026 rules until 2028!!

Yeah, I wish we would stay with these rules for at least another two years. I am convinced that things are extremely close between Max, McLaren and Ferrari right now, and that it will ebb and flow during the whole season. Only to have a new 2022 next year

[Andi76]

It's still hard to say, but I think it looks like this at the moment

1. McLaren
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Mercedes
5. Williams
6. Alpine
7. Aston Martin
8. RBR
9. Kick Sauber
10. Haas

[basti313]

My prediction is that Red Bull will eventually overtake Mclaren with mid season developments.

But why? If anything, McLaren needs to go all-in on in season developments. This is their one and only chance for a WDC and WCC in the next years.

[Bence]

...
Then delay the 2026 rules until 2028!!

Yup, and forget the new hybrids entirely and bring on the V10s from 28...

[Matt2725]

It's still hard to say, but I think it looks like this at the moment

1. McLaren
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Mercedes
5. Williams
6. Alpine
7. Aston Martin
8. RBR
9. Kick Sauber
10. Haas

Swap Mercedes with Ferrari and I think it's closer to the truth. Also think Alpine and Williams could be either way round.

That would be some rotten luck for Hamilton. Imagine if Russell/Antonelli get a championship capable car.

Was always going to be a gamble IMO.

[Andi76]

It's still hard to say, but I think it looks like this at the moment

1. McLaren
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Mercedes
5. Williams
6. Alpine
7. Aston Martin
8. RBR
9. Kick Sauber
10. Haas

Swap Mercedes with Ferrari and I think it's closer to the truth. Also think Alpine and Williams could be either way round.

That would be some rotten luck for Hamilton. Imagine if Russell/Antonelli get a championship capable car.

Was always going to be a gamble IMO.

I don't think so, its close, but lets not forget 2024 - cold temperatures meant fast Mercedes. Normal and warm temperatures - slow Mercedes. So it is likely that the temperatures suited Mercedes, or at least more than Ferrari.

Anyway - McLaren is probably 3-4 tenths ahead. Ferrari is behind with Mercedes but Mercedes is close too Ferrari, as is Red Bull (but only Verstappen - In general I am critical of Red Bull, the new underbody that came during the tests has already failed again). Hamilton won't win another title either way, whether Mercedes or Ferrari, in my opinion.

Between Alpine and Williams it is as close as it is between Ferrari and Mercedes. The track and the conditions will be decisive and it will vary.

[Seanspeed]

I think Mclaren straight have the potential to dominate this year. I dont think people realize they weren't far off from being able to do it last year without tons of cockups. All while their engineering team has proven they know how to take bigger leaps than anybody else over the past couple years. So it wouldn't be some wild shock if they had the confidence to take another big leap, and will have the advantage of being able to start this season with the top car instead of only developing that later on.

There's no reason this season has to be close like so many believe. That's all based on a poor understanding of how 2024 played out and thinking that will somehow play out again, even though obviously it wouldn't cuz it was a weird year. 2025 could be weird again sure, but I think the factors involved, especially given teams need to shift focus to 2026 and so cant spend too much worrying about improving their 2025 car, will limit this aspect quite a lot.