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[wiktor977]

Next year the Redbull be be nowhere with the new engines. Almost like Honda at the start of the hybrid era all over again.

Max knows this and will want out.

Ferrari and McLaren don’t have a spot. This leaves Mercedes. It’s pretty much a done deal imo as it’s a win/win situation for them both.

The truth is that Mercedes doesn't need Max, it looks like Max needs Mercedes. With a good car and engine Mercedes can win WC with current drivers, we all know that.

[Matt2725]

I bet in a months time all these journalists will be sharing that they knew the deal is on but couldn't share it because it was told to them in confidence.

Max is probably deciding based on data from the engine programme, I know I would.

He probably got data from at least 3 engine manufacturers and can make a good guess of pecking order in 2026.

I strongly doubt he's that privy to such information on a wide scale. He'll know what the RBPT engine is doing and hear the same rumours as the rest.

Beyond that no. As others have said. This is turning more into Max needs Merc, more than Merc needs Max.

[Watto]

I think there is too much smoke for this to all be nothing at the same time that far from means anything is a done deal

The question is, why Sky Italy is putting our this bomb, if there is nothing behind. They are completely and openly killing their reputation if this is really nothing.

I think there is clearly some talk happening But I've seen plenty of time (not F1) where these rumours just don't pan out for what ever reason, the Mercedes board may shut it down, whoever leaked it to sky Italy might have left out some details. Depends who their source is and what their motive for the leak is - I doubt doubt with all the other stuff that has come out they talks are there. Just probably very few show how serious it is.

[madsonit]

People seem to forget the marketing side of things. Mercedes needs Max as well, he will bring much more money from sponsor and merch sales than George is.

[avantman]

Marketing value and presitege are both very important reasons to sign a champion like Max. Every top team desires and have a world champion in their squad. These are two main reason why Ferrari signed Lewis at expense of losing well-performing Sainz. Of course not because they were thinking they are gonna win Championship with him whilst Charles would be looking at it from the side.

But with Mercedes it's not the main reason for sure, if marketing and prestige was the priority Lewis would've gotten from them what he wanted...a three years deal, brand-ambassador role for life...whatever.

Toto just like everyone at the top of Mercedes know very well they got beaten to Worlds Championship with a better car in 2021...by a better driver. Of course they do not want to see that happening to them again, even if they expect to have the best PU and even potentially overall best car in 2026. They also know they would've won multiple more Grand prix in the span of 2022-2023 when they didn't have overall fastest car on the season but were very close in particular races, if not Verstappen who was the only reason why they didn't. Mercedes drivers came short and finished 2nd only behind Max on 8 occasions. (9 if we count DSQ at COTA where Ham was 2nd on track) Similar things happened to Mclaren and Norris in 2023 and 2024, he was 2nd behind only Max at the chequered flag in 7 grand Prix, 8 in total if we count Piastri. Which is in fact the same exact number as Mercedes in 2022-2024. This simple statistics is very revealing and shows that one can never underestimate the factor of having to race against the best driver driving for rival team. It's always much better to have the best driver driving for your team. That's why Schumi had an open invitation from all best teams in the 90s...That's why Senna could effectively chose teams and no team would say him no. Max is the first driver since those two who has effectively the same luxury, despite things being very different these days in many ways.

As for Mercedes board consideration and potential disapproval of signing Max, let's not being silly, how can anyone even question after that:
“The best drivers want to be in the best cars,” Kallenius said to Sky Deutschland. “And our job is to put together the best possible package. 2026? The cards will be reshuffled, and Max would look good in silver as well…”

Mercedes approval is just necessary formality, nothing more than that.

[basti313]

Max is probably deciding based on data from the engine programme, I know I would.
He probably got data from at least 3 engine manufacturers and can make a good guess of pecking order in 2026.

I do not think they would give any real data to competition. Still, they way Niki lured Ham into Merc is surely the same way Toto will now work on Max.
There are certainly good reasons and Toto will use them to let Max know why being at a works team is the only way to be competitive next year.

The truth is that Mercedes doesn't need Max, it looks like Max needs Mercedes. With a good car and engine Mercedes can win WC with current drivers, we all know that.

I think the first sentence is true, still I do not think the second one is true. I do not think Toto thinks, that he can beat Ferrari or McLaren or RedBull with a equally good car with this lineup. He needs to make sure on every level, that he wins the championship next year. Just betting on a monster of a car is not enough and not what they did in 2014.

People seem to forget the marketing side of things. Mercedes needs Max as well, he will bring much more money from sponsor and merch sales than George is.

Good point. You have 20Mio Dutch spread around the world of which 95% purchase Max merch...Toto can go to his board and tell then that T-shirt sales alone will pay the salary.
Funny thing might be that Merc might make more money with T-shirts than with some of their electric cars

[FittingMechanics]

I bet in a months time all these journalists will be sharing that they knew the deal is on but couldn't share it because it was told to them in confidence.

Max is probably deciding based on data from the engine programme, I know I would.

He probably got data from at least 3 engine manufacturers and can make a good guess of pecking order in 2026.

I strongly doubt he's that privy to such information on a wide scale. He'll know what the RBPT engine is doing and hear the same rumours as the rest.

Beyond that no. As others have said. This is turning more into Max needs Merc, more than Merc needs Max.

Why wouldn't he be? It is as simple as saying our data shows that we are making XY horsepower at this RPM, projecting a laptime of 1:10s at circuit Z. They aren't giving him schematics of the engine.

If you want to make a big move like this, you need to bring some carrots. If I as a fan can think of a simple way to gauge engine/car capability I am sure that Max's team can do 10x better.

The whole talk about Mercedes board potentially shutting it down is just silly. Toto wouldn't be doing this if he didn't have an understanding that he has freedom to do this. It's become so public that it will surely unsettle Russell/Antonelli (depending on who was promised a secure seat) so that if it wasn't already approved, he wouldn't be doing it.

The same with the "no official offer". It is possible that Max cannot enter official contract talks with other teams BEFORE his exit clause is triggered. But they sure can have an understanding.

[avantman]

I do not think they would give any real data to competition.

IMO it's crazy to assume Max camp wouldn't get any insider information on development of PU both from RBPT and Mercedes. It doesn't have to be precise numbers of course and all sorts of detailed data, but all manufacturers have their sources for sure and spy on each other. I've heard one Dutch expert (do not remember his name) who knows Marko saying from his words few mouths ago Red bull know they are lacking 5 hp of raw power to Mercedes on ICE side. That might sound like not much, but it's still significant. Main point though, Marko would not be just inventing these numbers out of nowhere.

Still, they way Niki lured Ham into Merc...

It's crazy that this myth that was debunked by Niki himself(I can provide you with a link to his interview if you wish), is still around. Niki did nothing significant to lure Ham. Ross Brawn did all that, he held all the negotiations and without a shadow of a doubt exposed Ham to insider information on the project explaining him why he would not have a chance to win with customer Mclaren. In that regard, if Toto wanted to lure Max he would do the same. As Ham transfer was never a gamble as most us outsiders thought back in 2012, Max move (if he indeed moves for 2026 already) won't be a gamble, but wholly calculated decision, even if nobody can guarantee who will be the outright fastest.

[Matt2725]

I bet in a months time all these journalists will be sharing that they knew the deal is on but couldn't share it because it was told to them in confidence.

Max is probably deciding based on data from the engine programme, I know I would.

He probably got data from at least 3 engine manufacturers and can make a good guess of pecking order in 2026.

I strongly doubt he's that privy to such information on a wide scale. He'll know what the RBPT engine is doing and hear the same rumours as the rest.

Beyond that no. As others have said. This is turning more into Max needs Merc, more than Merc needs Max.

Why wouldn't he be? It is as simple as saying our data shows that we are making XY horsepower at this RPM, projecting a laptime of 1:10s at circuit Z. They aren't giving him schematics of the engine.

If you want to make a big move like this, you need to bring some carrots. If I as a fan can think of a simple way to gauge engine/car capability I am sure that Max's team can do 10x better.

The whole talk about Mercedes board potentially shutting it down is just silly. Toto wouldn't be doing this if he didn't have an understanding that he has freedom to do this. It's become so public that it will surely unsettle Russell/Antonelli (depending on who was promised a secure seat) so that if it wasn't already approved, he wouldn't be doing it.

The same with the "no official offer". It is possible that Max cannot enter official contract talks with other teams BEFORE his exit clause is triggered. But they sure can have an understanding.

Because you don't give that sort of information to a driver of a rival team. Even if it's bitty information like that, you give them an idea of where you are in terms of development.

Either way, this is being hyped up by too many people who want it to happen rather than have any real evidence to suggest it's going to.

Wolff already said George was being extended for next year and the Verstappen camp has said no offer has been more and nothing has changed since last week. Yet because Sky Italy made something up, that's impossible.

We'll certainly see but I think a lot of people are looking for something that isn't there. I could be wrong but I don't think I am.

[FittingMechanics]

I do not think they would give any real data to competition.

IMO it's crazy to assume Max camp wouldn't get any insider information on development of PU both from RBPT and Mercedes. It doesn't have to be precise numbers of course and all sorts of detailed data, but all manufacturers have their sources for sure and spy on each other. I've heard one Dutch expert (do not remember his name) who knows Marko saying from his words few mouths ago Red bull know they are lacking 5 hp of raw power to Mercedes on ICE side. That might sound like not much, but it's still significant. Main point though, Marko would not be just inventing these numbers out of nowhere.

Still, they way Niki lured Ham into Merc...

It's crazy that this myth that was debunked by Niki himself(I can provide you with a link to his interview if you wish), is still around. Niki did nothing significant to lure Ham. Ross Brawn did all that, he held all the negotiations and without a shadow of a doubt exposed Ham to insider information on the project explaining him why he would not have a chance to win with customer Mclaren. In that regard, if Toto wanted to lure Max he would do the same. As Ham transfer was never a gamble as most us outsiders thought back in 2012, Max move (if he indeed moves for 2026 already) won't be a gamble, but wholly calculated decision, even if nobody can guarantee who will be the outright fastest.

Well said. These guys are so competitive they wouldn't make a move just on gut feeling. Move by HAM is easily explained by seeing the data and understanding that the amount of investment they were making will surely bring them to the top. Max making a move here would be in a similar way.

But I think the advantage works team has today is much smaller and that it is quite possible that Mercedes works team does not have any real "insider" advantage to McLaren customer team.

For us as fans it may mean that Max has a competitive car next year and can challenge the McLarens while Red Bull fights for single digit points (would be the case this year without Max to be honest)

[-wkst-]

But I think the advantage works team has today is much smaller and that it is quite possible that Mercedes works team does not have any real "insider" advantage to McLaren customer team.

PU's are frozen for years currently with stable aero regulations.

Both things change now at the same time, which is a huge challenge, as a certain Adrian Newey stated a few times now.

Vasseur told once that it's a huge advantage to always know what the PU side plans, to develop the chassis in harmony.

Mercedes is a fair supplier, but they won't give informations before they have to, to buy themselves a bit of a time advantage.

I would be astonished if McLaren can compete with Mercedes next year. Therefore it's McLaren's year to win both titles, best chance for years.

[djones]

Next year the Redbull be be nowhere with the new engines. Almost like Honda at the start of the hybrid era all over again.

Max knows this and will want out.

Ferrari and McLaren don’t have a spot. This leaves Mercedes. It’s pretty much a done deal imo as it’s a win/win situation for them both.

The truth is that Mercedes doesn't need Max, it looks like Max needs Mercedes. With a good car and engine Mercedes can win WC with current drivers, we all know that.

It's a fair point.

But to create the highest chance of winning, we can probably all agree that it would be Max in the car, not George.

[avantman]

We'll certainly see but I think a lot of people are looking for something that isn't there. I could be wrong but I don't think I am.

From what I see, you see what you want to see, just like others. You seem like a Russell fan, hence why you want him to stay, which means you want Verstappen not to sign with Mercedes. The fact than Mercedes board and Toto wanted Max early on in 2024 is undeniable, they were openly talking about signing him for 2026 season to drive their car in new era. They wanted him openly before Brazil last year, before we saw that whole season pan out as it did. One of the most brightest examples ever a driver making the biggest difference to win a championship in an inferior car. It would be more than safe to assume they want him now even more than ever, despite Russell having his best season to date. It looks so from the outside at least for us outsiders. I frankly doubt he suddenly found extra pace from last year or a year before where he would not rarely get outperformed by Hamilton particularly in races. Russell race pace is nothing to write home about, for sure they at Mercedes know that. The guy got outscored by old Lewis over three years together. Forget DSQ in Spa last year, because Ham had DSQ from 2nd at COTA before as well. The sheer fact it was close and Russell was not decisively and by far the better driver on Sunday is quite telling. Because everyone could see Hamilton in turn was a poor performing in these new gen Mercedes car in 2022-2024. He was an under-performer but still was much better than Russell who was very experienced driver already, on so many occasions.

I do not know if you are more of a Russell or a Mercedes fan, but If I was a Mercedes fan, I would not be happy to find out Max ultimately decided against the move, because that would mean one and only thing - Mercedes aren't gonna be as competitive in 2026 as many believe. And if he signed that would be an indicator they are gonna be indeed competitive (not saying the outright best, but with Max chances gonna be for sure higher), because there is no way a driver like Max being in a position he is in, having a long term contract and position in a top team, would break a contract and go for a gamble. There is no way for him to ever do that. I repeat it again, fools are those people who believed Lewis was gambling when he signed with Mercedes in 2012. Admittedly I was one of them back then. Just like Vettel who decided early on in 2014 to find a way out of his contract and sign with Ferrari....it wasn't a gamble, he had the data on PU side very early on. He was at Montezemolo house at Christmas even before the start of winter testing.
We outsiders do know nothing, drivers and their camps are in completely different position.

[FittingMechanics]

PU's are frozen for years currently with stable aero regulations.

Both things change now at the same time, which is a huge challenge, as a certain Adrian Newey stated a few times now.

Vasseur told once that it's a huge advantage to always know what the PU side plans, to develop the chassis in harmony.

Mercedes is a fair supplier, but they won't give informations before they have to, to buy themselves a bit of a time advantage.

I would be astonished if McLaren can compete with Mercedes next year. Therefore it's McLaren's year to win both titles, best chance for years.

I'm not going to go look for the articles, but I remember that McLaren and Mercedes signed some kind of agreement increasing McLaren cooperation on the engine front, I know it was seen as McLaren gaining access to early data kind of like works team does.

I would not be astonished if McLaren beats Mercedes next year, they seem to understand their car better than anyone on the grid, their updates work, their performance trajectory is unparalleled (maybe Williams lately is showing similar pace of improvement), they have some aspects of the car that seem unknown to other teams (tire temperature control mastery), perfect reliability and great pitstops. Next year they get top Red Bull strategy guy.

Next year is a reset, but some things do carry over and McLaren will have the same engine as Mercedes.

I would be surprised if they lose against Mercedes next year, but if Mercedes gets Verstappen, that may really happen. He can squeeze out more performance / points out of a car than anyone else.

[Mosin123]

We'll certainly see but I think a lot of people are looking for something that isn't there. I could be wrong but I don't think I am.

From what I see, you see what you want to see, just like others. You seem like a Russell fan, hence why you want him to stay, which means you want Verstappen not to sign with Mercedes. The fact than Mercedes board and Toto wanted Max early on in 2024 is undeniable, they were openly talking about signing him for 2026 season to drive their car in new era. They wanted him openly before Brazil last year, before we saw that whole season pan out as it did. One of the most brightest examples ever a driver making the biggest difference to win a championship in an inferior car. It would be more than safe to assume they want him now even more than ever, despite Russell having his best season to date. It looks so from the outside at least for us outsiders. I frankly doubt he suddenly found extra pace from last year or a year before where he would not rarely get outperformed by Hamilton particularly in races. Russell race pace is nothing to write home about, for sure they at Mercedes know that. The guy got outscored by old Lewis over three years together. Forget DSQ in Spa last year, because Ham had DSQ from 2nd at COTA before as well. The sheer fact it was close and Russell was not decisively and by far the better driver on Sunday is quite telling. Because everyone could see Hamilton in turn was a poor performing in these new gen Mercedes car in 2022-2024. He was an under-performer but still was much better than Russell who was very experienced driver already, on so many occasions.

I do not know if you are more of a Russell or a Mercedes fan, but If I was a Mercedes fan, I would not be happy to find out Max ultimately decided against the move, because that would mean one and only thing - Mercedes aren't gonna be as competitive in 2026 as many believe. And if he signed that would be an indicator they are gonna be indeed competitive (not saying the outright best, but with Max chances gonna be for sure higher), because there is no way a driver like Max being in a position he is in, having a long term contract and position in a top team, would break a contract and go for a gamble. There is no way for him to ever do that. I repeat it again, fools are those people who believed Lewis was gambling when he signed with Mercedes in 2012. Admittedly I was one of them back then. Just like Vettel who decided early on in 2014 to find a way out of his contract and sign with Ferrari....it wasn't a gamble, he had the data on PU side very early on. He was at Montezemolo house at Christmas even before the start of winter testing.
We outsiders do know nothing, drivers and their camps are in completely different position.

I dont want Max to sign for Merc, GR is more than good enough to win a championship if he had a car good enough too. Seeing Max at Merc would actively put me off. Leave him at Redbull where he belongs with Horner and Marko.