2025 McLaren F1 Team

[Badger]

Yea but having a points advantage gives the boys a chance to give Verstappen a tour around the first few rows of the grandstand like he didn’t to Hamilton back in ‘21

It doesn’t. The “mutually assured destruction” tactic only works in a straight showdown between two drivers. If there’s a third contender it’s a bad gamble that risks putting you out of contention. Lando and Oscar are each others main competitors here looking at the table. Max is a long shot so adopting a “stop him at all costs” mentality is bad game theory. The upside is small, the downside is you hand the trophy to your teammate.

[Darth-Piekus]

If Red Bull is back on top even in Singapore they must prioritize Piastri for the title. It might be unfair to Lando but someone has to be sacrificed for at least one Mclaren driver to get the title.

[Badger]

If Red Bull is back on top even in Singapore they must prioritize Piastri for the title. It might be unfair to Lando but someone has to be sacrificed for at least one Mclaren driver to get the title.

It’s ridiculous to prioritise one driver over another when they are top 2 in the WDC and within touching distance. Zak has also made it perfectly clear they aren’t going to intervene so don’t get your hopes up.

[CjC]

Yea but having a points advantage gives the boys a chance to give Verstappen a tour around the first few rows of the grandstand like he didn’t to Hamilton back in ‘21

You'll have to excuse me for my rusty english but what does that mean? Is it positive or negative?

Basically one or both our the Mclaren drivers could treat Verstappen like he treated Hamilton back in 2021. Brazil 2021 to be more precise

[CjC]

Yea but having a points advantage gives the boys a chance to give Verstappen a tour around the first few rows of the grandstand like he didn’t to Hamilton back in ‘21

It doesn’t. The “mutually assured destruction” tactic only works in a straight showdown between two drivers. If there’s a third contender it’s a bad gamble that risks putting you out of contention. Lando and Oscar are each others main competitors here looking at the table. Max is a long shot so adopting a “stop him at all costs” mentality is bad game theory. The upside is small, the downside is you hand the trophy to your teammate.

We don’t know how the table will look in 5 races time though do we

[mwillems]

If Red Bull is back on top even in Singapore they must prioritize Piastri for the title. It might be unfair to Lando but someone has to be sacrificed for at least one Mclaren driver to get the title.

They'd be mad to do that now. Lando would likely never accept it and teamwork would be out of the window. Lando would then likely leave.

Like it or not, theyll continue to until one is mathematically out of it.

[Badger]

Yea but having a points advantage gives the boys a chance to give Verstappen a tour around the first few rows of the grandstand like he didn’t to Hamilton back in ‘21

It doesn’t. The “mutually assured destruction” tactic only works in a straight showdown between two drivers. If there’s a third contender it’s a bad gamble that risks putting you out of contention. Lando and Oscar are each others main competitors here looking at the table. Max is a long shot so adopting a “stop him at all costs” mentality is bad game theory. The upside is small, the downside is you hand the trophy to your teammate.

We don’t know how the table will look in 5 races time though do we

No we don’t. But the chances that Verstappen ends up in a showdown with one McLaren driver but not the other seems extremely unlikely given the starting point. Oscar collapsing is a pre-requisite for Max to even have a chance, and guess what, that would put Lando right in the mix too given he is much closer. If Oscar just delivers solid results Max isn’t going to be a threat and this conversation doesn’t matter.

[venkyhere]

any conversations about a 3-way title fight, despite the noise in the media, is irrelevant unless Verstappen wins both Singapore and Austin. Even then, it's a long shot. Media wants 'content', even if it's something that has 0.01% probability to occur.

[f1isgood]

It doesn’t. The “mutually assured destruction” tactic only works in a straight showdown between two drivers. If there’s a third contender it’s a bad gamble that risks putting you out of contention. Lando and Oscar are each others main competitors here looking at the table. Max is a long shot so adopting a “stop him at all costs” mentality is bad game theory. The upside is small, the downside is you hand the trophy to your teammate.

We don’t know how the table will look in 5 races time though do we

No we don’t. But the chances that Verstappen ends up in a showdown with one McLaren driver but not the other seems extremely unlikely given the starting point. Oscar collapsing is a pre-requisite for Max to even have a chance, and guess what, that would put Lando right in the mix too given he is much closer. If Oscar just delivers solid results Max isn’t going to be a threat and this conversation doesn’t matter.

Yeah people seem to get lost in mathematical possibilities. Oscar needs to drop the ball to the extent we have never seen before for Max to have a chance all while assuming Max takes maximum points available like guys come on.

[chrisc90]

We don’t know how the table will look in 5 races time though do we

No we don’t. But the chances that Verstappen ends up in a showdown with one McLaren driver but not the other seems extremely unlikely given the starting point. Oscar collapsing is a pre-requisite for Max to even have a chance, and guess what, that would put Lando right in the mix too given he is much closer. If Oscar just delivers solid results Max isn’t going to be a threat and this conversation doesn’t matter.

Yeah people seem to get lost in mathematical possibilities. Oscar needs to drop the ball to the extent we have never seen before for Max to have a chance all while assuming Max takes maximum points available like guys come on.

Happened in Baku though didn’t it. Oscar dropped the ball. Zero points. While Lando flustered and ended up with minimal points vs Max who took home full points.

[SiLo]

I don't think McLaren will be worried about Max at all UNLESS he wins Singapore quite comfortably. They have a very comfortable buffer at the moment.

[f1isgood]

No we don’t. But the chances that Verstappen ends up in a showdown with one McLaren driver but not the other seems extremely unlikely given the starting point. Oscar collapsing is a pre-requisite for Max to even have a chance, and guess what, that would put Lando right in the mix too given he is much closer. If Oscar just delivers solid results Max isn’t going to be a threat and this conversation doesn’t matter.

Yeah people seem to get lost in mathematical possibilities. Oscar needs to drop the ball to the extent we have never seen before for Max to have a chance all while assuming Max takes maximum points available like guys come on.

Happened in Baku though didn’t it. Oscar dropped the ball. Zero points. While Lando flustered and ended up with minimal points vs Max who took home full points.

It's a low probability event. When was the last time a top team driver driving the best car crashed out **multiple times** while leading the championship by 50+ points. Just doesn't happen. Need a bottle of the proportions that has never happened. So....

[SilviuAgo]

https://f1i.com/news/549518-mclaren-see ... venue.html
Something that most of the McLaren fans already concluded: Singapore should be (way) better than Baku, but in Las Vegas we might see another comfortable (?) win for Red Bull.

And off topic but McLaren related, cause also 2 days ago was his birthday: on this day some long time ago on September 30, 2001, Mika Hakkinen obtained his 20th and last F1 win with McLaren.

Happy Birthday to our Flying Finn

[rbirules]

Yeah people seem to get lost in mathematical possibilities. Oscar needs to drop the ball to the extent we have never seen before for Max to have a chance all while assuming Max takes maximum points available like guys come on.

Happened in Baku though didn’t it. Oscar dropped the ball. Zero points. While Lando flustered and ended up with minimal points vs Max who took home full points.

It's a low probability event. When was the last time a top team driver driving the best car crashed out **multiple times** while leading the championship by 50+ points. Just doesn't happen. Need a bottle of the proportions that has never happened. So....

The lead wasn't quite 50 points, but Charles had a 46 point lead early in 2022 (after three races), and it was erased before the summer break (Spain PU DNF, Baku PU DNF, Canada grid penalty due to PU DNF, crash in France, strategy fiascos in Monaco and Silverstone) in part due to three DNFs. Actually it was erased in three races (after Spain Max was leading the WDC) with only one DNF. In a span of 9 races (Imola to France) in 2022 Max went from 46 points behind to 63 points in the lead, a swing of 107 points, and that's with Max getting damage in Silverstone and Charles winning in Austria.

Max just gained 35 points on Oscar in two weeks, but he doesn't need to maintain anything close to that pace. He's 69 points back with 7 race weekends to go. 10 points per weekend (with three sprints). A 1-3 finish each race for Max and Oscar, respectively, does it (Oscar can even get 2nd in the sprints). It doesn't require Oscar having multiple DNFs or dropping the ball, it doesn't even require one DNF at this point. Oscar can finish on the podium every race and still lose this WDC. Is that likely? No, Max would have to win out. Max/Red Bull's bogey track is this weekend. If Max wins in Singapore then this remote possibility starts to gain (even more) momentum, and that's with McLaren's bogey track (Vegas) still to come.

This happening almost entirely comes down to the upgraded RB21 being the best car (or a very close 2nd to MCL39) on all the remaining tracks.

When Max had the best car from mid-2022 through China 2024 he won 32 of 38 races (84.2% winning %, finishing second to his teammate in three of those, a mechanical DNF in Australia, and the other two non-2nd place finishes were Singapore). If Max and his car are on that level he's got a 30.0% chance of winning 7 races in a row. If you account for the fact that in this scenario his team wouldn't let him finish 2nd to Yuki (and Yuki hasn't been in front of him ever, like Checo occasionally was) then the beating all other cars % rises to 92.2%, and the chances of winning 7 races in a row becomes 56.2%.

Maybe you think it will be like the start of 2024 where Red Bull is dominant on some tracks and neck and neck with McLaren on others. Through the first 10 races (11th race was Austria where Max and Lando collided battling for the lead) Max won 7, and had a mechanical DNF from pole in Australia. If his car allows him to win 70% of the time the odds of winning 7 in a row is 8.2%, if his car allows him to win (on average) 80% of the time the odds of winning 7 in a row is 21%.

It's a low probability (or even a non-existent probability) event if the RB21 didn't take a (big) step forward on all tracks. If it did take a step forward then history shows us that Max has a "puncher's chance" at running the table and getting back into this WDC battle. So what are the odds the RB21 is now on par with the MCL39? That's the only question that matters, and we'll get a much better idea about the answer this weekend. There's a much better chance this entire conversation is rendered moot by Sunday.

[SilviuAgo]

Happened in Baku though didn’t it. Oscar dropped the ball. Zero points. While Lando flustered and ended up with minimal points vs Max who took home full points.

It's a low probability event. When was the last time a top team driver driving the best car crashed out **multiple times** while leading the championship by 50+ points. Just doesn't happen. Need a bottle of the proportions that has never happened. So....

The lead wasn't quite 50 points, but Charles had a 46 point lead early in 2022 (after three races), and it was erased before the summer break (Spain PU DNF, Baku PU DNF, Canada grid penalty due to PU DNF, crash in France, strategy fiascos in Monaco and Silverstone) in part due to three DNFs. Actually it was erased in three races (after Spain Max was leading the WDC) with only one DNF. In a span of 9 races (Imola to France) in 2022 Max went from 46 points behind to 63 points in the lead, a swing of 107 points, and that's with Max getting damage in Silverstone and Charles winning in Austria.

Max just gained 35 points on Oscar in two weeks, but he doesn't need to maintain anything close to that pace. He's 69 points back with 7 race weekends to go. 10 points per weekend (with three sprints). A 1-3 finish each race for Max and Oscar, respectively, does it (Oscar can even get 2nd in the sprints). It doesn't require Oscar having multiple DNFs or dropping the ball, it doesn't even require one DNF at this point. Oscar can finish on the podium every race and still lose this WDC. Is that likely? No, Max would have to win out. Max/Red Bull's bogey track is this weekend. If Max wins in Singapore then this remote possibility starts to gain (even more) momentum, and that's with McLaren's bogey track (Vegas) still to come.

This happening almost entirely comes down to the upgraded RB21 being the best car (or a very close 2nd to MCL39) on all the remaining tracks.

When Max had the best car from mid-2022 through China 2024 he won 32 of 38 races (84.2% winning %, finishing second to his teammate in three of those, a mechanical DNF in Australia, and the other two non-2nd place finishes were Singapore). If Max and his car are on that level he's got a 30.0% chance of winning 7 races in a row. If you account for the fact that in this scenario his team wouldn't let him finish 2nd to Yuki (and Yuki hasn't been in front of him ever, like Checo occasionally was) then the beating all other cars % rises to 92.2%, and the chances of winning 7 races in a row becomes 56.2%.

Maybe you think it will be like the start of 2024 where Red Bull is dominant on some tracks and neck and neck with McLaren on others. Through the first 10 races (11th race was Austria where Max and Lando collided battling for the lead) Max won 7, and had a mechanical DNF from pole in Australia. If his car allows him to win 70% of the time the odds of winning 7 in a row is 8.2%, if his car allows him to win (on average) 80% of the time the odds of winning 7 in a row is 21%.

It's a low probability (or even a non-existent probability) event if the RB21 didn't take a (big) step forward on all tracks. If it did take a step forward then history shows us that Max has a "puncher's chance" at running the table and getting back into this WDC battle. So what are the odds the RB21 is now on par with the MCL39? That's the only question that matters, and we'll get a much better idea about the answer this weekend. There's a much better chance this entire conversation is rendered moot by Sunday.

Regarding this topic, if Max can beat McLaren duo to tile, sow this on media, sorry if was already posted:



Still hard to believe this will happen. I really hope not to see another Interlagos 2007.