2025 United States Grand Prix - COTA, Oct 17 - 19

[Vettel165]

I think Mclaren is starting to put all resources into one basket. And thats into Norris, even though he is behind in the points, Could it be Max is just racing Lando from now on? The gap is 41 points between two drivers, which is not a unreachable gap, but Max has to win it nearly all. Or Mclaren having problems, imagine a 2007 scenario. I am praying for one, of course I know there is very little chance of this outcome, because everything has to be perfect. But lets just enjoy the last races.

I don't think people realize how unlikely is for Max to win the WDC.
There was a graph during FP showing he gained like 34 points on Piastri over the last 4 races. The last few races were pretty much dream scenario for Max, finishing consistently ahead of McLArens, while Oscar was kind of weakish. And even with all of these... 34 points / 4 races is just 8.5 points gain per race so still not enough.
He would need to close the gap at an even faster rate during the remaining races and that is assuming he will always finish ahead of the McLarens from now on, which is unlikely.
Just 1 win from Piastri with Max in 2nd place would mean he is now 70 points away with 5 races to go so basically game over.

Honestly, the only chance Max has if the McLarens start crashing and preferably with each other.
There is no realistic chance until there is a double DNF from the McLarens, but that is not something Max can count on. Even if that happens, it is outside of his control so basically he is relying on pure luck at this point.

Indeed and maybe sometimes in life you get lucky...

[pantherxxx]

I think Mclaren is starting to put all resources into one basket. And thats into Norris, even though he is behind in the points, Could it be Max is just racing Lando from now on? The gap is 41 points between two drivers, which is not a unreachable gap, but Max has to win it nearly all. Or Mclaren having problems, imagine a 2007 scenario. I am praying for one, of course I know there is very little chance of this outcome, because everything has to be perfect. But lets just enjoy the last races.

I don't think people realize how unlikely is for Max to win the WDC.
There was a graph during FP showing he gained like 34 points on Piastri over the last 4 races. The last few races were pretty much dream scenario for Max, finishing consistently ahead of McLArens, while Oscar was kind of weakish. And even with all of these... 34 points / 4 races is just 8.5 points gain per race so still not enough.
He would need to close the gap at an even faster rate during the remaining races and that is assuming he will always finish ahead of the McLarens from now on, which is unlikely.
Just 1 win from Piastri with Max in 2nd place would mean he is now 70 points away with 5 races to go so basically game over.

Honestly, the only chance Max has if the McLarens start crashing and preferably with each other.
There is no realistic chance until there is a double DNF from the McLarens, but that is not something Max can count on. Even if that happens, it is outside of his control so basically he is relying on pure luck at this point.

Norris already had 2 DNF this year, and Piastri 1 DNF. Why it is so unlikely that it happens again?

[Sieper]

Piastri was in the wall in Baku and Max still didn’t gain enough. That says it all. Lets talk about Cota, a great track.

[Paa]

Norris already had 2 DNF this year, and Piastri 1 DNF. Why it is so unlikely that it happens again?

My point is that Verstappen’s WDC is unlikely.
Sure, McLaren could suffer a DNF, but even that wouldn’t automatically grant the title to Max. It would merely be a prerequisite for us to start discussing the possibility. And even then, it would still be far from guaranteed — more of a long shot than anything else.

[AR3-GP]

Here is the laptime improvement from 2024 to 2025 in the sprint qualifying:

Mclaren: -0.869
Red Bull: -0.690
Ferrari: -0.024
Mercedes: +0.043

Track temp in 2024: 34C
Track temp in 2025: 41C

[FW17]

After what happened in qualifying, the FIA should tweek the pit lane rule to include that cars cannot stop in the fast lane and drive less than 1/2 the pitlane speed.

[SB15]

Here is the laptime improvement from 2024 to 2025 in the sprint qualifying:

Mclaren: -0.869
Red Bull: -0.690
Ferrari: -0.024
Mercedes: +0.043

Track temp in 2024: 34C
Track temp in 2025: 41C

Mercedes biggest loss was because of mostly setup. S1 was really unstable for them.

[Sieper]

Which they can now correct for the real qualy.

[Farnborough]

After what happened in qualifying, the FIA should tweek the pit lane rule to include that cars cannot stop in the fast lane and drive less than 1/2 the pitlane speed.

I generally hate more layers of rules, that accumulative "drag" making it frustrating when spectating.

However, in this case, making it a "no stop" in fast pitlane UNLESS the exit light is red, would seem to be realistic.

Still, judgement by the team as to how late they want to risk final release (to get "quickest" track surfacce) is entirely part of their run plan etc ... they do fully need to take this on board in their actions, current rules or changed, they have to accept the consequences.

[FW17]

Still, judgement by the team as to how late they want to risk final release (to get "quickest" track surfacce) is entirely part of their run plan etc ... they do fully need to take this on board in their actions, current rules or changed, they have to accept the consequences.

Teams cannot do anything, Currently 1 guy can wait at the pit exit for the entire session and wait for the wind to calm down or a cloud to cover the track and have no consequence.

[Farnborough]

Still, judgement by the team as to how late they want to risk final release (to get "quickest" track surfacce) is entirely part of their run plan etc ... they do fully need to take this on board in their actions, current rules or changed, they have to accept the consequences.

Teams cannot do anything, Currently 1 guy can wait at the pit exit for the entire session and wait for the wind to calm down or a cloud to cover the track and have no consequence.

Those arriving behind a stationery competitor can literally just go around them ! Theydon want to as they want the latest pit leave they can get. That's their problem

Trying to maximise that "late" aspect makes them vulnerable. They have to balance track potential with missing out completely as someone did here. There's jeopardy in most decisions, they have more running information than all of us, I'd not make excuses for them.

[f1isgood]

I think Mclaren is starting to put all resources into one basket. And thats into Norris, even though he is behind in the points, Could it be Max is just racing Lando from now on? The gap is 41 points between two drivers, which is not a unreachable gap, but Max has to win it nearly all. Or Mclaren having problems, imagine a 2007 scenario. I am praying for one, of course I know there is very little chance of this outcome, because everything has to be perfect. But lets just enjoy the last races.

I don't think people realize how unlikely is for Max to win the WDC.
There was a graph during FP showing he gained like 34 points on Piastri over the last 4 races. The last few races were pretty much dream scenario for Max, finishing consistently ahead of McLArens, while Oscar was kind of weakish. And even with all of these... 34 points / 4 races is just 8.5 points gain per race so still not enough.
He would need to close the gap at an even faster rate during the remaining races and that is assuming he will always finish ahead of the McLarens from now on, which is unlikely.
Just 1 win from Piastri with Max in 2nd place would mean he is now 70 points away with 5 races to go so basically game over.

Honestly, the only chance Max has if the McLarens start crashing and preferably with each other.
There is no realistic chance until there is a double DNF from the McLarens, but that is not something Max can count on. Even if that happens, it is outside of his control so basically he is relying on pure luck at this point.

WDC needs Max to keep getting P1 (hard enough on its own when the car margins are this slim) and needs Piastri/Norris to drop behind quite a bit. Also, Piastri was almost 4 tenths down yesterday on Max and got an easy P3 lol. McLaren's advantage to the rest of the grid on normal tracks is still very very large. Only Max in Red Bull can come close.

Need McLaren to have more bogey tracks going forward but there really aren't many. McLaren should be fighting for wins at Brazil, Mexico (Red Bull will be weak here likely given the downforce imbalances), Qatar, Abu Dhabi. They might have a bogey track at Vegas if Russell and Kimi can sneak in between Max and the Papayas. But the way in which Mercedes car behaves, it might be easily the best around Vegas - so you can chalk that off as not the greatest track for Max to do have a point gain weekend.

All of this is assuming Max actually gets maximum points gain this weekend lol.

I think WDC is almost impossible. Max is making it hard to not believe but from a purely objective point of view it is very hard to see why he would even have a chance as way too many stars have to align.

[Farnborough]

It'll not have escaped his notice (and those around him) being the erudite chap that is Oscar, that his largest immediate risk is a DNF, with either or both the other two scoring high, as this will put him right back in the chasing pack.

Interesting to the ultimate competition, is that each of these three have quite different application of skills and attributes to deploy.

Thats quite a big part of what makes the WDC good to watch. Very interesting to see this all play out under end of season pressure.

[Badger]

It'll not have escaped his notice (and those around him) being the erudite chap that is Oscar, that his largest immediate risk is a DNF, with either or both the other two scoring high, as this will put him right back in the chasing pack.

Interesting to the ultimate competition, is that each of these three have quite different application of skills and attributes to deploy.

Thats quite a big part of what makes the WDC good to watch. Very interesting to see this all play out under end of season pressure.

Likewise for Lando tangling with Max is risky, if they DNF Oscar is basically home free. Lando is close enough to Oscar that he doesn’t need to take huge risks to close the gap, he just needs to keep finishing ahead of him consistently. Max on the other hand knows he needs to win every time, so he’s going to be radioactive on track, hence if I am Lando I’m only making the move if it’s 100%.

[r85]

It'll not have escaped his notice (and those around him) being the erudite chap that is Oscar, that his largest immediate risk is a DNF, with either or both the other two scoring high, as this will put him right back in the chasing pack.

Interesting to the ultimate competition, is that each of these three have quite different application of skills and attributes to deploy.

Thats quite a big part of what makes the WDC good to watch. Very interesting to see this all play out under end of season pressure.

Likewise for Lando tangling with Max is risky, if they DNF Oscar is basically home free. Lando is close enough to Oscar that he doesn’t need to take huge risks to close the gap, he just needs to keep finishing ahead of him consistently. Max on the other hand knows he needs to win every time, so he’s going to be radioactive on track, hence if I am Lando I’m only making the move if it’s 100%.

Yep, I think we'll see the same Max from late 2021 and 2024 knowing that he has an outside shot at winning the title. If he wins the Grand Prix, I don't see why he can't win everywhere else.