Farnborough wrote: ↑20 Oct 2025, 13:52
basti313 wrote: ↑20 Oct 2025, 13:39
I think the next two races need a very exceptional outcome, otherwise this is all just wet dreams about Max having a chance.
 
The general view from Monza result, into each successive race was to ask if that was an outlier we've just seen ? It's now stacked another high score on top of that pile. 
No illusion here, but currently its definitely been running significantly toward Max, another and they'll really be having to think hard over at McL.
 
I think Monza and Baku were outliers, as they had no fast corners and no tire wear. So there was no mojo on McL side. Both Spore and Austin McLaren had the faster car and had "exceptional outcome" because of bad driving and bad luck.
The next races will be different, Mexico is maximum downforce config like in Monaco. We will see Ferrari and McLaren on top like last year. In Brazil McLaren will wipe the floor with the rest of the field in the dry.
Badger wrote: ↑20 Oct 2025, 14:10
basti313 wrote: ↑20 Oct 2025, 13:39
I think the next two races need a very exceptional outcome, otherwise this is all just wet dreams about Max having a chance.
 
If I genuinely believed RB had the fastest car for the remaining races I’d have it higher than that. 15% for me represents the chance that Verstappen wins where he is fast and that McLaren underperforms where they are fast. Basically that the form from the last 4 races continues.
 
Yep. This is what I meant with "exceptional outcome". I bet they will do some rain dance at RedBull before each weekend for this.
organic wrote: ↑20 Oct 2025, 15:39
What sort of upgrade can they even bring with such small lead time? When they brought the current front wing they talked about how they pushed up to the limit to even get that one done, and said there wouldn't be further upgrades.
Maybe something small like a brake duct? They have been iterating rapidly on the front wing so maybe another one of those
 
Maybe just track specific. They will need to bring the front wing upgrade to the high downforce configuration.