2025 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[Rodak]

In 2022 Max took quickly the lead thanks to Ferrari self-destroying with engine failures and clown strategies. I don't see this happening with McLaren. Plus of course in 2022 there was an entire season to be run, the problem now is that Max basically need to win always, one missed win and he's practically out.

It's definitely a difficult task, but in the obverse a single DNF by Piastri means game on.

[Badger]

In 2022 Max took quickly the lead thanks to Ferrari self-destroying with engine failures and clown strategies. I don't see this happening with McLaren. Plus of course in 2022 there was an entire season to be run, the problem now is that Max basically need to win always, one missed win and he's practically out.

Depends. If Verstappen and McLaren are clear of the field from here on then yes it will require perfection or luck with DNFs. On the other hand, if Merc and Ferrari can outqualify the McLaren drivers at a few circuits, suddenly the job gets a whole lot easier. Mexico and Vegas will be very interesting, big upset chances in quali. Brazil, Qatar, and AD slightly less so

[AR3-GP]

In 2022 Max took quickly the lead thanks to Ferrari self-destroying with engine failures and clown strategies. I don't see this happening with McLaren. Plus of course in 2022 there was an entire season to be run, the problem now is that Max basically need to win always, one missed win and he's practically out.

It's definitely a difficult task, but in the obverse a single DNF by Piastri means game on.

It's still difficult just to catch Lando Norris who is more likely to be a race winner in the remaining rounds on current form.

If we think back to 3 years ago when Max had the 2 retirements with just 3-4 rounds completed, he predicted that it would be impossible to come back from 40 points deficit with 20 or so races to go. So we are really underestimating the task at hand. I certainly don't expect it. We can only wait and see. Max is already driving at an absurdly high level and if he were to make a mistake in 1 weekend, I would not begrudge him. His error rate is still much lower than the others. What we are asking from him is a lot imo. If it were any other driver, we wouldn't even be talking about any championship.

[basti313]

In 2022 Max took quickly the lead thanks to Ferrari self-destroying with engine failures and clown strategies. I don't see this happening with McLaren. Plus of course in 2022 there was an entire season to be run, the problem now is that Max basically need to win always, one missed win and he's practically out.

It's definitely a difficult task, but in the obverse a single DNF by Piastri means game on.

At the moment I do not even count Pia:
- The last race Pia was faster was Britain. But only by a little. Since then his trajectory is going down.
- There was only one race in the last races last year, where he did well. The rest was sub par.
- Lando is playing hard and winning with this.

I think the WDC goes between Max and Lando. This is 26 points. So even if Russel wins Vegas or a Ferrari wins Mexico this is possible. Max just needs to finish ahead of Lando.

[AR3-GP]

I wonder if they need to consider more extreme measures with Tsunoda? Have they stockpiled PUs for him yet? His PU must be set to explode in Las Vegas. It's an easy race track with a lot of laptime to gain on the straights. It may be the ideal conditions for him to challenge the Mclarens again.

[Farnborough]

In 2022 Max took quickly the lead thanks to Ferrari self-destroying with engine failures and clown strategies. I don't see this happening with McLaren. Plus of course in 2022 there was an entire season to be run, the problem now is that Max basically need to win always, one missed win and he's practically out.

It's definitely a difficult task, but in the obverse a single DNF by Piastri means game on.

It's still difficult just to catch Lando Norris who is more likely to be a race winner in the remaining rounds on current form.

If we think back to 3 years ago when Max had the 2 retirements with just 3-4 rounds completed, he predicted that it would be impossible to come back from 40 points deficit with 20 or so races to go. So we are really underestimating the task at hand. I certainly don't expect it. We can only wait and see. Max is already driving at an absurdly high level and if he were to make a mistake in 1 weekend, I would not begrudge him. His error rate is still much lower than the others. What we are asking from him is freakish imo.

I feel that overplays the downside potential.

If for example this race finished with Max 1st then Lando 2nd and with Oscar 3rd ... then that takes the difference to +19 for Lando and +30 for Oscar.

It's by no means unrealistic or considered highly unlikely this would happen here. Leaving those points totals not very far out of immediate range to Max with 4 to go. This also "twisted" now significantly, the interaction between the two McL drivers and their aspirations to clinch the WDC as individuals.

The RB development, and performance since Monza has very significant impact that people commenting here seem to partly ignore.

It'll be another exciting weekend certainly.

[basti313]

I wonder if they need to consider more extreme measures with Tsunoda? Have they stockpiled PUs for him yet? His PU must be set to explode in Las Vegas. It's an easy race track with a lot of laptime to gain on the straights. It may be the ideal conditions for him to challenge the Mclarens again.

I do not think that would help. A new engine might give him a tenth or two. That is not even enough to get him into Q3 usually.
In 2021 Mercedes started testing monster engines in Monza with Bottas...for this it is too late and I do not see this happen at all with Honda.

[pantherxxx]

Max just needs to gain a few points every race on Mclarens, and in Las Vegas I predict that Mclaren will suffer anyways, because that track is more like Baku. Championship is more likely for Verstappen than Mclarens at this point.

[AR3-GP]

I feel that overplays the downside potential.

If for example this race finished with Max 1st then Lando 2nd and with Oscar 3rd ... then that takes the difference to +19 for Lando and +30 for Oscar.

It's by no means unrealistic or considered highly unlikely this would happen here. Leaving those points totals not very far out of immediate range to Max with 4 to go. This also "twisted" now significantly, the interaction between the two McL drivers and their aspirations to clinch the WDC as individuals.

The RB development, and performance since Monza has very significant impact that people commenting here seem to partly ignore.

It'll be another exciting weekend certainly.

Yes but my opinion is Lando Norris has another race win in him and that is a problem. I don't think Lando Norris will finish off the podium for the rest of the year.

[venkyhere]

So we are really underestimating the task at hand. I certainly don't expect it. We can only wait and see. Max is already driving at an absurdly high level and if he were to make a mistake in 1 weekend, I would not begrudge him. His error rate is still much lower than the others. What we are asking from him is a lot imo. If it were any other driver, we wouldn't even be talking about any championship.

+1
law of averages is bound to catch up at some point in time. We can only hope it doesn't in the next 5 races.

[Badger]

I feel that overplays the downside potential.

If for example this race finished with Max 1st then Lando 2nd and with Oscar 3rd ... then that takes the difference to +19 for Lando and +30 for Oscar.

It's by no means unrealistic or considered highly unlikely this would happen here. Leaving those points totals not very far out of immediate range to Max with 4 to go. This also "twisted" now significantly, the interaction between the two McL drivers and their aspirations to clinch the WDC as individuals.

The RB development, and performance since Monza has very significant impact that people commenting here seem to partly ignore.

It'll be another exciting weekend certainly.

No single event is very unlikely, but the sequence of events that would need to happen certainly is. It’s already miraculous to have closed 64 points in 4 races. Another 40 points in 5 races is less crazy, but you can’t count on McLaren to crash again.

We also shouldn’t overestimate Red Bull’s performance. Lando was just as fast as Max in COTA when he found free air, probably a bit quicker actually, certainly when you account for the suboptimal set-up and pushing the tyres behind Charles. They were also quicker in the Singapore race. One of these remaining weekends a McLaren driver is going to nail a qualifying lap and start from the front.

[organic]

I feel that overplays the downside potential.

If for example this race finished with Max 1st then Lando 2nd and with Oscar 3rd ... then that takes the difference to +19 for Lando and +30 for Oscar.

It's by no means unrealistic or considered highly unlikely this would happen here. Leaving those points totals not very far out of immediate range to Max with 4 to go. This also "twisted" now significantly, the interaction between the two McL drivers and their aspirations to clinch the WDC as individuals.

The RB development, and performance since Monza has very significant impact that people commenting here seem to partly ignore.

It'll be another exciting weekend certainly.

Yes but my opinion is Lando Norris has another race win in him and that is a problem. I don't think Lando Norris will finish off the podium for the rest of the year.

I think he'll crack mentally at some point, or have some lap 1 issue with Oscar as that situation doesn't seem to be cooling down. We only didn't get to talk about it because Oscar was so slow. Those two are bound to tangle again

[AR3-GP]

We also shouldn’t overestimate Red Bull’s performance. Lando was just as fast as Max in COTA when he found free air, probably a bit quicker actually, certainly when you account for the suboptimal set-up and pushing the tyres behind Charles. They were also quicker in the Singapore race. One of these remaining weekends a McLaren driver is going to nail a qualifying lap and start from the front.

Singapore was supposed to be one of the remaining Mclaren tracks. So the good race pace is not unexpected. I think it was revealing that compared to Singapore in 2024, Max was able to overhaul the Mclarens in qualifying. So the race pace deficit was probably much smaller than last year. As for COTA, could we put it down to track temperature? It was between 46C and 48C. This was always Mclaren's element. It should be 10 or more degrees cooler in all of the remaining circuits.

Brazil was repaved (again) so the tire degradation will be lower.

[AR3-GP]

https://www.meteomotorsport.com/2024/02 ... ology.html


And from the same source, Brazil is statistically the most likely to have rain.

[Stylus_XL]

In 2022 Max took quickly the lead thanks to Ferrari self-destroying with engine failures and clown strategies. I don't see this happening with McLaren. Plus of course in 2022 there was an entire season to be run, the problem now is that Max basically need to win always, one missed win and he's practically out.

It's definitely a difficult task, but in the obverse a single DNF by Piastri means game on.

It's still difficult just to catch Lando Norris who is more likely to be a race winner in the remaining rounds on current form.

If we think back to 3 years ago when Max had the 2 retirements with just 3-4 rounds completed, he predicted that it would be impossible to come back from 40 points deficit with 20 or so races to go. So we are really underestimating the task at hand. I certainly don't expect it. We can only wait and see. Max is already driving at an absurdly high level and if he were to make a mistake in 1 weekend, I would not begrudge him. His error rate is still much lower than the others. What we are asking from him is a lot imo. If it were any other driver, we wouldn't even be talking about any championship.

Max is probably more optimistic about closing the 40-point deficit, because - with all due respect - Oscar isn't Charles. And in addition to that Max has the clear advantage of having witnessed the MCL39's full potential firsthand, while knowing that McLaren halted development long ago. He can directly benchmark it against the latest iteration of the RB21 and feel confident in what should be possible going forward.

Recent trends underline this: Oscar is now consistently finishing behind Lando, who himself is finding it increasingly difficult to finish ahead of Max, even when he appears to have a race pace advantage. Max is always achieving what should be possible, whilst both of the Macca drivers are making minor mistakes with the odd major mistake thrown in for good measure. Who is more likely to drive flawlessly as things go down to the wire? When you look at it in context a 5th WDC is not out of the question.