2025 Mexican Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, Oct 24 - 26

[AR3-GP]

I think any of the top 4 teams could be a surprise here. Lots of overtaking in last year's race. The circuit is also known for T1 crashes.

[organic]

It's Maxico

[...]

Isn't the thinner air more favorable for the smaller Honda turbochargers than the large ones in the Mercedes engines? There was a lot of that talk in 2021, but things look more equal on the engine front so I don't see it come up much nowadays. But Red Bull is more competitive now than the tail end of 2024, so I'm wondering if that will come into play again.

Well prior to 2020 that honda advantage at altitude was very much existent. But I think after 2022 it seems like that engine difference at altitude with Honda is gone, from both what we can see as fans and what those in the paddock have said

[pantherxxx]

The RB21’s dominance at Monza and Baku proves how strong it is when downforce levels are limited.

In Mexico, even with Monaco-style wings, cars produce roughly Monza-level downforce because of the thin air.

So setups that are stable and efficient in low-downforce trim are gold here — and the RB21 excels at exactly that.

Red Bull has been the team to beat in Mexico for years:

2017–2023: 5 wins for Red Bull

Even when Mercedes had dominant engines, they struggled here due to altitude and cooling issues.

McLaren might still be second-best, but Verstappen should be clearly ahead on pure pace.

[venkyhere]

The RB21’s dominance at Monza and Baku proves how strong it is when downforce levels are limited.

In Mexico, even with Monaco-style wings, cars produce roughly Monza-level downforce because of the thin air.

So setups that are stable and efficient in low-downforce trim are gold here — and the RB21 excels at exactly that.

Red Bull has been the team to beat in Mexico for years:

2017–2023: 5 wins for Red Bull

Even when Mercedes had dominant engines, they struggled here due to altitude and cooling issues.

McLaren might still be second-best, but Verstappen should be clearly ahead on pure pace.

My 2cents :
the lower downforce is not just going to be at the rear, it's also going to be at the front. And even with the frankenstein front wing that RB21 now has, it's not going to produce the front end grip that we saw in Monza/Baku, even if the rear is going to be 'loose' even with a 'mid'/'mid-high' rear wing, as the air is thinner. That means, 'rotation' isn't going to be easy. This is where I think the Mclaren (and Mercedes most probably, that car has no predictability about it's behaviour) with it's superior mechanical design of front suspension is going to ace the slow corner rotation, with more conventional front wings. In a way it's good that this isn't a sprint weekend, teams can 'dial in' the balance over 3 FP sessions (some of the big hitters who are going to run rookies in their cars for FP1 will suffer losing 1/3rd of practice, whether it will make a difference is unknown). I consider this non-flowy-stop-start-super-slow-with-super-fast-straight-thin-air Mexico track to be the most challenging in terms of car setup, much more challenging than, say Baku or Canada, even.

[AR3-GP]

The Mexico city circuit isn't raced on except for F1. FP1 is useless. The track is like a cement factory on Friday with the dust. I think that is why it's a popular weekend for running the rookie drivers.

[search]

The Mexico city circuit isn't raced on except for F1. FP1 is useless. The track is like a cement factory on Friday with the dust. I think that is why it's a popular weekend for running the rookie drivers.

NASCAR raced in Mexico this year as well, but that's months ago.

And about the thin air engine advantage... if at all, I'd think the Ferrari powered cars looked better than usual last time. Ferrari won and Magnussen in the Haas got his best result of the year as well - but it of course could also be due to different reasons.

[search]

Eight rookies come in for FP1. Piastri will likely skip FP1 in Abu Dhabi instead

MCL: O'Ward -> Norris
MER: Vesti -> Russell
FER: Fuoco -> Hamilton
RBR: Lindblad -> Verstappen
WIL: Browning -> Sainz
AST: Crawford -> Stroll
HAA: Hirakawa -> Bearman
ALP: Aron -> Gasly

edit: + Iwasa for Lawson. Sauber has completed their rookie tests already.

[venkyhere]

Eight rookies come in for FP1. Piastri will likely skip FP1 in Abu Dhabi instead

MCL: O'Ward -> Norris
MER: Vesti -> Russell
FER: Fuoco -> Hamilton
RBR: Lindblad -> Verstappen
WIL: Browning -> Sainz
AST: Crawford -> Stroll
HAA: Hirakawa -> Bearman
ALP: Aron -> Gasly

If Piastri, LeClerc & Antonelli (not necessarily in the exact order) are not the leading 3 in the laptime chart for FP1, we know which team's car has 'bad setup' and how much work they have to put in over FP2 & FP3, to make the car competitive.

[AR3-GP]

Eight rookies come in for FP1. Piastri will likely skip FP1 in Abu Dhabi instead

MCL: O'Ward -> Norris
MER: Vesti -> Russell
FER: Fuoco -> Hamilton
RBR: Lindblad -> Verstappen
WIL: Browning -> Sainz
AST: Crawford -> Stroll
HAA: Hirakawa -> Bearman
ALP: Aron -> Gasly

edit: + Iwasa for Lawson. Sauber has completed their rookie tests already.

I'd anticipate a couple of red flags. So FP1 will be even more useless.

[basti313]

Which is ok and should not play the biggest role, right? RedBull seems to have solved the setup problem, McL never had it...so FP1 should not be a game changer for anyone.

[AR3-GP]

Would a driver still be able to go unpunished cutting T1 on the first lap like in 2016?

[organic]

Would a driver still be able to go unpunished cutting T1 on the first lap like in 2016?

Highly doubt it, but Alonso might try for fun

[venkyhere]

If what I read/watch in the internet leading up to the Mexico GP is true, then Mexico city is located somewhere in the himalayas, near Mount Everest, where the air is so thin that humans and cars need oxygen tanks to breath, thus making aero surfaces on the cars useless.
Air density is still more than 3/4ths of what it is at sea level. Downforce/wings/drag -> they still matter.

[AR3-GP]

[Wouter]

Would a driver still be able to go unpunished cutting T1 on the first lap like in 2016?

.
Last year it was Sainz who did it but gave back the place immediately.