2025 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[AR3-GP]

Leclerc and Russell will challenge the Mclaren drivers at some point.

[rbirules]

Leclerc and Russell will challenge the Mclaren drivers at some point.

True. Charles wasn't too far behind the McLarens in Monza (remember the imminent undercut threat that started Papaya rules intervention?), several cars beat Lando in Baku, George (along with Max) beat both McLaren's in Singapore, and Charles battled Norris hard for most of the race in COTA. And of course Charles and Oli beat Oscar in Mexico.

The flip side of that is that George also beat Max in Singapore and Charles also beat Max in Mexico (lack of late VSC might have changed that, but it's a risk). That's 10 points lost right there. (Slightly better qualifying results might have saved all those points.) One more incident of that happening and Max will need significant help, on top of being perfect at all other events.

[AR3-GP]

Leclerc and Russell will challenge the Mclaren drivers at some point.

True. Charles wasn't too far behind the McLarens in Monza (remember the imminent undercut threat that started Papaya rules intervention?), several cars beat Lando in Baku, George (along with Max) beat both McLaren's in Singapore, and Charles battled Norris hard for most of the race in COTA. And of course Charles and Oli beat Oscar in Mexico.

The flip side of that is that George also beat Max in Singapore and Charles also beat Max in Mexico (lack of late VSC might have changed that, but it's a risk). That's 10 points lost right there. (Slightly better qualifying results might have saved all those points.) One more incident of that happening and Max will need significant help, on top of being perfect at all other events.

I think Mexico was an outlier and the cars will converge again. When the cars are closer who do you bet on to beat Leclerc/Russell? Max, Lando, or Oscar?

[rbirules]

Leclerc and Russell will challenge the Mclaren drivers at some point.

True. Charles wasn't too far behind the McLarens in Monza (remember the imminent undercut threat that started Papaya rules intervention?), several cars beat Lando in Baku, George (along with Max) beat both McLaren's in Singapore, and Charles battled Norris hard for most of the race in COTA. And of course Charles and Oli beat Oscar in Mexico.

The flip side of that is that George also beat Max in Singapore and Charles also beat Max in Mexico (lack of late VSC might have changed that, but it's a risk). That's 10 points lost right there. (Slightly better qualifying results might have saved all those points.) One more incident of that happening and Max will need significant help, on top of being perfect at all other events.

I think Mexico was an outlier and the cars will converge again. When the cars are closer who do you bet on to beat Leclerc/Russell? Max, Lando, or Oscar?

Not disagreeing. Insanely hot temps in Mexico favored McLaren, trying new parts on Max's car without him doing FP1 put them on the backfoot all weekend, and I think without the VSC Max finishes 2nd and limits the damage to Lando and possibly increases the gap to Oscar (though Oscar might have gotten by Oli, but he didn't have the same tire difference Max did on Charles, different compounds).

Cars converging could hurt or help Max as the chaser but you have to hope for that chance. Lando has very good pace, in general, and more specifically of late in his current form, but he doesn't always move through the field very well if he qualifies out of position (didn't improve at all in Baku). I feel like Oscar is slightly better in that regard but his current form isn't nearly as good (and perhaps I get that impression because he had a large car advantage early in the year).

Max ideally has to keep qualifying in front of the McLarens (and ideally in front of everybody), but I think he's the best of the three at pulling off moves in a race, especially if the cars are close. Singapore is almost impossible to pass so that race was lost in Q3, and again, I think he gets Charles without the VSC. Yes he put himself in position to be behind several cars, but as we said, I think Mexico was an outlier, for a variety of reasons. Hopefully Vegas goes better than last year with the new low downforce rear wing (Monza and Baku did not go well last year, and Max was 5th in Vegas).

[f1isgood]

I don't think any fight for the title can be on unless there's a Norris stinker. Norris is in a good headspace, he is driving well and only things outside of his control will take the title away from him. While mathematically what you said is possible, I am not ruling out Norris winning at least some of the remaining races.

Verstappen needs a miracle. He always did but he needs it to happen as soon as possible.

I see Max being able to challenge for a win at Vegas and Qatar. Brazil will be McLaren territory and Abu Dhabi as well will be McLaren territory. So we will see how it all goes.

[Wouter]

[rbirules]

I don't think any fight for the title can be on unless there's a Norris stinker. Norris is in a good headspace, he is driving well and only things outside of his control will take the title away from him. While mathematically what you said is possible, I am not ruling out Norris winning at least some of the remaining races.

Verstappen needs a miracle. He always did but he needs it to happen as soon as possible.

I see Max being able to challenge for a win at Vegas and Qatar. Brazil will be McLaren territory and Abu Dhabi as well will be McLaren territory. So we will see how it all goes.

I don't mean to be pedantic but your first sentence and the bolded underlined part are at odds with one another. I think everybody that is talking about Max's WDC chances, or rather his possible paths to a WDC, recognize that the chances are very low (or at least I do), but they do exist, and do not require Norris to have a stinker. Unless you consider finishing 3rd, or 4th (or maybe even 5th) a stinker, which you very well might given his car and current form. I wouldn't consider 3rd (behind Max and George, Charles or Oscar) a stinker, even 4th behind three of them if it was at McLaren's bogey track, Vegas.

If things return to the Monza-COTA level where Max is consistently fighting for poles and wins then I think Max has a 75-80% chance of winning any individual event. That gives him a 30-40% chance of winning every GP. With a 50-65% chance of winning both sprints (I did this separate since the point swings are much smaller and getting 2nd or 3rd there is possible to overcome, 2nd or 3rd in a GP and it's pretty much over).

If Red Bull can get the newest upgrades to work and the RB21 looks like legitimately the best car on the grid, even by a small margin, I'd say Max's odds of winning any particular race goes up to 85-90% based on how often he won with dominant machinery in 2023 and early 2024. That gives him a 50-65% chance of winning every remaining GP, and a 70-80% chance of winning both sprints.

Overall that's a 20-25% chance on the low end (assuming the RB21 is close to the MCL39) and a 35-40% chance of winning every event on the high end. As I've shown even if Max is perfect to finish the season he needs one or both McLaren drivers to not finish 2nd twice, or finish 2nd three times and finish 4th or lower.

What are the chances the RB21 stays at Monza-COTA levels relative to the MCL39? Maybe 25-30%? What are the chances that the upgrade makes the RB21 better than the MCL39 at all tracks? 5-10%? What are the chances that McLaren is easily the best car at one of the remaining tracks like it just was at Mexico? 30-40% Maybe even higher? 50-60%? That might still be low if we're talking the chance of being the best at any one of four remaining tracks (likely three as I doubt they will be the best in Vegas).

The good thing for Max's (slim) chances is the order. Brazil is a McLaren favored track, but one Max is very good on. Also one of Oscar's better tracks. Oscar just lost the WDC lead to his teammate, if he can be close in either the sprint or the GP there could be some intra-team fighting. also this is the last chance for a wet race, which could help bring Max closer to the McLarens (even if that car is good in the rain and both drivers are solid in the rain). If Max can take both the sprint and the GP in Brazil it starts to add some pressure (even without a McLaren fight). Then comes McLaren's worst track. How bad it is could really change what the WDC looks like going to Qatar. If Max is well under a race wins worth of points going into Qatar he has to feel good (not great), with a chance to take at least 15 points from the next best driver over the remaining three races. Pressure will be crazy high if he's 15 points, or fewer, off the lead going to Qatar. Then in AD if it's still alive it will likely be that any of three drivers could win it all under various scenarios.

OR, McLaren dominate Brazil and Max is 40+ points back and it's a McLaren battle from there on out (or Oscar continues his poor form and Lando is in a great position heading to Vegas).

[f1isgood]

I don't think any fight for the title can be on unless there's a Norris stinker. Norris is in a good headspace, he is driving well and only things outside of his control will take the title away from him. While mathematically what you said is possible, I am not ruling out Norris winning at least some of the remaining races.

Verstappen needs a miracle. He always did but he needs it to happen as soon as possible.

I see Max being able to challenge for a win at Vegas and Qatar. Brazil will be McLaren territory and Abu Dhabi as well will be McLaren territory. So we will see how it all goes.

I don't mean to be pedantic but your first sentence and the bolded underlined part are at odds with one another. I think everybody that is talking about Max's WDC chances, or rather his possible paths to a WDC, recognize that the chances are very low (or at least I do), but they do exist, and do not require Norris to have a stinker. Unless you consider finishing 3rd, or 4th (or maybe even 5th) a stinker, which you very well might given his car and current form. I wouldn't consider 3rd (behind Max and George, Charles or Oscar) a stinker, even 4th behind three of them if it was at McLaren's bogey track, Vegas.

If things return to the Monza-COTA level where Max is consistently fighting for poles and wins then I think Max has a 75-80% chance of winning any individual event. That gives him a 30-40% chance of winning every GP. With a 50-65% chance of winning both sprints (I did this separate since the point swings are much smaller and getting 2nd or 3rd there is possible to overcome, 2nd or 3rd in a GP and it's pretty much over).

If Red Bull can get the newest upgrades to work and the RB21 looks like legitimately the best car on the grid, even by a small margin, I'd say Max's odds of winning any particular race goes up to 85-90% based on how often he won with dominant machinery in 2023 and early 2024. That gives him a 50-65% chance of winning every remaining GP, and a 70-80% chance of winning both sprints.

Overall that's a 20-25% chance on the low end (assuming the RB21 is close to the MCL39) and a 35-40% chance of winning every event on the high end. As I've shown even if Max is perfect to finish the season he needs one or both McLaren drivers to not finish 2nd twice, or finish 2nd three times and finish 4th or lower.

What are the chances the RB21 stays at Monza-COTA levels relative to the MCL39? Maybe 25-30%? What are the chances that the upgrade makes the RB21 better than the MCL39 at all tracks? 5-10%? What are the chances that McLaren is easily the best car at one of the remaining tracks like it just was at Mexico? 30-40% Maybe even higher? 50-60%? That might still be low if we're talking the chance of being the best at any one of four remaining tracks (likely three as I doubt they will be the best in Vegas).

The good thing for Max's (slim) chances is the order. Brazil is a McLaren favored track, but one Max is very good on. Also one of Oscar's better tracks. Oscar just lost the WDC lead to his teammate, if he can be close in either the sprint or the GP there could be some intra-team fighting. also this is the last chance for a wet race, which could help bring Max closer to the McLarens (even if that car is good in the rain and both drivers are solid in the rain). If Max can take both the sprint and the GP in Brazil it starts to add some pressure (even without a McLaren fight). Then comes McLaren's worst track. How bad it is could really change what the WDC looks like going to Qatar. If Max is well under a race wins worth of points going into Qatar he has to feel good (not great), with a chance to take at least 15 points from the next best driver over the remaining three races. Pressure will be crazy high if he's 15 points, or fewer, off the lead going to Qatar. Then in AD if it's still alive it will likely be that any of three drivers could win it all under various scenarios.

OR, McLaren dominate Brazil and Max is 40+ points back and it's a McLaren battle from there on out (or Oscar continues his poor form and Lando is in a great position heading to Vegas).

Re stinker: That would be Norris in P5 or below. I just don't see it happen. For the first time in a while I actually think he is driving like he is in the midfield. No pressure just performance.

I don't think the upgrades are significant.

I agree with the general assessment that Oscar needs to be up there. The only way Max gets a break is if Oscar and Norris fight and that causes some drama. We need serious drama.

Max I think wins more than 70% of races if the car is actually matched with the opponents car. If it's clearly the best, he wins 90%+ races imo.

But Max winning races is not in his own hands. It could end in a SC/VSC drama, some random mechanical failure or anything of that sort. Red Bull are certainly not the most reliable team either these regulations.

Treating events as independent, I optimistically give Max a 25% chance of winning the races in Brazil, a 50% chance of winning Vegas and Qatar and 25 percent winning at Abu Dhabi personally. That would be less than 2 percent chance of title. I think thats how much I think his real chances are.

That said, if he is going into Qatar at 14 points or less, I can totally see nerves popping up at McLaren and that would make one hell of an end to the season.

[lio007]

Pierre Waché was not at the track this weekend?

[venkyhere]

Everyone seems to think that the Mclaren will be a dud at Vegas, I actually think they will be in the fight for the win, as this years car is vastly improved over last years car. Their tyre thing this year is something which no other car has - keep the heat when track is cold and get rid of it rapidly when track is hot, a feedback-loop based thermal exchange mechanism.

[AR3-GP]

Everyone seems to think that the Mclaren will be a dud at Vegas, I actually think they will be in the fight for the win, as this years car is vastly improved over last years car. Their tyre thing this year is something which no other car has - keep the heat when track is cold and get rid of it rapidly when track is hot, a feedback-loop based thermal exchange mechanism.

Its not a case of Mclaren being a "dud". Mclaren was fast in Monza and Baku. The difference in Las Vegas is that Mercedes will come into the fold (in theory).

[Sergej]

[venkyhere]

While we are discussing the gamut of 'possible favourable outcomes in the next 4 races' at length ; what we should discuss instead is 'what floor is going to be used henceforth, the mexico one or the monza one ?' , because after looking at a picture posted in the car thread, the change done on the Mexico floor seems 'too big' compared to the Monza floor.





Monza floor's diffuser kickup starts beneath the 'hexagon' sticker location, while the Mexico floor's diffuser kickup starts beneath the 'HD' sticker location. Basically, a 'longer' venturi neck in the old has been shortened in the new, to increase the effective diffuser 'volume' but making the expansion 'gentler'. That is an enormous change (perhaps this is an old RB20 or early RB21 floor circled back into the pool ?) -- no wonder they struggled and didn't achieve the optimal setup in Mexico (perhaps Max missing FP1 did more damage than they expected or perhaps they are again 'away from the sweet spot' without the Monza floor).

What floor(s) are they going to use in the next four races ? I think that will be the turnkey, rather than relative driver performances across teams.

PS : in my opinion, if they get the new floor to work, it will be mega, as seen in the laptimes Max was posting on softs in the last stint of Mexico GP - the gills opened up on the engine cover basically destroy the air that is hitting the rear DF structures (a problem that was minimal for Mclaren), apart from increasing drag of course. Which means the reason Max's softs lasted for 33+ (or 32 or whatever) number of laps (like they did for Norris in his first stint), can't be all be because of 'driver expertise' , the car still had proper downforce in the rear, and the share of rear DF that was coming from the floor had to be more.

[rbirules]

While we are discussing the gamut of 'possible favourable outcomes in the next 4 races' at length ; what we should discuss instead is 'what floor is going to be used henceforth, the mexico one or the monza one ?' , because after looking at a picture posted in the car thread, the change done on the Mexico floor seems 'too big' compared to the Monza floor.


https://d3cm515ijfiu6w.cloudfront.net/w ... arison.jpg


Monza floor's diffuser kickup starts beneath the 'hexagon' sticker location, while the Mexico floor's diffuser kickup starts beneath the 'HD' sticker location. Basically, a 'longer' venturi neck in the old has been shortened in the new, to increase the effective diffuser 'volume' but making the expansion 'gentler'. That is an enormous change (perhaps this is an old RB20 or early RB21 floor circled back into the pool ?) -- no wonder they struggled and didn't achieve the optimal setup in Mexico (perhaps Max missing FP1 did more damage than they expected or perhaps they are again 'away from the sweet spot' without the Monza floor).

What floor(s) are they going to use in the next four races ? I think that will be the turnkey, rather than relative driver performances across teams.

PS : in my opinion, if they get the new floor to work, it will be mega, as seen in the laptimes Max was posting on softs in the last stint of Mexico GP - the gills opened up on the engine cover basically destroy the air that is hitting the rear DF structures (a problem that was minimal for Mclaren), apart from increasing drag of course. Which means the reason Max's softs lasted for 33+ (or 32 or whatever) number of laps (like they did for Norris in his first stint), can't be all be because of 'driver expertise' , the car still had proper downforce in the rear, and the share of rear DF that was coming from the floor had to be more.

They'll have exactly one practice session in order to make a decision before SQ, or rather one practice session to see if they like the decision they made.

[venkyhere]

1:1 comparison pic b/w McL39 and RB21 (mexico version) in car thread :
https://www.f1technical.net/forum/viewt ... 5#p1307785