2026 Pecking order predictions

[vorticism]

Verstappen (great powertrain)
Adrian Martin (quick turnaround)
Mercedes
McLaren
Ferrari
Verstappen (good powertrain)
Adrian Martin (slow turnaround)
Williams
Verstappen (bad powertrain)

Audi is an unknown to me.

[the EDGE]

The only way we could ever compare is if there were people who had reliable data from different teams. Do those people exist? Are there governing bodies who have those kind of overviews? Suppliers?

I think the entire assumption RB is bad is based on extrapolations ans Horners' vocal calls to change.

For me, the latter might just as well be evidence they knew their strong points early and tried to capitalise on it. How is asking for more ICE and less electrical power a sign of a bad ICE? To me it sounds like confidence you have developed something cool on the ICE side that will be hard to copy.

Or you are weak on the electrical recovery side

[ali623]

The only way we could ever compare is if there were people who had reliable data from different teams. Do those people exist? Are there governing bodies who have those kind of overviews? Suppliers?

The paddock talks, rumours of Aston Martin's performance prior to the 2023 season ended up being true - I remember Horner specifically mentioning in an interview he was expecting them to take a massive step.

Similarly, there were lot's of rumours prior to 2022 that Mercedes had a concept that would potentially dominate those regs. Obviously that was based on the wind tunnel numbers, so again the rumours were technically true, albeit the concept failed.

The current rumours of 2026's engines, Mercedes is going to be the best out the gates, Ferrari are stuggling ect. probably are largely true at present. Of course, things could change between now and the start of the season.

[Jambier]

We talk a lot about power train but:

- car will be heavier due to bigger battery
- but the rules lower the minimum weight (-30kg)

I believe we will have huge differences between cars, up to 40kg.

That will also be a key.

Regarding pecking order:

Group 1: Mercedes/Mclaren
Group 1 maybe or 2: Ferrari/Aston/ Red
Mid group: Alpine / Williams
Last group: Cadillac, Racing bulls, Audi, Haas


I expect the pecking order to change very strongly depending tracks and that will be very nice to watch

[peewon]

FIA has already said, they will try to normalize the engine performance, to avoid 2014 like scenario. So I don't think the engine performance is going to be such a big deal. Reliability could be where races are won and lost.

1. Aston Martin. (Newey)
2. McLaren
3. Mercedes
4. Alpine (Mercedes engine)
5. Red Bull (questionable engine reliability)

The sheer fact that they came out and said this tells me there is a good chance that one PU (Mercedes) is expected to be significantly better. So my prediction:

Tier 1: Mercedes/McLaren/ Ferrari if their high risk gambles pay off

Tier 2: Williams/Aston/Alpine/Max /Ferrari if it doesnt pay off

Tier 3: Haas/RB/VCarb

Tier4 : Audi/Cadillac

[haza]

An educated guess at best

1: McLaren
2: Mercedes +0.1
3: Ferrari + 0.2
4: Williams + 0.4
5: redbull +0.4
6: Aston Martin +0.5
7: alpine + 0.6
8: racing bulls +0.8
9: Cadillac + 0.9
10: Audi + 1.2
11: haas + 1.4

[basti313]

I am waiting for his answer: https://www.f1technical.net/forum/viewt ... 73#p464673

[Badger]

I am waiting for his answer: https://www.f1technical.net/forum/viewt ... 73#p464673

Not a bad guess. He just underestimated the differences of the 2014 engines but mostly got the pecking order correct on both the chassi and engine side.

It's hard to say if 2026 will be a repeat of 2014 when it comes to the engine. There was really nothing magical about Mercedes' success, they just started earlier and invested more money before 2014. This time around I feel like the other manufacturers will not be caught out as easily, at least not to the same extent as 2014. The newcomers are a question mark.

[vorticism]

Mclaren's success has required two large unspoken components: Red Bull's management crisis and Red Bull's prior art. The MCL39 visually is the true RB21. The actual RB21 looks more like an RB20B. Yes, all the teams benefited from seeing the RB18-RB20, as they all adopted those cars' features, but no so expertly as McLaren. Heading into this coming regulations change, McLaren will be in the same boat as everyone else: not having Adrian Newey, who is credited with shaping the previous two regulations changes. So if there's no one to expertly emulate, then McLaren's odds going into 2026 do not seem so great to me. They will be strong, though, as a team, an operation, regardless.

Aston Martin, by the same token, are in a bit of a pickle. While they stand to nail the aero concept the first time around with Newey, if it's too early in their restructuring process, the chassis & operations side might not be able to take advantage of it, which means they'll be potentially giving away the peak aero concept away for free to the other teams, on a car that's not fully set up yet. If by the time Aston Martin do get all of their cogs oiled in that scenario, they won't have the aero concept advantage anymore, as the other teams will have appropriated it by then. So I imagine there must be a bit of pressure in Silverstone, then--some article mentioned Newey was sleeping in the office.

A good synopsis. With so many changes leading into this next era - personnel, PU, substantial loss of GE interaction, approach to E in overall scheme, moving aero interpretation etc- it would seem difficult to project anything with much certainty.

I have a vague feeling we'll be seeing lots of different race winners next year, with no clear pairings of engine-designer-driver superiorities. To speak of those varied changes you mention, it could very well be that: Mercedes HPP is kneecapped by the regs. Newey is kneecapped by AMR. Verstappen is kneecapped by RBR/RBPT-Ford. That could again leave operations and other subtleties as the differentiating factor. Advantage: McLaren. Unless I'm blind on this. Who am I underappreciating in terms of opps/strat? Williams? Mercedes? RBR?

[pantherxxx]

Aston will not win anything with 44 years old Alonso and Stroll. Red Bull will be probably stronger than now, because they can react well to new regs, and Verstappen will make the difference and will get his 5th title in 2026.

[BorisTheBlade]

One takeaway from the current rules for me was that because of the Budget Cap there is a real chance for midfielders to climb up the pecking order as well as Top Teams coming down.
Aston, Williams and Alpine to a certain degree concentrated much more of their finite resources on 2026 than McL and RBR. Ferrari and Mercedes were somewhere in the middle.
Although I also think that Mercedes might have a slight edge on the Powertrain side, it hopefully won't be as brutal as 2014. RBPT might indeed be facing an uphill battle.

So, purely based on gut feeling:

T1
Ast, Mer, McL

T2 +0,3s
Fer, Wil, RBR

T3 +0,6s
Alpine

T4 +1s
VCARB, Haas, Audi

T5 +1,5s
Cadillac

[Henk_v]

The only way we could ever compare is if there were people who had reliable data from different teams. Do those people exist? Are there governing bodies who have those kind of overviews? Suppliers?

I think the entire assumption RB is bad is based on extrapolations ans Horners' vocal calls to change.

For me, the latter might just as well be evidence they knew their strong points early and tried to capitalise on it. How is asking for more ICE and less electrical power a sign of a bad ICE? To me it sounds like confidence you have developed something cool on the ICE side that will be hard to copy.

Or you are weak on the electrical recovery side

Electrical recovery is old tech and well documented. F1 is not the first to develop maximum effeciency of a generating device. The design of such devices is well documented. The recivery tech is the same they have now. Just a bit bigger.
I think the game will be deployment and driver tools to maximise the per-lap efficiency. These are complex cars in terms of deployment and teams will have to balance the cognitive load they put on the driver.

[Henk_v]

Aston will not win anything with 44 years old Alonso and Stroll. Red Bull will be probably stronger than now, because they can react well to new regs, and Verstappen will make the difference and will get his 5th title in 2026.

Remember redbull "hastily slapped something together" last minute and came to Barcelona with a car they labeled themselves as "unfinished" in 2022? (And no, I do not believe Newey had much to do with it)

With a bold new engine project, you will have many sceptics. You bet they will feed those trolls as to not show their hand

[basti313]

I am waiting for his answer: https://www.f1technical.net/forum/viewt ... 73#p464673

Not a bad guess. He just underestimated the differences of the 2014 engines but mostly got the pecking order correct on both the chassi and engine side.

It's hard to say if 2026 will be a repeat of 2014 when it comes to the engine. There was really nothing magical about Mercedes' success, they just started earlier and invested more money before 2014. This time around I feel like the other manufacturers will not be caught out as easily, at least not to the same extent as 2014. The newcomers are a question mark.

Well, I think this IS still "a" and the same difference:
- Honda started late. Was out of F1, really started new towards end 22. No one can tell me, that they spend millions on developing the next F1 zylinder while being out.
- Audi started half a year earlier than Honda with their new factory. Still not early and no previous F1 V6.
- RBPT started very late, serious engine developments started in 2023! No one knows if any knowledge from Honda was transferred.
- Merc and Ferrari are all-in since mid 2021, since they know 1.6l V6 without MGUH and especially Merc had a substantial ICE dev program in 2021 of which they still profit today in F1. Hamilton did not go to Ferrari to get a second best engine...this move is still telling.

So, I would be very surprised if we see anything else but Merc and Ferrari upfront.

[Cassius]

I am waiting for his answer: https://www.f1technical.net/forum/viewt ... 73#p464673

Not a bad guess. He just underestimated the differences of the 2014 engines but mostly got the pecking order correct on both the chassi and engine side.

It's hard to say if 2026 will be a repeat of 2014 when it comes to the engine. There was really nothing magical about Mercedes' success, they just started earlier and invested more money before 2014. This time around I feel like the other manufacturers will not be caught out as easily, at least not to the same extent as 2014. The newcomers are a question mark.

Well, I think this IS still "a" and the same difference:
- Honda started late. Was out of F1, really started new towards end 22. No one can tell me, that they spend millions on developing the next F1 zylinder while being out.
- Audi started half a year earlier than Honda with their new factory. Still not early and no previous F1 V6.
- RBPT started very late, serious engine developments started in 2023! No one knows if any knowledge from Honda was transferred.
- Merc and Ferrari are all-in since mid 2021, since they know 1.6l V6 without MGUH and especially Merc had a substantial ICE dev program in 2021 of which they still profit today in F1. Hamilton did not go to Ferrari to get a second best engine...this move is still telling.

So, I would be very surprised if we see anything else but Merc and Ferrari upfront.

A lot of untrue statements in your post.

Most important one is on RBPT. They fired up their first 6-cilinder on August 3, 2022 already. In 2021 they already had 197 people being part of RBPT of which 123 in design.