2025 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[Emag]

This could indirectly help out RedBull in Qatar as well :

F1 limits drivers to just 25 laps per set of tyres for Qatar Grand Prix

[Bill]

FIA inspects all cars and orders removal of devices to avoid plank wear in Brazil. I suspect redbull maybe one of the team affected,therefore they may have been forced to raise floor which reduce overall performance.

[CjC]

FIA inspects all cars and orders removal of devices to avoid plank wear in Brazil. I suspect redbull maybe one of the team affected,therefore they may have been forced to raise floor which reduce overall performance.

Have I gone back to 2024 again?

[organic]

FIA inspects all cars and orders removal of devices to avoid plank wear in Brazil. I suspect redbull maybe one of the team affected,therefore they may have been forced to raise floor which reduce overall performance.

Did you read a story from 2024 and not check the date on it?

[venkyhere]

It would surprise me if Max came out of here with substantially more % chance of championship than going into this race. That's barring any significant dropout from LN and McL.

Your '% chance' phrase, set forth a train of thought :

a) to keep it simple, we consider P11-P20,DNF as a single 'position', as all non-point scoring positions can be lumped together, when we are concerned only about points collected to win WDC
b) each race has 11 possible positions for one driver, leaving 10 positions for the other driver. However double DNF is also possible. So (11x10)+1 = 111 possible 'position pair' s for each race.
c) take three races, and we have 111^3 = 1,367,631 a.k.a approx 1.37 million total possibilities of finishing positions for both drivers over the next three races, even after simplification (a).
d) if we go full-suite, ie 20+DNF = 21 positions, we will have ((21x20)+1)^3 = 74,618,461 a.k.a approx 74.62 million total possibilities of finishing positions for both drivers over the next three races.

I will leave it to you (or other mathematically inclined members), to choose (c) or (d) and then attach 'points' to each of the three 'position-pair' within every single possibility (each out of the 1.37 or 74.62 million) and then 'rank' each 'position pair triplet' with 0 where sigma(Max) - sigma(Norris) < 49, and with 1 where sigma(Max) - sigma(Norris) >= 49 occurs.

sigma ('ranks') / 1,37 (or 74.62) million = probability that Max wins the WDC.

[Emag]

No need to put it in numbers. I think it should be obvious to people now that the title is not exactly in Max's hands. He needs at least one Lando DNF and at least one more horrible result by him accompanied with that DNF in the remaining 3 races + Sprint.

The probability of that happening? Well, it's 100% if someone decides to take Lando out two races in a row
Hard to calculate actual probability numbers in this sport though, because there's many variables to take into consideration. Lando may wake up sick one day. Maybe another driver sneezes while going wheel to wheel with Lando and takes him out. You could get an unlucky puncture. McLaren & Lando could mess up again and break procedure by not slowing down for double yellows. And so on ...

That's why I really like the classic Murray Walker line : "Everything can happen in Formula 1, and it usually does!"

Until you're mathematically out of it, then there's no reason for Max/RedBull to give up. And I would say that for the other side, it would be foolish to "relax" too. They have to give it their all and try to win every race. I personally disagree with Nico's approach in 2016. He fizzled out in the last couple of races of that season and was almost settling for P2s because he knew it was enough to give him the title. If he had pushed to get at least one more win in the last 4 races, it would have made Abu Dhabi a hell of a lot more comfortable than it was for him ...

[Farnborough]

Yep agree, would describe as "ostensibly out of range" in normal scoring circumstances during which these three are in the points.

Its the uncontrollable, a DNF for a McL that could open the door to have a "look through" that moves the compass any.

Looks like Lando can sleep easy to me.

The engine techs etc are going to be sweating I think with these next races

Maybe tbe strategists too

[venkyhere]

All possiblities are accommodated in the 'algorithm' in my post. I would be glad to see someone implement it as a program and make it spit out the result - my guess is that the probability (even with 1.37 million as the base) of Max winning WDC is "spectacularly low". But nevertheless, the math doesn't take into account 'pressure that comes from a DNF' or 'pressure than comes from finishing not in the points due to some unfortunate penalty'. Max fans can cling-onto-hope for one more (LasVegas) race, I guess.

[Emag]

All possiblities are accommodated in the 'algorithm' in my post. I would be glad to see someone implement it as a program and make it spit out the result - my guess is that the probability (even with 1.37 million as the base) of Max winning WDC is "spectacularly low". But nevertheless, the math doesn't take into account 'pressure that comes from a DNF' or 'pressure than comes from finishing not in the points due to some unfortunate penalty'. Max fans can cling-onto-hope for one more (LasVegas) race, I guess.

Here you go :

Races considered: 3
Current gap (Max - Norris): -49
Target lead for Max to clinch/achieve: >= 1
Total equally-likely outcomes counted: 74,618,461
Favorable outcomes (Max finishes >= 1 ahead): 254,860
Probability = 0.341551%

Code : https://pastebin.com/iUgwDDsN

EDIT : Tried another version with weighted finishing positions taking into consideration both drivers results so far and that spewed out a slightly bigger number Probability = 0.347732%

[vorticism]

I am curious, but wasn't Alonso's Renault understeery when he won championships? So it is possible to be fast with understeer ....

.. Any car that understeers isn't maximising its rotational speed, that is direct time loss. Therefore an understeery car can't be driven to it's theoretical performance limit .....

'theoretical performance limit' ?

the Renault had c 35/65 weight distribution ....
faster exiting the corner (than would be the currently mandated 44/56) because more and earlier power can be used
(the reason F1 went from being front-engined to being rear-engined)

Makes me think of how darty those cars could be. The speed of direction changes they could achieve when warming tyres, threading chicanes. Hard to beat a light nose--the front axles of that generation must have been around 150 kg lighter than they are now. And some still want to add a front axle motor!

Regarding over/understeer: taken as the discrepancy between steering lock and intended trajectory, any road car regardless of weight distribution should be able to achieve such discrepancies, even if minuscule and only perceptible by a racing driver.

Alternatively, taken as the driver's sense of resistance to rotation, or slowness of direction change, front heavy cars are of course known for that and some will call that understeer, as a feeling rather than an engineer's measurement of the discrepancy between steering lock & trajectory.

Could a DeltaWing ever been known as being more prone to oversteer than a pickup truck with an unladen bed? No. But both could be set up to have relatively more over or understeer relative to themselves. I'm not sure if a theoretical maximum corner speed of a car is more accessible via OS or US. Is understeer an intrinsic quality, or a spook that appears based upon the minutia of set up? If intrinsic, then you have a car whose theoretical maximum cornering speed is achieved by managing understeer (instead of managing oversteer) and thus the driver must acknowledge that. If understeer is a result of setup then the setup defines the theoretical maximum cornering speed and the driver must request this setup and the mechanics & engineers must provide it.

I guess both of you are right and wrong, depending on who you ask; and when, and where, and the time of the day.

[Bill]

FIA inspects all cars and orders removal of devices to avoid plank wear in Brazil. I suspect redbull maybe one of the team affected,therefore they may have been forced to raise floor which reduce overall performance.

Did you read a story from 2024 and not check the date on it?

https://www.as-web.jp/f1/1270195

[venkyhere]

All possiblities are accommodated in the 'algorithm' in my post. I would be glad to see someone implement it as a program and make it spit out the result - my guess is that the probability (even with 1.37 million as the base) of Max winning WDC is "spectacularly low". But nevertheless, the math doesn't take into account 'pressure that comes from a DNF' or 'pressure than comes from finishing not in the points due to some unfortunate penalty'. Max fans can cling-onto-hope for one more (LasVegas) race, I guess.

Here you go :

Races considered: 3
Current gap (Max - Norris): -49
Target lead for Max to clinch/achieve: >= 1
Total equally-likely outcomes counted: 74,618,461
Favorable outcomes (Max finishes >= 1 ahead): 254,860
Probability = 0.341551%

Code : https://pastebin.com/iUgwDDsN

EDIT : Tried another version with weighted finishing positions taking into consideration both drivers results so far and that spewed out a slightly bigger number Probability = 0.347732%

Thank you !!
This (0.0034) is way more than what I intuitively expected (0.001). Shows how off the mark 'blind guessing' can be.


Edit : just realized what I an imbecile I have been. Didn't take into account the Qatar sprint. Nevertheless, thanks for spending your time for this exercise.

[organic]

FIA inspects all cars and orders removal of devices to avoid plank wear in Brazil. I suspect redbull maybe one of the team affected,therefore they may have been forced to raise floor which reduce overall performance.

Did you read a story from 2024 and not check the date on it?

https://www.as-web.jp/f1/1270195

I reckon that website just accidentally set the publication date for a story last year to 2025 because there's been no noise about plank inspections this year in brazil, but there were lots last year after Brazil

[AR3-GP]

""What can we learn for the upcoming races in Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi? At least we now know which floor we are going to use next, and we now also know which sash adjustment works best."

https://www.gptoday.net/nl/nieuws/f1/29 ... verstappen

Do not fall for this

[Badger]

""What can we learn for the upcoming races in Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi? At least we now know which floor we are going to use next, and we now also know which sash adjustment works best."

https://www.gptoday.net/nl/nieuws/f1/29 ... verstappen

Do not fall for this

Fall for what? Seems pretty obvious that the old floor was working better.