2025 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[Vettel165]

No words, maybe just what a lap by Max…

[AR3-GP]

It's a shame that Mercedes destroyed Tsunoda's good floor in FP3. He had to be put on an older spec. I think he could have qualified higher.

[Juzh]

Max's pole lap 1:22.207 - just a tenth off his 2021 record

https://streamable.com/wzgv17

[Alo_Fan]

Max has done what he needed to do. All he can do now is invite Norris to make a mistake, and hope to get lucky. Odds are still heavily in favour of Lando but stranger things have happened.

Might need to bait Lando into having a go into turn 1 and then hold the inside and make Norris yield. Otherwise, he'll mostly have to rely on Lando having a terrible start or contact. Not sure how much backing the drivers behind and forming a train is going to help things.

As long as he keeps the field tightly bunched behind, by acting like a SC in sector 3, it means Norris should in theory struggle to undercut him as if he does he'll be in traffic and Max can pick up the pace up front, having baby sat the tyres. And if Norris tries to go long, Max can be strategic when to pick up the pace, will be fascinating to watch.

[FittingMechanics]

So when Piastri undercuts him or half of the field does, what does Verstappen do?

[Alo_Fan]

So when Piastri undercuts him or half of the field does, what does Verstappen do?

In theory, he should be able to pick the pace up while some of the field are still out and Piastri in this case gets stuck behind them, you'd expect some of them to start on hards.

[venkyhere]

It also has to be said that 'backing up the pack in S3' to inorder to deny the Mclarens any 'gap' for them to pit into, is also detrimental for Verstappen as well, because there is no guarantee that :
- He won't accidentally end up giving DRS to the McLarens, because he has to do it over so many laps.
- Mclarens wont be able to overtake midfielder cars, even if they come out into traffic after pitting.
- That Russel / LeClerc will have the tyre life to challenge the McLarens and might be forced to pit before them.
- That having 2M, 1H for himself while the McLarens have 1M, 2H might become a problem in case the deg/graining (back/front) is high and it's a 2-stop race.
- Redbull won't screw up a pitstop, since box duration will become critical, apart from in-laps and out-laps (which are critical anyway where tyre life gets eaten away).

The 'backing up' - It's a mega risky thing to do in a track where overtaking is possible. This is not Monaco. In 2016, what allowed Hamilton to do it was because the Mercedes was leagues ahead of other cars in pace. That's not the case here. Plus the track layout was different. So many variables need to be considered - IMHO it's just easier to simply drive at full pace and not worry so much.

[venkyhere]

Max's pole lap 1:22.207 - just a tenth off his 2021 record

https://streamable.com/wzgv17

It's fascinating that the final car of previous era (smaller, lighter, better ride) and the final car of current era (wider, longer, heavier, rock hard ride) are just a tenth off each other.

[Badger]

It also has to be said that 'backing up the pack in S3' to inorder to deny the Mclarens any 'gap' for them to pit into, is also detrimental for Verstappen as well, because there is no guarantee that :
- He won't accidentally end up giving DRS to the McLarens, because he has to do it over so many laps.
- Mclarens wont be able to overtake midfielder cars, even if they come out into traffic after pitting.
- That Russel / LeClerc will have the tyre life to challenge the McLarens and might be forced to pit before them.
- That having 2M, 1H for himself while the McLarens have 1M, 2H might become a problem in case the deg/graining (back/front) is high and it's a 2-stop race.
- Redbull won't screw up a pitstop, since box duration will become critical, apart from in-laps and out-laps (which are critical anyway where tyre life gets eaten away).

The 'backing up' - It's a mega risky thing to do in a track where overtaking is possible. This is not Monaco. In 2016, what allowed Hamilton to do it was because the Mercedes was leagues ahead of other cars in pace. That's not the case here. Plus the track layout was different. So many variables need to be considered - IMHO it's just easier to simply drive at full pace and not worry so much.

The riskiest thing to do from a game theory perspective would be to let McLaren drive a normal race where they will pull away from the cars behind, even with Verstappen winning. That would essentially be betting on a first lap collision or a DNF in free air, both unlikely.

Of course slowing down must be done carefully as to not be overtaken, but you can probably do 5 tenths without too much risk, maybe a second later in the stint. Lando isn't going to lunge, Oscar might.

[FittingMechanics]

It also has to be said that 'backing up the pack in S3' to inorder to deny the Mclarens any 'gap' for them to pit into, is also detrimental for Verstappen as well, because there is no guarantee that :
- He won't accidentally end up giving DRS to the McLarens, because he has to do it over so many laps.
- Mclarens wont be able to overtake midfielder cars, even if they come out into traffic after pitting.
- That Russel / LeClerc will have the tyre life to challenge the McLarens and might be forced to pit before them.
- That having 2M, 1H for himself while the McLarens have 1M, 2H might become a problem in case the deg/graining (back/front) is high and it's a 2-stop race.
- Redbull won't screw up a pitstop, since box duration will become critical, apart from in-laps and out-laps (which are critical anyway where tyre life gets eaten away).

The 'backing up' - It's a mega risky thing to do in a track where overtaking is possible. This is not Monaco. In 2016, what allowed Hamilton to do it was because the Mercedes was leagues ahead of other cars in pace. That's not the case here. Plus the track layout was different. So many variables need to be considered - IMHO it's just easier to simply drive at full pace and not worry so much.

The riskiest thing to do from a game theory perspective would be to let McLaren drive a normal race where they will pull away from the cars behind, even with Verstappen winning. That would essentially be betting on a first lap collision or a DNF in free air, both unlikely.

Of course slowing down must be done carefully as to not be overtaken, but you can probably do 5 tenths without too much risk, maybe a second later in the stint. Lando isn't going to lunge, Oscar might.

But one mistake by Verstappen (misjudged gap) and McLaren is in the lead, who knows if Verstappen can follow and overtake them?

Maybe he does it in last 10 laps, especially if someone has new tires.

[Paa]

I don't expect any of these strategies, most of them are not realistic and too unpredictabe.
Maybe he will try to hold the pack together before the 1st pitstop or try to do something during the start to make McLarens lose positions, but nothing extreme like some posts suggest.

I'm just a bit disappointed that most likely he will lose the WDC by 5 or so points.
It was much more conforming when he was 50+ points behind. This way it is just sad. I know he already vastly overachieved, but still you have the feeling you could have grabbed 5 points more, like Spain, Austria, some sprints were not perfect, or doing some better optimizing/setup work with some races etc.

[MYsee]

I don't expect any of these strategies, most of them are not realistic and too unpredictabe.
Maybe he will try to hold the pack together before the 1st pitstop or try to do something during the start to make McLarens lose positions, but nothing extreme like some posts suggest.

I'm just a bit disappointed that most likely he will lose the WDC by 5 or so points.
It was much more conforming when he was 50+ points behind. This way it is just sad. I know he already vastly overachieved, but still you have the feeling you could have grabbed 5 points more, like Spain, Austria, some sprints were not perfect, or doing some better optimizing/setup work with some races etc.

In fairness, this is what Max needs to win. If the race is straightforward, it will be the same 1-2-3 as QF.

An unpredictable, low-probability event must occur for him to win. At the same time, we thought it was a low probability for Max to win the WDC when he was 104 pts behind, but here we are!

[Paa]

In fairness, this is what Max needs to win. If the race is straightforward, it will be the same 1-2-3 as QF.

An unpredictable, low-probability event must occur for him to win. At the same time, we thought it was a low probability for Max to win the WDC when he was 104 pts behind, but here we are!

I get that, just people look way too much into this.
Max has extremely limited tools to trigger such event. Especially if Norris is cool about not winning the race, and happy to just cruise to the podium (which I think he is). McLaren has more than enough pace to get the podium even if field is bunched together etc.

The best Max can do is to focus on himself, making sure to have a clean&fast race, maximizing his points and his part is done. Then go with the flow if any opportunity arises. He needs to be there to capitalize it, he doesn't have to be the one creating it. He is simply not in that position without going really dirty, by racing against 2 drivers and being behind in points.

[napoleon1981]

It also has to be said that 'backing up the pack in S3' to inorder to deny the Mclarens any 'gap' for them to pit into, is also detrimental for Verstappen as well, because there is no guarantee that :
- He won't accidentally end up giving DRS to the McLarens, because he has to do it over so many laps.
- Mclarens wont be able to overtake midfielder cars, even if they come out into traffic after pitting.
- That Russel / LeClerc will have the tyre life to challenge the McLarens and might be forced to pit before them.
- That having 2M, 1H for himself while the McLarens have 1M, 2H might become a problem in case the deg/graining (back/front) is high and it's a 2-stop race.
- Redbull won't screw up a pitstop, since box duration will become critical, apart from in-laps and out-laps (which are critical anyway where tyre life gets eaten away).

The 'backing up' - It's a mega risky thing to do in a track where overtaking is possible. This is not Monaco. In 2016, what allowed Hamilton to do it was because the Mercedes was leagues ahead of other cars in pace. That's not the case here. Plus the track layout was different. So many variables need to be considered - IMHO it's just easier to simply drive at full pace and not worry so much.

Pulling hard is the easy strategy to guarantee the win, not the championship. Yes by backing the field up you risk losing due to the factors above, but its exactly those factors that will make it so difficult for Mclaren, arguably even more so. Tbh they havent been crisp in difficult strategic situations, forcing those is definitely something that RB should consider. If the start is clean and 2-3 laps in we end up with verstappen 1st, lando 2nd and piastri 3rd, I think it is the thing to do right away. Once you open up a gap, it becomes much harder to do.

[venkyhere]

Guys, remember Austria 2024 ? Redbull made some final changes to the car before Q and Max got pole by 0.4s over the Mclarens. It was a shocking margin then, and Helmut Marko said "we have the set up the car for race, actually". And we saw how the car ate it's tyres and went backwards in the race. Marko has made a similar statement yesterday, after the 0.2s Q margin. It might well be a repeat case, and all the discussion we are having about what Max will do, is making a big assumption that he has similar/better race pace than the Mclarens. That well might not be the case.