2026 pecking order speculation

[r85]

When do you guys think the first "valid" information about the 2026 cars will be leaked? Like do you think it will be just when private testing starts, or do you expect some information beforehand?

It will be the paddock whispers during and after the secret testing, I expect nothing from any team before that.

[spookyisland]

It will be the paddock whispers during and after the secret testing, I expect nothing from any team before that.

I expect nothing to be leaked. Maybe we hear things about the Ferrari because the Italian media likes to hype things up, but I doubt it will be anything "useful". The first bit of relevant information should come after the private test in Barcelona on the end of January.

Yeah, makes sense. I was just wondering if there was a point at which some intel could leak regarding competitors or third party suppliers - not like in the sense of a whistleblower, but more like chatter around the F1 circus that gets out into the world and that isn't just "Mercedes seems to be on top", "Audi is a dark horse", "Newey magic" or "Red Bull is washed". But I guess I'm just impatient to see what the new season has to offer. Thank you for your replies!

[stan_french]

When do you guys think the first "valid" information about the 2026 cars will be leaked? Like do you think it will be just when private testing starts, or do you expect some information beforehand?

I did see some leaks actually from Cadillac. Their latest video has a bunch of uncensored laptimes around barcelona from their sim. a 1.16.8 was the laptime i saw. Then dubious speculation can be made as to a) how recent this is and b) what the aim of that sim day was and c) what fuel levels were "onboard".

I also saw another leak but I cant find it again, of an early Cadillac front wing design. I'm gonna go scourging the internet for that.

[chrisc90]

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/s/OwA6iGbMfd


There’s the pictures of the wings for you

[spookyisland]

I did see some leaks actually from Cadillac. Their latest video has a bunch of uncensored laptimes around barcelona from their sim. a 1.16.8 was the laptime i saw. Then dubious speculation can be made as to a) how recent this is and b) what the aim of that sim day was and c) what fuel levels were "onboard".

I also saw another leak but I cant find it again, of an early Cadillac front wing design. I'm gonna go scourging the internet for that.

Oh, thanks! I'll look into that, sounds interesting - could also be a feint for the competition, if they'd put the times in the video on purpose. Will be interesting to see how those times compare to the real testing and if one could infere under which circumstances the 1.16.8 came to be.

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/s/OwA6iGbMfd


There’s the pictures of the wings for you

Thank you!

[bauc]

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/s/OwA6iGbMfd


There’s the pictures of the wings for you

I love the 2025 vibes with this front wings

[dren]

F1 needs more horns.

[r85]

It will be the paddock whispers during and after the secret testing, I expect nothing from any team before that.

I expect nothing to be leaked. Maybe we hear things about the Ferrari because the Italian media likes to hype things up, but I doubt it will be anything "useful". The first bit of relevant information should come after the private test in Barcelona on the end of January.

Yeah, makes sense. I was just wondering if there was a point at which some intel could leak regarding competitors or third party suppliers - not like in the sense of a whistleblower, but more like chatter around the F1 circus that gets out into the world and that isn't just "Mercedes seems to be on top", "Audi is a dark horse", "Newey magic" or "Red Bull is washed". But I guess I'm just impatient to see what the new season has to offer. Thank you for your replies!

It's not impossible for any info to get leaked, but if we can't compare it then it's pretty meaningless until pre season testing settles any argument.

Even then I'd wait until the 3rd race to get a clear picture, because tracks and car characteristics have big roles.

...unless someone wins by 30s in Australia

[CHT]

Merc will most probably deliver the best PU on the grid because they are the best in the business. So my guess is Merc and Mclaren will perhaps be the top teams for 2026.

[BorisTheBlade]

The next big question for me is, what kind of info we will get at all from the closed door testing - which IMHO is laughable.
I can imagine lots of drones hovering around the track which will lead to it being declared unsafe or whatever.
Maybe they just declare it to be public on Day 2.

[the EDGE]

The next big question for me is, what kind of info we will get at all from the closed door testing - which IMHO is laughable.
I can imagine lots of drones hovering around the track which will lead to it being declared unsafe or whatever.
Maybe they just declare it to be public on Day 2.

Absolutely nothing... I expect

It's closed for a reason. January's test will be purely a PU & integration test. Expecty 1-off testing aero kits, zero performance runs & probably a whole lot of red flags

Teams will have enough to do, even without the world looking on, passing judgement

[Emag]

F1 needs more horns.

Horny cars are the best

[Emag]

I really do hope there is not a huge disparity between power units. Would be a shame to have one manufacturer come out with a performance advantage that would be insurmountable within a season like it happened in 2014. It would dull out the entire season.

If we do get a situation where certain cars are really close together, some drivers will get the chance to rise above the pack. In 2022, those first couple of races where Ferrari and RedBull were relatively equally matched, Charles and Max were a step above their respective teammates (who in turn were usually close together as well). Early 2022 battles were really fun from a spectator's perspective. Cars could follow closely too, with Saudi in particular being amazing to watch.

If 2026 can replicate that to a certain degree, then we can consider it a success.
At the moment I remain cautious about the manual overdrive + active aero stuff. Somehow, I can only see it as being either very bad (as in, it won't be enough to aid overtaking, so races will be similar to how they were pre 2011, with few overtakes), or it will be very gimmicky and make overtakes more trivial, perhaps with cars involved in battles exchanging positions multiple times during a lap depending on battery state.

The 50-50 split for PUs just doesn't seem like a good idea at all, but I will refrain from judgement until we see these cars race.

[FittingMechanics]

If Mercedes power was the best it wouldn't be as bad because there are four Mercedes powered teams and at least two capable of being top level.

Alpine
McLaren
Mercedes
Williams

But if we get Ferrari or RBPT/Ford it will be bad because customer teams are not expected to be as strong as the main one.

Worst for racing would be Audi or Honda rocket of an engine. But imagine Alonso or Hulkenberg getting a WDC.

[dren]

I expect the PUs to be closer than when Mercedes had a huge gap over the field in 2014. They are not as complex and the teams have been doing similar things on the controls side, just at a much reduced rate to what they will be next season.