2026 pecking order speculation

[WardenOfTheNorth]

Absolutely nothing... I expect

It's closed for a reason. January's test will be purely a PU & integration test. Expecty 1-off testing aero kits, zero performance runs & probably a whole lot of red flags

Teams will have enough to do, even without the world looking on, passing judgement

Regarding the goal of these tests this is absolutely my expectation as well.
But I am pretty sure, that everyone and their dog will want some "exclusive" photos of the new cars. So I expect drones as well as spy shots from Catering staff, medical staff and other trackside personnel.

The circuit is in a permanent no-fly drone zone, and anyone who's working there who is caught taking photos is gonna get sacked, for sure, so I honestly wouldn't expect much, if anything

Yep. When I've worked in season F1 filming days we're made very aware that any filming/photos are a big no, no.

Just a thought.... You can see the track from the Cafe at the Silverstone Museum.... I know at least 4 teams have shakedown runs booked prior to the Barcelona test....

[Waz]

Lots of optimism for Aston Martin, but when was the last time a team went from 7th on the grid to 1st? Even counting for Newey and boat loads of extra Wind tunnel and CFD runs, seems like huge gap to overcome. I think we needed to see more from 25.

With new regs anything is possible, look at Honda to Brawn in 2009.

Red Bull weren't very high up either in 2008. I think they were beaten by Torro Rosso into 7th or 8th. In 2009 they were fighting for the title.

I don't see AM winning the WCC, but it's entirely possible they win a few races.

[Badger]

I expect the PUs to be much closer in performance than when Mercedes had a huge gap over the field in 2014. They are not as complex and the teams have been doing similar things on the controls side, just at a much reduced rate to what they will be next season.

edited... don't know why my post quoted myself.

Pretty interesting interview with Hywel Thomas and Toto pretty much reflected the same sentiment. He said that the technological challenge of 2026 is smaller than 2014, the architecture is well known and they don't really have to invent anything new the way they did with the MGU-H. He said the biggest difference will be in terms of how it drives, and how the driver operates it. A lot of time to be found in the integration between PU, chassi, and driver.

Also noteworthy is how strongly they affirmed that HPP is a Mercedes works team project, and that customer relationships are purely commercial. I think this is an underrated part of the new regulations in terms of pecking order, with the engine freeze gone I expect some level of advantage to return to works teams the way it was pre-2022.

[peewon]

Lots of optimism for Aston Martin, but when was the last time a team went from 7th on the grid to 1st? Even counting for Newey and boat loads of extra Wind tunnel and CFD runs, seems like huge gap to overcome. I think we needed to see more from 25.

With new regs anything is possible, look at Honda to Brawn in 2009.

If you looked more into the background of what was happening back then politically between Bernie, Mosley and the big teams, it seems fairly likely that double diffuser would not have passed legality under normal circumstances. So it was an exceptional scenario.

[peewon]

I expect the PUs to be much closer in performance than when Mercedes had a huge gap over the field in 2014. They are not as complex and the teams have been doing similar things on the controls side, just at a much reduced rate to what they will be next season.

edited... don't know why my post quoted myself.

Pretty interesting interview with Hywel Thomas and Toto pretty much reflected the same sentiment. He said that the technological challenge of 2026 is smaller than 2014, the architecture is well known and they don't really have to invent anything new the way they did with the MGU-H. He said the biggest difference will be in terms of how it drives, and how the driver operates it. A lot of time to be found in the integration between PU, chassi, and driver.

Also noteworthy is how strongly they affirmed that HPP is a Mercedes works team project, and that customer relationships are purely commercial. I think this is an underrated part of the new regulations in terms of pecking order, with the engine freeze gone I expect some level of advantage to return to works teams the way it was pre-2022.

Maybe the ICE component may not vary much in peak performance but reliability may still be a factor at the start of regs. Also, the limiting factor seems to be running out of battery on the straights so whoever can regen most efficiently will be able to dominate. I fully expect PU advantage to be the deciding factor in '26 and maybe even '27 at least.

[dren]

Like badger mentioned, the biggest difference will be in terms of how it drives and how the driver operates it. I think that will be a huge factor.

[FittingMechanics]

Like badger mentioned, the biggest difference will be in terms of how it drives and how the driver operates it. I think that will be a huge factor.

What may be interesting is if teammates are used to slow down people, theoretically you could slow down a lot in a twisty part and then use all your energy in the straights becoming hard or impossible to overtake.

Also it may allow drivers to jump ahead of other car if they have more pace, by having more pace you will be able to save more energy and thus use it tactically to overtake when needed.

I've watched both Hywel Thomas with Toto and the interview with the Red Bull Power Trains guy. Interesting stuff. RBPT guy said one of major differences may be the turbo lag, especially at the start of the race. He thinks there may be visible differences in coming off the line because of it (depending on power train and on the skill level).

Both also talked about new sustainable fuel that may be a difference maker as well. Also a big part will be energy efficiency as being more efficient will allow you more use per lap.

[peewon]

The fact that FIA made special provisions to allow the PU manufacturers who fall behind to catch up tells you everything you need to know about what they are expecting. I think its quite telling.

[Badger]

The fact that FIA made special provisions to allow the PU manufacturers who fall behind to catch up tells you everything you need to know about what they are expecting. I think its quite telling.

I think you have it the wrong way around. It tells us they were very conscious of competitive outcomes when they were designing the PU ruleset from the beginning, not that they became worried in hindsight. From the scrapping of the MGU-H, to more proscriptive design parameters, to sticking to the same basic architecture, to the introduction of the PU cost cap, to the "Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities". From the first pen stroke it was designed to minimise the risk of huge and lasting discrepancies à la 2014.

[bauc]

The fact that FIA made special provisions to allow the PU manufacturers who fall behind to catch up tells you everything you need to know about what they are expecting. I think its quite telling.

This and the fact they scheduled a private test, two BIG RED FLAGS, meaning people and the sport in general is not ready, so they are already thinking of ways to rectify what is/will be at the start and maybe through the whole next season.

[pantherxxx]

I think the 2026 regulations are going to create a bigger gap between Factory Teams (like Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull) and Customer Teams (like Williams, Haas, and McLaren) than we've seen since 2014. It's not just about power; it's about integration and control.

The single biggest technical hurdle of 2026 is the coordination of Active Aerodynamics with the Energy Recovery System (ERS). This is where a split works/customer structure completely falls apart.

The 2026 cars will have moveable front and rear wings (X-Mode for low drag) to compensate for the smaller, less powerful Internal Combustion Engine. The car must run in low-drag X-Mode on straights to save energy and ensure the battery can recharge.

The Works Team Solution (e.g., Red Bull). The chassis team and the engine team work together from Day 1 to write a unified control software. This software dictates the exact moment the wing shifts and how the electrical power (350kW MGU-K) is deployed to align perfectly with the car's unique aerodynamic characteristics. This ensures peak efficiency and prevents running out of charge mid-straight.

The Customer Team Constraint (e.g., McLaren): McLaren buys the Mercedes ECU software, which controls the ERS deployment strategy. They then have to design their chassis and active aero around the engine's pre-programmed strategy. They cannot write code to make the engine's power delivery perfectly match their unique wing profile, forcing a sub-optimal compromise on both the aero side and the energy management side. The most critical system on the car is designed by their competitor. Even with McLaren’s “seat at the table” and “early involvement” language in the contract, Mercedes has zero incentive to give them the full picture — and every incentive to keep the really valuable integration IP locked away.

Owning the full integration loop will be more important in 2026 than at any point since the sport went to turbo-hybrids in 2014 — and probably since the late 1990s works-team era.

[peewon]

The fact that FIA made special provisions to allow the PU manufacturers who fall behind to catch up tells you everything you need to know about what they are expecting. I think its quite telling.

I think you have it the wrong way around. It tells us they were very conscious of competitive outcomes when they were designing the PU ruleset from the beginning, not that they became worried in hindsight. From the scrapping of the MGU-H, to more proscriptive design parameters, to sticking to the same basic architecture, to the introduction of the PU cost cap, to the "Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities". From the first pen stroke it was designed to minimise the risk of huge and lasting discrepancies à la 2014.

I would humbly disagree. The "Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities" were brought in at the 11th hour so it can hardly be held up as evidence of great foresight. In fact, Im quite sure they did this when some more definitive PU data was came to them and it didnt look good.

[Badger]

The fact that FIA made special provisions to allow the PU manufacturers who fall behind to catch up tells you everything you need to know about what they are expecting. I think its quite telling.

I think you have it the wrong way around. It tells us they were very conscious of competitive outcomes when they were designing the PU ruleset from the beginning, not that they became worried in hindsight. From the scrapping of the MGU-H, to more proscriptive design parameters, to sticking to the same basic architecture, to the introduction of the PU cost cap, to the "Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities". From the first pen stroke it was designed to minimise the risk of huge and lasting discrepancies à la 2014.

I would humbly disagree. The "Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities" were brought in at the 11th hour so it can hardly be held up as evidence of great foresight. In fact, Im quite sure they did this when some more definitive PU data was came to them and it didnt look good.

Well humbly inform yourself. ADUO has been in the PU regulations since the first issue was released in August 2022.

[peewon]

Well humbly inform yourself. ADUO has been in the PU regulations since the first issue was released in August 2022.

Well Ive only seen it has as a recent introduction:

Digging into the technical regulations (the latest release, dated July 31, is the 13th in the series), one section focuses specifically on power units and introduces a notable acronym: ADUO, which stands for Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities.

https://scuderiafans.com/additional-dev ... s-in-2026/

https://www.planetf1.com/news/fia-intro ... uo-f1-2026

[Badger]

Well humbly inform yourself. ADUO has been in the PU regulations since the first issue was released in August 2022.

Well Ive only seen it has as a recent introduction:

Digging into the technical regulations (the latest release, dated July 31, is the 13th in the series), one section focuses specifically on power units and introduces a notable acronym: ADUO, which stands for Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities.

https://scuderiafans.com/additional-dev ... s-in-2026/

https://www.planetf1.com/news/fia-intro ... uo-f1-2026

Just look at the regulations instead of sourcing bad information from clickbait websites. Actually, let me do it for you so we can put this nonsense to bed.

ADUO has been there from the start. Your initial point has no merit.