2026 pecking order speculation

[Badger]

McLaren isn’t really a customer team and won’t have an higher risk of issues with the aero integration. They have an exclusive deal that allows them to be involved with and influence the engine design. It’s the exact same treatment the Mercedes factory team gets, so by all intents and purposes they are a factory team. Mercedes (or any other factory team) doesn’t have any additional advantages over them on this front.

HPP can design one engine that gives full factory benefits to two different teams? How does one serve two masters?

As long as Mercedes has a factory team in the sport HPP's purpose will be to win with that team.

I believe this factory advantage is overblown. This is the age of engines that are much smaller than the bodywork that covers them, most of engines have plenty of room under the cover and the bodywork is used to help with the aero. This is not the age when the engines were big so if you wanted to pursue a certain aero direction you needed to adapt the engine to it.

McLaren may have to accept general layout of Mercedes engine but this is not the penalty it used to be. McLaren also build their own gearbox and suspensions so they have more freedom than if they just accepted Mercedes built ones.

I guess we will see, but I just don't think it is a factor it used to be.

In addition, 2026 cars were not supposed to have been developed earlier than mid 2025. So legally, Mercedes couldn't really push their engine department toward a specific aero design they have. Even if they did, they couldn't have large amount of data to base this on as they couldn't run simulations or use wind tunnels for 2026 cars before that moment (and engines need more time than that to design). So 2026 should be even less of an advantage for Mercedes as they probably started to work on the car on the same day as McLaren and they both got the packaging information at that time.

My thoughts on the matter (I am a McLaren fan so not objective) is that it seems that McLaren realized their advantage very early on and predicted an easy WDC/WCC for McLaren, they switched development as early as possible to 2026. If true this is a plus for McLaren. Their correlation in last 3 years was perfect, all updates worked well and the car was improving faster than most other cars. If this holds, this is another good point for 2026.

But it's always hard to stay at the top. Realistically speaking someone else will probably get there, it could easily be Mercedes or Ferrari. Red Bull I would be surprised if they stay at the top, I think they sacrificed 2026 development to keep Max happy and to win political games, engine is a big question mark, their correlation wasn't very good and they struggled to understand their car. This makes me feel it's unlikely they get it right in 2026.

Not really sure what you are talking about, every year since 2014 the engine and cooling packaging has played a factor in car performance. Every year people are looking out for who has the neatest packaging. I don't see that changing, especially when you have a smaller form factor car to put it all in. Being the one who decides where to put the weight and volume is an advantage. Also setting the cooling requirements and being the one who tests the cooling first hand.

And the physical integration is only one aspect, there's also the software side. Driveability will be more important than ever with these PUs so seamless integration between your engine, chassi, and driver is bound to count for something on track. Customers are not completely out of the loop in this regard but they aren’t in full control either.

2026 cars began development on Jan 1 2025... officially. But we don't seriously think that HPP, RBPT, Ferrari were all designing their engines in a vacuum with no input from the chassi side until 12 months ago? That would be quite naive to believe IMO. You can't exactly prevent people from meeting and talking, even if it's "informal" officially. Their interests are aligned.

[ME4ME]

Voted Mclaren. I think they'll win it again in 2026. They now have a good group of people, nice new wind tunnel. Rob Marshal will make sure everything is nicely integrated and reliable.

My guess is that the order will be pretty predictable, with Mclaren fighting Mercedes.
Followed at some distance by a group of Red Bull, Aston Martin, Ferrari and Williams.

RB, Haas, Alpine further behind.
Audi somewhat off that.
Cadilac a further second of that.

[euv2]

HPP can design one engine that gives full factory benefits to two different teams? How does one serve two masters?

As long as Mercedes has a factory team in the sport HPP's purpose will be to win with that team.

I believe this factory advantage is overblown. This is the age of engines that are much smaller than the bodywork that covers them, most of engines have plenty of room under the cover and the bodywork is used to help with the aero. This is not the age when the engines were big so if you wanted to pursue a certain aero direction you needed to adapt the engine to it.

McLaren may have to accept general layout of Mercedes engine but this is not the penalty it used to be. McLaren also build their own gearbox and suspensions so they have more freedom than if they just accepted Mercedes built ones.

I guess we will see, but I just don't think it is a factor it used to be.

In addition, 2026 cars were not supposed to have been developed earlier than mid 2025. So legally, Mercedes couldn't really push their engine department toward a specific aero design they have. Even if they did, they couldn't have large amount of data to base this on as they couldn't run simulations or use wind tunnels for 2026 cars before that moment (and engines need more time than that to design). So 2026 should be even less of an advantage for Mercedes as they probably started to work on the car on the same day as McLaren and they both got the packaging information at that time.

My thoughts on the matter (I am a McLaren fan so not objective) is that it seems that McLaren realized their advantage very early on and predicted an easy WDC/WCC for McLaren, they switched development as early as possible to 2026. If true this is a plus for McLaren. Their correlation in last 3 years was perfect, all updates worked well and the car was improving faster than most other cars. If this holds, this is another good point for 2026.

But it's always hard to stay at the top. Realistically speaking someone else will probably get there, it could easily be Mercedes or Ferrari. Red Bull I would be surprised if they stay at the top, I think they sacrificed 2026 development to keep Max happy and to win political games, engine is a big question mark, their correlation wasn't very good and they struggled to understand their car. This makes me feel it's unlikely they get it right in 2026.

Not really sure what you are talking about, every year since 2014 the engine and cooling packaging has played a factor in car performance. Every year people are looking out for who has the neatest packaging. I don't see that changing, especially when you have a smaller form factor car to put it all in. Being the one who decides where to put the weight and volume is an advantage. Also setting the cooling requirements and being the one who tests the cooling first hand.

And the physical integration is only one aspect, there's also the software side. Driveability will be more important than ever with these PUs so seamless integration between your engine, chassi, and driver is bound to count for something on track. Customers are not completely out of the loop in this regard but they aren’t in full control either.

2026 cars began development on Jan 1 2025... officially. But we don't seriously think that HPP, RBPT, Ferrari were all designing their engines in a vacuum with no input from the chassi side until 12 months ago? That would be quite naive to believe IMO. You can't exactly prevent people from meeting and talking, even if it's "informal" officially. Their interests are aligned.

Also, the wheelbase has been shortened, the cars are also a bit narrower, so tight packaging will be a big factor. MCL had a very strong cooling package last season, and nobody really knows the actual reason behind it, so there's a chance that MCL will be strong with cooling side of it, but with the rest of the chassis and PU integration they should be starting on the backfoot compared to MERC.

[Badger]

Also, the wheelbase has been shortened, the cars are also a bit narrower, so tight packaging will be a big factor. MCL had a very strong cooling package last season, and nobody really knows the actual reason behind it, so there's a chance that MCL will be strong with cooling side of it, but with the rest of the chassis and PU integration they should be starting on the backfoot compared to MERC.

Well one reason is that they had 4 seasons of stable rules and frozen engines to optimise their cooling. They obviously do have a very good fundamental understanding of cooling, and that will not be lost because the rules change, but the optimisation will be reset and I think Mercedes as the factory team should be one step ahead in that regard. If you recall McLaren's cooling package was nothing to write him about in 2022 and 2023, it was both bulky and draggy.

I have them top 2 as I think the Mercedes engine should be the class of the field and they should be competent on the chassi side, but I do put the factory team ahead. For me there are some question marks around the customer status and also their ability to be as competitive in a non ground effect regulation set. I perceive that much of their advantage came from their ability to strike a better compromise than other teams on ride height and suspension stiffness (basically they could run higher and softer in the slow and medium speed), this is what gave the car its versatility on all tracks and tyre life. I don't think those advantages will translate to 2026 where the ride height should be naturally higher and the suspension naturally softer.

[Bill]

Mercedes had a 5 year headstart and kers experience. Honda didn't have all of that yet they overtook them and ended the 2025 season as the benchmark pu.so all talk of Mercedes having best pu is based on what?,or is it just a chest pumping exercise to make European fill good about themselves. When honda blew everyone on the straights they called it triple drs to cover over the shame.

[Badger]

Mercedes had a 5 year headstart and kers experience. Honda didn't have all of that yet they overtook them and ended the 2025 season as the benchmark pu.so all talk of Mercedes having best pu is based on what?,or is it just a chest pumping exercise to make European fill good about themselves. When honda blew everyone on the straights they called it triple drs to cover over the shame.

Don't know anyone except you who thinks Honda was the benchmark. The power and reliability were competitive but marginally behind Mercedes. As for why people are a bit skeptical of Honda for 2026, I think it mainly comes down to the fact that they started late. The announcement to rejoin came in mid 2023, and it's known they had dismantled parts of their F1 group before deciding to join again. They should be decent but I am expecting them to drop back a bit compared to where they've been for the last few years, at least for 2026.

[ME4ME]

I perceive that much of their advantage came from their ability to strike a better compromise than other teams on ride height and suspension stiffness (basically they could run higher and softer in the slow and medium speed), this is what gave the car its versatility on all tracks and tyre life. I don't think those advantages will translate to 2026 where the ride height should be naturally higher and the suspension naturally softer.

I'd reason that you don't luck into such ability though. Such ability is only because of the engineers desiging and developing it better than others did. So from that point, yes the objective will be different but the people, they'll be the same.

Obviously that also goes for Mercedes, but they where the team needing to back-track their new suspension mid-season. Optimistically one can argue you learn the most from your failures. But yeah that's about it I think.

[Bill]

Mercedes had a 5 year headstart and kers experience. Honda didn't have all of that yet they overtook them and ended the 2025 season as the benchmark pu.so all talk of Mercedes having best pu is based on what?,or is it just a chest pumping exercise to make European fill good about themselves. When honda blew everyone on the straights they called it triple drs to cover over the shame.

Don't know anyone except you who thinks Honda was the benchmark. The power and reliability were competitive but marginally behind Mercedes. As for why people are a bit skeptical of Honda for 2026, I think it mainly comes down to the fact that they started late. The announcement to rejoin came in mid 2023, and it's known they had dismantled parts of their F1 group before deciding to join again. They should be decent but I am expecting them to drop back a bit compared to where they've been for the last few years, at least for 2026.

People with data says honda was the benchmark
https://lastwordonsports.com/motorsport ... s-engines/

[Badger]

Mercedes had a 5 year headstart and kers experience. Honda didn't have all of that yet they overtook them and ended the 2025 season as the benchmark pu.so all talk of Mercedes having best pu is based on what?,or is it just a chest pumping exercise to make European fill good about themselves. When honda blew everyone on the straights they called it triple drs to cover over the shame.

Don't know anyone except you who thinks Honda was the benchmark. The power and reliability were competitive but marginally behind Mercedes. As for why people are a bit skeptical of Honda for 2026, I think it mainly comes down to the fact that they started late. The announcement to rejoin came in mid 2023, and it's known they had dismantled parts of their F1 group before deciding to join again. They should be decent but I am expecting them to drop back a bit compared to where they've been for the last few years, at least for 2026.

People with data says honda was the benchmark
https://lastwordonsports.com/motorsport ... s-engines/

You mean the guy trying to downplay narratives about Merc being the best? My only read from that article is that Vowles seems content with where Merc is at and he doesn't want any rule changes. As for Honda they were never THE benchmark, they got close but never surpassed.

[Bill]

Don't know anyone except you who thinks Honda was the benchmark. The power and reliability were competitive but marginally behind Mercedes. As for why people are a bit skeptical of Honda for 2026, I think it mainly comes down to the fact that they started late. The announcement to rejoin came in mid 2023, and it's known they had dismantled parts of their F1 group before deciding to join again. They should be decent but I am expecting them to drop back a bit compared to where they've been for the last few years, at least for 2026.

People with data says honda was the benchmark
https://lastwordonsports.com/motorsport ... s-engines/

You mean the guy trying to downplay narratives about Merc being the best? My only read from that article is that Vowles seems content with where Merc is at and he doesn't want any rule changes. As for Honda they were never THE benchmark, they got close but never surpassed.

They dethroned mercedes and won four championships in a row .they could have won the fifth one is Max head was not down his ass.the echochamber on merc superiority is getting tedious no one knows what's going to happen until the cars start running in February. The lazy media is acting like merc marketing team,they are not breaking any inside info on different manufacturers just same story same narrative recycled over and over again.

[Badger]

People with data says honda was the benchmark
https://lastwordonsports.com/motorsport ... s-engines/

You mean the guy trying to downplay narratives about Merc being the best? My only read from that article is that Vowles seems content with where Merc is at and he doesn't want any rule changes. As for Honda they were never THE benchmark, they got close but never surpassed.

They dethroned mercedes and won four championships in a row .they could have won the fifth one is Max head was not down his ass.the echochamber on merc superiority is getting tedious no one knows what's going to happen until the cars start running in February. The lazy media is acting like merc marketing team,they are not breaking any inside info on different manufacturers just same story same narrative recycled over and over again.

I think your confidence is misplaced. Last time Honda made a late decision to join they created what is perhaps the worst engine in F1 history, the Honda RA615H "GP2". This time around they've made yet another late decision to join, losing them valuable development time. It shouldn't be anywhere near as bad as 2015 given all the legacy development from the previous era but I don't see them being as good as Mercedes or Ferrari in 2026. Let's hope for their sake they don't end up behind RBPT, that would be embarrassing to put it mildly.

[DChemTech]

You mean the guy trying to downplay narratives about Merc being the best? My only read from that article is that Vowles seems content with where Merc is at and he doesn't want any rule changes. As for Honda they were never THE benchmark, they got close but never surpassed.

They dethroned mercedes and won four championships in a row .they could have won the fifth one is Max head was not down his ass.the echochamber on merc superiority is getting tedious no one knows what's going to happen until the cars start running in February. The lazy media is acting like merc marketing team,they are not breaking any inside info on different manufacturers just same story same narrative recycled over and over again.

I think your confidence is misplaced. Last time Honda made a late decision to join they created what is perhaps the worst engine in F1 history, the Honda RA615H "GP2". This time around they've made yet another late decision to join, losing them valuable development time. It shouldn't be anywhere near as bad as 2015 given all the legacy development from the previous era but I don't see them being as good as Mercedes or Ferrari in 2026. Let's hope for their sake they don't end up behind RBPT, that would be embarrassing to put it mildly.

There were probably a few slightly worse engines. The W12 comes to mind

[Badger]

They dethroned mercedes and won four championships in a row .they could have won the fifth one is Max head was not down his ass.the echochamber on merc superiority is getting tedious no one knows what's going to happen until the cars start running in February. The lazy media is acting like merc marketing team,they are not breaking any inside info on different manufacturers just same story same narrative recycled over and over again.

I think your confidence is misplaced. Last time Honda made a late decision to join they created what is perhaps the worst engine in F1 history, the Honda RA615H "GP2". This time around they've made yet another late decision to join, losing them valuable development time. It shouldn't be anywhere near as bad as 2015 given all the legacy development from the previous era but I don't see them being as good as Mercedes or Ferrari in 2026. Let's hope for their sake they don't end up behind RBPT, that would be embarrassing to put it mildly.

There were probably a few slightly worse engines. The W12 comes to mind

Sure, but that engine was probably built by a couple of guys in a garage. In terms of large manufacturer efforts I can't think of a failure greater than the "GP2".

[PlatinumZealot]

The real question is what is more relevant here? Learnings from the ground effect era? Or learnings from 2021?

One could argue that the ground-effect era spured the debelopment of even more precise aerodynamic and suspension tools and the teams that managed to build the fastest cars got on top of that and as such will have an advantage in the new era even if they start off with weaker aerodynamics (they will be able to fix their mistakes much quicker).

The other argument is that the ultra-fine detail attention to ground effect flow structures are no longer needed, and the teams who have the flat bottom mastery from 2021 will able to fall back on that data and get off to a quicker start.

It's really hard to say at this point.

[PlatinumZealot]

Mercedes had a 5 year headstart and kers experience. Honda didn't have all of that yet they overtook them and ended the 2025 season as the benchmark pu.so all talk of Mercedes having best pu is based on what?,or is it just a chest pumping exercise to make European fill good about themselves. When honda blew everyone on the straights they called it triple drs to cover over the shame.

Don't know anyone except you who thinks Honda was the benchmark. The power and reliability were competitive but marginally behind Mercedes. As for why people are a bit skeptical of Honda for 2026, I think it mainly comes down to the fact that they started late. The announcement to rejoin came in mid 2023, and it's known they had dismantled parts of their F1 group before deciding to join again. They should be decent but I am expecting them to drop back a bit compared to where they've been for the last few years, at least for 2026.

People with data says honda was the benchmark
https://lastwordonsports.com/motorsport ... s-engines/

The usual smoke and mirrors by Mercedes. We saw what happened in Baku... Mercedes powered cars dominated.