2026 pecking order speculation

[Badger]

Worries around AMR and Honda. Looks like The Race has been digging around in this thread looking for narratives.
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/worr ... tin-honda/

Basically hits on most of the things I’ve said in here. Honda started late, they dismantled their previous engine group, they have previous form failing under similar circumstances, the shake-up at the top of the organisation before the end of the season is a bad sign.

Additional points made in the article: more constraints on spending than their previous programme, missed a trick with the compression ratio, rumours that they are behind on the electrical side, wide geographical spread between team, engine, and fuel suppliers, and Aramco have not supplied F1 fuel before.

Some points I agree with, others are overstated. What I will say is they are vastly overrated in this poll.

Looks like plain gpt slop and a low effort article to me.

But it isn't, and so all of those things are not just a threat: they are Honda's reality.

Nothing of substance and the general stuff we all know already, eg. Honda not exploiting the compression ratio, nothing new there. Main performance differentiator is still going to be the aero and the electrical stuff. The Ice is largely carryover from the current ones, so their later entry shouldnt be a topic. No, the circumstances are not comparable to their previous entry at all.

The guy knows there is lots of hype around the team and tries to shock/generate a headline, which is ok but nothing of value.

I think there is a lot of substance in the article, where people will disagree is how much of an impact it will have on the final product, that we will only know in due time.

Personally I think the hype is undeserved. I am not expecting Honda to produce the best engine for many of the reasons listed in the article, they won't be miles behind but a few HP on the ICE could matter a lot. Likewise I am not expecting any miracles from Newey in his first year, and needless to say the drivers are not up to par for the expectations that are being placed on the team. Relative to the expectations in this poll where they are tied 2nd with McLaren I think Aston will be the biggest flop on the grid.

[Bill]

I like how they are really trying to make this CR thing a make or break issue for the teams.

The compression ratio were reduced from 18 to 16 in order to help new team .the removal of mguh too.so if fia allow merc to circumvent the regulations then it's step in the wrong direction and unfair to Ferrari and honda who made a sacrifice for sake of the sport. The sporting regulation are clear the car has to comply with technical regulations all the time so they is not loophole to speak off even if metal expands. i think it should be expected that a pu is built in a way that it compensate for that expansion such that it never exceeds the limit.

[AR3-GP]

I like how they are really trying to make this CR thing a make or break issue for the teams.

The compression ratio were reduced from 18 to 16 in order to help new team .the removal of mguh too.so if fia allow merc to circumvent the regulations then it's step in the wrong direction and unfair to Ferrari and honda who made a sacrifice for sake of the sport. The sporting regulation are clear the car has to comply with technical regulations all the time so they is not loophole to speak off even if metal expands. i think it should be expected that a pu is built in a way that it compensate for that expansion such that it never exceeds the limit.

https://www.f1technical.net/forum/viewt ... 8#p1316058

[madridista]

Looks like plain gpt slop and a low effort article to me.

But it isn't, and so all of those things are not just a threat: they are Honda's reality.

Nothing of substance and the general stuff we all know already, eg. Honda not exploiting the compression ratio, nothing new there. Main performance differentiator is still going to be the aero and the electrical stuff. The Ice is largely carryover from the current ones, so their later entry shouldnt be a topic. No, the circumstances are not comparable to their previous entry at all.

The guy knows there is lots of hype around the team and tries to shock/generate a headline, which is ok but nothing of value.

...needless to say the drivers are not up to par for the expectations that are being placed on the team.

I agree on that for Stroll, based on what metric did you determine that for alonso?
The team principals disagree and rate him a top 5 driver for 25. That is, while he was driving a car that finished 7th in the constructors.

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... hnaiv9k7KI

Relative to the expectations in this poll where they are tied 2nd with McLaren I think Aston will be the biggest flop on the grid.

Yes, i think i remember your prediction. You placed them 9th ahead of cadillac and audi. Bold to say the least, lets see how that turns out.

[Badger]

Looks like plain gpt slop and a low effort article to me.



Nothing of substance and the general stuff we all know already, eg. Honda not exploiting the compression ratio, nothing new there. Main performance differentiator is still going to be the aero and the electrical stuff. The Ice is largely carryover from the current ones, so their later entry shouldnt be a topic. No, the circumstances are not comparable to their previous entry at all.

The guy knows there is lots of hype around the team and tries to shock/generate a headline, which is ok but nothing of value.

...needless to say the drivers are not up to par for the expectations that are being placed on the team.

I agree on that for Stroll, based on what metric did you determine that for alonso?
The team principals disagree and rate him a top 5 driver for 25. That is, while he was driving a car that finished 7th in the constructors.

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... hnaiv9k7KI

Relative to the expectations in this poll where they are tied 2nd with McLaren I think Aston will be the biggest flop on the grid.

Yes, i think i remember your prediction. You placed them 9th ahead of cadillac and audi. Bold to say the least, lets see how that turns out.

Alonso is still capable of performing well if the car is there but to expect him to have the consistency and speed across the whole year to win at this age is a bit delusional to me. Sitting next to Stroll at AMR is perhaps the most flattering seat on the grid because expectations are relatively low and Stroll is easy pickings. We remember the good and forget the bad. Winning a championship is a different ballgame and I haven’t seen that level from Alonso in a long time, I don’t think it’s still there in his mid 40s.

[Ashwinv16]

Here's My Full 2026 Prediction Engines Wise Pecking order (i won't do Aero(team based) until the second test especially after what Ferrari did in 2019 and gave me falls hope)

• 1 - Mercedes - The compression trick is great and all but rumors is that it increases weight but due to the batteries every team could be overweight anyways so it might!? be negligible leaving them with more power based on simulations?! but reliability is a major issue with these i guess especially after the Alpine news. Battery systems not talked about much but mercs always been great since 2009 so wouldn't count on their battery system to have issues

• 2 - Ferrari - Steel heads mean a more variable option is in the works although many on the internet aren't noticing it. Basically at higher revs the engine will produce more power and well reliability as well. Almost every time there is a new regulation Ferrari always has turned up with the second best engine (you can go as far back as 1989(well 1995 for reliable comparison as 1989 is a point of contention). but like 1989 and 2014 weight could be an issue

• 3 - Ford - If they get half of what Mercedes achieves they will be the third best or it's 5th for them, a lot of stuff battery wise will be similar to the Honda due to their collaboration and powertrain buyouts without the indycar and lmdh know how's so honestly drivabitly is gonna be an issue i guess....

• 4 - Honda - Honda has said it' not doing well based of benchmarks in comparison to the compression trick simulation, and as far as I am aware they will be 15hp down regardless but their battery system will maintain an advantage from 2022 era along with some additional tech from their IndyCar ultracapacitors and yeh bosch systems used in lmdh in IMSA(the very reason Cadillac is joining as they found similarities between the techs and Honda comeback) that they are trying to benchmark and replicate closely in their batteries for efficiency and power delivery. You won't see the benefits in quali but it might be a lethal combo in the race despite regulation restricting energy usage AND FINALLY likely to be the only engine lower than the weight target (could struggle in Quali sensitive tracks or tracks with massive braking zones namely Monza during quali)

• 5 - Audi - I mean new engine supplier and with their only hybrid racing experience being in dakar recently don't see much from them for now but you never know although just engine wise without the batteries, i think they might be better of than the Honda

Importantly the gap between the engines will be 20hp at max. However the ability to deploy continuously is where the money is at and my bet is on Honda but deploying mean nothing if its underpowered and overweight.

[Cassius]

Here's My Full 2026 Prediction Engines Wise Pecking order (i won't do Aero(team based) until the second test especially after what Ferrari did in 2019 and gave me falls hope)

• 1 - Mercedes - The compression trick is great and all but rumors is that it increases weight but due to the batteries every team could be overweight anyways so it might!? be negligible leaving them with more power based on simulations?! but reliability is a major issue with these i guess especially after the Alpine news. Battery systems not talked about much but mercs always been great since 2009 so wouldn't count on their battery system to have issues

• 2 - Ferrari - Steel heads mean a more variable option is in the works although many on the internet aren't noticing it. Basically at higher revs the engine will produce more power and well reliability as well. Almost every time there is a new regulation Ferrari always has turned up with the second best engine (you can go as far back as 1989(well 1995 for reliable comparison as 1989 is a point of contention). but like 1989 and 2014 weight could be an issue

• 3 - Ford - If they get half of what Mercedes achieves they will be the third best or it's 5th for them, a lot of stuff battery wise will be similar to the Honda due to their collaboration and powertrain buyouts without the indycar and lmdh know how's so honestly drivabitly is gonna be an issue i guess....

• 4 - Honda - Honda has said it' not doing well based of benchmarks in comparison to the compression trick simulation, and as far as I am aware they will be 15hp down regardless but their battery system will maintain an advantage from 2022 era along with some additional tech from their IndyCar ultracapacitors and yeh bosch systems used in lmdh in IMSA(the very reason Cadillac is joining as they found similarities between the techs and Honda comeback) that they are trying to benchmark and replicate closely in their batteries for efficiency and power delivery. You won't see the benefits in quali but it might be a lethal combo in the race despite regulation restricting energy usage AND FINALLY likely to be the only engine lower than the weight target (could struggle in Quali sensitive tracks or tracks with massive braking zones namely Monza during quali)

• 5 - Audi - I mean new engine supplier and with their only hybrid racing experience being in dakar recently don't see much from them for now but you never know although just engine wise without the batteries, i think they might be better of than the Honda

Importantly the gap between the engines will be 20hp at max. However the ability to deploy continuously is where the money is at and my bet is on Honda but deploying mean nothing if its underpowered and overweight.

What Alpine news are you referring to?

[chrisc90]

What Alpine news are you referring to?

Cancelled shakedown day because of PU issues

[JRodrigues]

• 5 - Audi - I mean new engine supplier and with their only hybrid racing experience being in dakar recently don't see much from them for now but you never know although just engine wise without the batteries, i think they might be better of than the Honda

Audi has plenty of hybrid experience from endurance (since 2012)

[Ashwinv16]

Here's My Full 2026 Prediction Engines Wise Pecking order (i won't do Aero(team based) until the second test especially after what Ferrari did in 2019 and gave me falls hope)

• 1 - Mercedes - The compression trick is great and all but rumors is that it increases weight but due to the batteries every team could be overweight anyways so it might!? be negligible leaving them with more power based on simulations?! but reliability is a major issue with these i guess especially after the Alpine news. Battery systems not talked about much but mercs always been great since 2009 so wouldn't count on their battery system to have issues

• 2 - Ferrari - Steel heads mean a more variable option is in the works although many on the internet aren't noticing it. Basically at higher revs the engine will produce more power and well reliability as well. Almost every time there is a new regulation Ferrari always has turned up with the second best engine (you can go as far back as 1989(well 1995 for reliable comparison as 1989 is a point of contention). but like 1989 and 2014 weight could be an issue

• 3 - Ford - If they get half of what Mercedes achieves they will be the third best or it's 5th for them, a lot of stuff battery wise will be similar to the Honda due to their collaboration and powertrain buyouts without the indycar and lmdh know how's so honestly drivabitly is gonna be an issue i guess....

• 4 - Honda - Honda has said it' not doing well based of benchmarks in comparison to the compression trick simulation, and as far as I am aware they will be 15hp down regardless but their battery system will maintain an advantage from 2022 era along with some additional tech from their IndyCar ultracapacitors and yeh bosch systems used in lmdh in IMSA(the very reason Cadillac is joining as they found similarities between the techs and Honda comeback) that they are trying to benchmark and replicate closely in their batteries for efficiency and power delivery. You won't see the benefits in quali but it might be a lethal combo in the race despite regulation restricting energy usage AND FINALLY likely to be the only engine lower than the weight target (could struggle in Quali sensitive tracks or tracks with massive braking zones namely Monza during quali)

• 5 - Audi - I mean new engine supplier and with their only hybrid racing experience being in dakar recently don't see much from them for now but you never know although just engine wise without the batteries, i think they might be better of than the Honda

Importantly the gap between the engines will be 20hp at max. However the ability to deploy continuously is where the money is at and my bet is on Honda but deploying mean nothing if its underpowered and overweight.

• 5 - Audi - I mean new engine supplier and with their only hybrid racing experience being in dakar recently don't see much from them for now but you never know although just engine wise without the batteries, i think they might be better of than the Honda

Audi has plenty of hybrid experience from endurance (since 2012)

I meant recently.

[DoctorRadio]

Here's My Full 2026 Prediction Engines Wise Pecking order (i won't do Aero(team based) until the second test especially after what Ferrari did in 2019 and gave me falls hope)

• 1 - Mercedes - The compression trick is great and all but rumors is that it increases weight but due to the batteries every team could be overweight anyways so it might!? be negligible leaving them with more power based on simulations?! but reliability is a major issue with these i guess especially after the Alpine news. Battery systems not talked about much but mercs always been great since 2009 so wouldn't count on their battery system to have issues

• 2 - Ferrari - Steel heads mean a more variable option is in the works although many on the internet aren't noticing it. Basically at higher revs the engine will produce more power and well reliability as well. Almost every time there is a new regulation Ferrari always has turned up with the second best engine (you can go as far back as 1989(well 1995 for reliable comparison as 1989 is a point of contention). but like 1989 and 2014 weight could be an issue

• 3 - Ford - If they get half of what Mercedes achieves they will be the third best or it's 5th for them, a lot of stuff battery wise will be similar to the Honda due to their collaboration and powertrain buyouts without the indycar and lmdh know how's so honestly drivabitly is gonna be an issue i guess....

• 4 - Honda - Honda has said it' not doing well based of benchmarks in comparison to the compression trick simulation, and as far as I am aware they will be 15hp down regardless but their battery system will maintain an advantage from 2022 era along with some additional tech from their IndyCar ultracapacitors and yeh bosch systems used in lmdh in IMSA(the very reason Cadillac is joining as they found similarities between the techs and Honda comeback) that they are trying to benchmark and replicate closely in their batteries for efficiency and power delivery. You won't see the benefits in quali but it might be a lethal combo in the race despite regulation restricting energy usage AND FINALLY likely to be the only engine lower than the weight target (could struggle in Quali sensitive tracks or tracks with massive braking zones namely Monza during quali)

• 5 - Audi - I mean new engine supplier and with their only hybrid racing experience being in dakar recently don't see much from them for now but you never know although just engine wise without the batteries, i think they might be better of than the Honda

Importantly the gap between the engines will be 20hp at max. However the ability to deploy continuously is where the money is at and my bet is on Honda but deploying mean nothing if its underpowered and overweight.

Ferrari with more power at high revs and good reliability would be only second best and Honda with the best ERS only 4th?

It doesn’t add up or maybe this is just that time of the year for any of us to post whatever.

[Ashwinv16]

Here's My Full 2026 Prediction Engines Wise Pecking order (i won't do Aero(team based) until the second test especially after what Ferrari did in 2019 and gave me falls hope)

• 1 - Mercedes - The compression trick is great and all but rumors is that it increases weight but due to the batteries every team could be overweight anyways so it might!? be negligible leaving them with more power based on simulations?! but reliability is a major issue with these i guess especially after the Alpine news. Battery systems not talked about much but mercs always been great since 2009 so wouldn't count on their battery system to have issues

• 2 - Ferrari - Steel heads mean a more variable option is in the works although many on the internet aren't noticing it. Basically at higher revs the engine will produce more power and well reliability as well. Almost every time there is a new regulation Ferrari always has turned up with the second best engine (you can go as far back as 1989(well 1995 for reliable comparison as 1989 is a point of contention). but like 1989 and 2014 weight could be an issue

• 3 - Ford - If they get half of what Mercedes achieves they will be the third best or it's 5th for them, a lot of stuff battery wise will be similar to the Honda due to their collaboration and powertrain buyouts without the indycar and lmdh know how's so honestly drivabitly is gonna be an issue i guess....

• 4 - Honda - Honda has said it' not doing well based of benchmarks in comparison to the compression trick simulation, and as far as I am aware they will be 15hp down regardless but their battery system will maintain an advantage from 2022 era along with some additional tech from their IndyCar ultracapacitors and yeh bosch systems used in lmdh in IMSA(the very reason Cadillac is joining as they found similarities between the techs and Honda comeback) that they are trying to benchmark and replicate closely in their batteries for efficiency and power delivery. You won't see the benefits in quali but it might be a lethal combo in the race despite regulation restricting energy usage AND FINALLY likely to be the only engine lower than the weight target (could struggle in Quali sensitive tracks or tracks with massive braking zones namely Monza during quali)

• 5 - Audi - I mean new engine supplier and with their only hybrid racing experience being in dakar recently don't see much from them for now but you never know although just engine wise without the batteries, i think they might be better of than the Honda

Importantly the gap between the engines will be 20hp at max. However the ability to deploy continuously is where the money is at and my bet is on Honda but deploying mean nothing if its underpowered and overweight.

Ferrari with more power at high revs and good reliability would be only second best and Honda with the best ERS only 4th?

It doesn’t add up or maybe this is just that time of the year for any of us to post whatever.

Its my predictions. Not what will happen. Also great ERS doesn't mean power just means the efficiency so consistent power.

[AR3-GP]

Apparently Audi will be one of the only teams that is underweight to start the season. Interesting.

iirc, Sauber was also the only team at the weight limit in 2022.

[dren]

Apparently Audi will be one of the only teams that is underweight to start the season. Interesting.

iirc, Sauber was also the only team at the weight limit in 2022.

I think they might surprise. Everyone keeps writing them off to be at the back with Cadillac.

[Emag]

Apparently Audi will be one of the only teams that is underweight to start the season. Interesting.

iirc, Sauber was also the only team at the weight limit in 2022.

I think they might surprise. Everyone keeps writing them off to be at the back with Cadillac.

I dont expect Audi to be frontrunners, but I also dont think they’ll be dead last either.

For Cadillac I am a bit more reserved. They’re starting fresh. But honestly, them being a solid but inconsistent midfield team like what Haas managed in 2016 wouldn’t be unrealistic.

Overall the budget cap makes it so that even backmarkers should theoretically not be miles off. Gaps to what we saw pre ground effect era between the top and the rest of the grid should not appear anymore.