2026 pecking order speculation

[the EDGE]

https://i.postimg.cc/LsytvFjX/image.png

I think we are still due at least 3 more Silverstone shakedowns. I'm just not sure which teams those are. Rumor is that 1 of the big teams is in trouble for Barcelona.

I'm really starting to wonder about Mclaren. They have posted a fire up video. They were the last team to announce their launch date. Did they have more important priorities? . Could they miss the Barcelona test?

McLaren also turned down an invitation from Woking town council for Lando to do a demo run in the town, claiming they were too focused on the season ahead

Everything will probably work out, but I get the sense that there is very little resting taking place in Woking right now.

They were listening

McLaren fire up…
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/mcla ... 26-f1-car/

And of course, I was just jesting

[AR3-GP]

McLaren also turned down an invitation from Woking town council for Lando to do a demo run in the town, claiming they were too focused on the season ahead

Everything will probably work out, but I get the sense that there is very little resting taking place in Woking right now.

They were listening

McLaren fire up…
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/mcla ... 26-f1-car/

And of course, I was just jesting

Fire up is a significant milestone. I don't think we have to worry about them anymore.

It's Mercedes and Williams with question marks. Mercedes didn't do a fire up video. They did their engine sound from the dyno in December.

[Emag]

Oh this thread has apparently been quite active, hadn't looked at it in a while.

Regardless of the fireup, McLaren have been quite innactive with the public this year which is not the norm with them usually. They tend to post random zoomed in photos of the car during assembly phase and they have done a fire up video pretty much every year in recent memory. The fact that they haven't done anything of the sort (also they were the last to announce their launch date), make me believe they could actually be in "rush mode".

Mercedes and Williams have been awfully quiet too though. Mercedes in particular also tends to do fireup videos with their new engines.

[gearboxtrouble]

Just my take, no special insight or anything new
1. McLaren - If Mercedes has the best engine then I'll pick the best Mercedes engined team.
2. Mercedes - Yet to prove they're contenders in a budget cap era after so much of their past success was because of a huge budget. Expect wins and good results but no real title contention again.
3. Ferrari - I think the doom and gloom is overdone, they switched to 26 early and will be up there at the front all season. Reliability and Lewis' performance will hold them back from title contention. Charles will have some bad luck that prevents him from challenging for the title.
4. Red Bull - The new engine will be unreliable initially but will be right up there on performance. Will be fighting at the front by the end of the season with multiple race wins including at least one before the summer break.
5. Williams - A step to the best of the rest but not enough to be a true front runner. Maybe 1 race win as a surprise.
6. Alpine - Gasly will have a great season but Colapinto isn't good enough to take it to Williams.
7. Aston Martin - Honda will be behind on performance early but will improve through the season to be at the front of the midfield by the end of it.
8. Haas - Similar to last year, signs of potential but also lack of consistency.
9. Racing Bulls - Solid car but weak driver lineup will hold them back.
10. Audi - Will start with a reliable engine thats down on power. Will improve after taking full advantage of AUDO to be fighting in the midfield in the 2nd half of the season.
11. Cadillac - Will fail to qualify for multiple early races and finish the season over a second off the next worst car.

[Jambier]

Just my take, no special insight or anything new
1. McLaren - If Mercedes has the best engine then I'll pick the best Mercedes engined team.
2. Mercedes - Yet to prove they're contenders in a budget cap era after so much of their past success was because of a huge budget. Expect wins and good results but no real title contention again.
3. Ferrari - I think the doom and gloom is overdone, they switched to 26 early and will be up there at the front all season. Reliability and Lewis' performance will hold them back from title contention. Charles will have some bad luck that prevents him from challenging for the title.
4. Red Bull - The new engine will be unreliable initially but will be right up there on performance. Will be fighting at the front by the end of the season with multiple race wins including at least one before the summer break.
5. Williams - A step to the best of the rest but not enough to be a true front runner. Maybe 1 race win as a surprise.
6. Alpine - Gasly will have a great season but Colapinto isn't good enough to take it to Williams.
7. Aston Martin - Honda will be behind on performance early but will improve through the season to be at the front of the midfield by the end of it.
8. Haas - Similar to last year, signs of potential but also lack of consistency.
9. Racing Bulls - Solid car but weak driver lineup will hold them back.
10. Audi - Will start with a reliable engine thats down on power. Will improve after taking full advantage of AUDO to be fighting in the midfield in the 2nd half of the season.
11. Cadillac - Will fail to qualify for multiple early races and finish the season over a second off the next worst car.

Agreed. Maybe Alpine with the weight rumor might beat Williams?

[Ashwinv16]

Here's My Full 2026 Prediction Engines Wise Pecking order (i won't do Aero(team based) until the second test especially after what Ferrari did in 2019 and gave me falls hope)

• 1 - Mercedes - The compression trick is great and all but rumors is that it increases weight but due to the batteries every team could be overweight anyways so it might!? be negligible leaving them with more power based on simulations?! but reliability is a major issue with these i guess especially after the Alpine news. Battery systems not talked about much but mercs always been great since 2009 so wouldn't count on their battery system to have issues

• 2 - Ferrari - Steel heads mean a more variable option is in the works although many on the internet aren't noticing it. Basically at higher revs the engine will produce more power and well reliability as well. Almost every time there is a new regulation Ferrari always has turned up with the second best engine (you can go as far back as 1989(well 1995 for reliable comparison as 1989 is a point of contention). but like 1989 and 2014 weight could be an issue

• 3 - Ford - If they get half of what Mercedes achieves they will be the third best or it's 5th for them, a lot of stuff battery wise will be similar to the Honda due to their collaboration and powertrain buyouts without the indycar and lmdh know how's so honestly drivabitly is gonna be an issue i guess....

• 4 - Honda - Honda has said it' not doing well based of benchmarks in comparison to the compression trick simulation, and as far as I am aware they will be 15hp down regardless but their battery system will maintain an advantage from 2022 era along with some additional tech from their IndyCar ultracapacitors and yeh bosch systems used in lmdh in IMSA(the very reason Cadillac is joining as they found similarities between the techs and Honda comeback) that they are trying to benchmark and replicate closely in their batteries for efficiency and power delivery. You won't see the benefits in quali but it might be a lethal combo in the race despite regulation restricting energy usage AND FINALLY likely to be the only engine lower than the weight target (could struggle in Quali sensitive tracks or tracks with massive braking zones namely Monza during quali)

• 5 - Audi - I mean new engine supplier and with their only hybrid racing experience being in dakar recently don't see much from them for now but you never know although just engine wise without the batteries, i think they might be better of than the Honda

Importantly the gap between the engines will be 20hp at max. However the ability to deploy continuously is where the money is at and my bet is on Honda but deploying mean nothing if its underpowered and overweight.

Well I guess I might be right about Honda https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/hond ... /10791279/

[gearboxtrouble]

Agreed. Maybe Alpine with the weight rumor might beat Williams?

I don't rate Colapinto highly. Gasly is fantastic but I can't see him taking the fight to Albon and Sainz by himself.

[FrukostScones]

panic in the paddock(prob. not):

https://forums.autosport.com/topic/2293 ... y-private/

But I think it will be a drama like 2014 and on top we have x to the z mode and ICE compression ratio saga.

2026 f1 season will be the biggest controversy since 2007. A shame because the cars look like F1 again.

[fourmula1]

I'm a little worried the racing will feel very unnatural...basically will be scripted by battery recovery, deployment, race mapping...

On the flip side I am hopeful that the lighter weight, smaller, less tire, less aero car will provide a bit more raw driving...but they will probably find plenty of tricks to get these cars to stick.

[FittingMechanics]

I'm a little worried the racing will feel very unnatural...basically will be scripted by battery recovery, deployment, race mapping...

On the flip side I am hopeful that the lighter weight, smaller, less tire, less aero car will provide a bit more raw driving...but they will probably find plenty of tricks to get these cars to stick.

I think that the deployment usage could lead to a lot of overtaking where you surprise your opponent with the deployment at a place you don't normally use it. Could lead to back and forth between cars. Hopefully it is fun.

[Emag]

I'm a little worried the racing will feel very unnatural...basically will be scripted by battery recovery, deployment, race mapping...

On the flip side I am hopeful that the lighter weight, smaller, less tire, less aero car will provide a bit more raw driving...but they will probably find plenty of tricks to get these cars to stick.

It's highly likely we will see some gimmicky stuff with drivers having turbo buttons to overtake and then end up getting overtaken the next straight again after depleting the battery.

But I am willing to give it the benefit of the doubt until we see these cars on action.

[AR3-GP]

I'm a little worried the racing will feel very unnatural...basically will be scripted by battery recovery, deployment, race mapping...

On the flip side I am hopeful that the lighter weight, smaller, less tire, less aero car will provide a bit more raw driving...but they will probably find plenty of tricks to get these cars to stick.

It's highly likely we will see some gimmicky stuff with drivers having turbo buttons to overtake and then end up getting overtaken the next straight again after depleting the battery.

But I am willing to give it the benefit of the doubt until we see these cars on action.

The detection point is only once per lap so it doesn’t flip to the advantage of the overtaken for another lap.

[Emag]

I'm a little worried the racing will feel very unnatural...basically will be scripted by battery recovery, deployment, race mapping...

On the flip side I am hopeful that the lighter weight, smaller, less tire, less aero car will provide a bit more raw driving...but they will probably find plenty of tricks to get these cars to stick.

It's highly likely we will see some gimmicky stuff with drivers having turbo buttons to overtake and then end up getting overtaken the next straight again after depleting the battery.

But I am willing to give it the benefit of the doubt until we see these cars on action.

The detection point is only once per lap so it doesn’t flip to the advantage of the overtaken for another lap.

Yes but I am assuming dumping the whole battery for an overtake leaves you a sitting duck on the next straight when the electric motor is half of your available total power.

[FittingMechanics]

I'm a little worried the racing will feel very unnatural...basically will be scripted by battery recovery, deployment, race mapping...

On the flip side I am hopeful that the lighter weight, smaller, less tire, less aero car will provide a bit more raw driving...but they will probably find plenty of tricks to get these cars to stick.

It's highly likely we will see some gimmicky stuff with drivers having turbo buttons to overtake and then end up getting overtaken the next straight again after depleting the battery.

But I am willing to give it the benefit of the doubt until we see these cars on action.

The detection point is only once per lap so it doesn’t flip to the advantage of the overtaken for another lap.

Detection point is for the override mode. Am I mistaken you can use your battery however you want in normal mode? You could easily change where you deploy it. Instead of using in logical places (start of big straights) you could save up a bit of battery and then dump it out of a corner to get alongside for the next corner, it doesn't have to be a big straight.

You'd be in a bad situation over the remainder of the lap but it could be used, for example if you are faster overall or if you are willing to push people off track.

[Ashwinv16]

I just watched a video of the Mercedes sounding like a literal air raid siren on start procedure i think everyone else is sooo cooked