SB15 wrote: ↑29 Jan 2026, 15:51
Badger wrote: ↑29 Jan 2026, 15:01
Mercedes have really embraced the "favourite" tag, leading session after session in both lap count and laptimes. But it may be giving a slightly false impression because it seems like all their main rivals have chosen to not show anything yet. I don't get the impression that McLaren, Red Bull, or Ferrari is struggling with anything in particular, certainly not like 2014, they just haven't gotten as far into their run plan.
I really don't like the "false impression", "testing means nothing", or "lap times in testing are meaningless" narrative. We've seen last year in Bahrain testing with the Mclaren's race pace was monumental while ending up dominating the first part of the season. In 2023, Redbull did a collected 400+ laps and clocked in the fastest lap with Sergio Perez and that car ended up dominating the entire season except for 1 race in Singapore, plus during that year the Aston Martin actually was performing quite well in testing and was better than expected during the first part of the season.
Let's also not forget in 2014 where the Mercedes engine was clearly the most reliable of the entire grid and the team logged in the most laps on the final day where "unsurprisingly" dominated the whole season.
I know the premise of false dawns and it's best to careful, and some teams aren't "showing their hand" which I completley agree with! But really we shouldn't conclusive to something that is "meaningless".
Mercedes doing a 200KM shakedown in the wet immediately after showing their car, and logging in the most laps with the fastest lap in the last 2 days of Barcelona testing, should not be understated. I don't think this is the whole story for the W17, so we'll see in Bahrain how it goes.
Testing can provide very good insights when you look at the available data objectively. In the last 10 years, we have generally had a pretty good idea on who was going to be at the top. If not 100% accurate, we could at the very least guess who would be towards the front of the pile.
However, the important bit to distinguish here is that you need the data in order to make these claims. Last year we literally had long run, stint and tire data that put McLaren as the team with the best race pace. It was tangible, with the usual caveats of not knowing how much everyone was holding back. But the signs were there.
This shakedown on the other hand is a completely closed off test where you can barely get a reliable lap count and tire information, let alone the rest of all the important stuff. If at Bahrain Mercedes shows that they're the clear best in comparable long run stints to the rest, then we will know with a higher degree of certainty on what to make of their performance.
From this test though? All we can know is that Mercedes is very reliable. You can't say with any degree of confidence on who is going to be at the top of the pecking order after this shakedown. What if Alpine goes tomorrow and sets a 1:16.5, will that change your perspective? These laptimes are acontextual because we know literally nothing about the circumstances in which they were set.
As for the bygone previous eras, when you mention 2014 in particular, they're completely irrelevant to how things are today. The sport is no longer the same and we have had 10 years of world development. Technology has moved on, the teams are better prepared.
