The laptimes are incredibly irrelevant for this shakedown. There's no data whatsoever.
Only 10 days to go though. Then we can start the "competitive speculation".
The post you replied to reads like a troll post to me. Mercedes looked more relaxed than anyone and they had no issue showing their "hand" by doing performance runs first, which to me says they have something in their back pocket
According to Mattia Binotto, an expert in F1 power unit design, a manufacturer can very well intentionally restrict its power unit to have just enough margin to win, without triggering the ADUO mechanism for its competitors. For us F1 fans, this compression ratio issue is detrimental to the sport, especially since this year it seems like there are at least five teams that can fight for victory in every race.
LMAO.
Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug.LM10 wrote: ↑31 Jan 2026, 19:33LMAO.
Firstly, his post was definitely not a troll post. Ferrari looking relaxed does not imply that Mercedes wasn’t relaxed as well.
Secondly, you know what’s funny? No matter what Ferrari does - most laps, no reliability issues, fastest lap or whatever - there is always some “but”. Mercedes does the fastest lap and suddenly it’s an explanation for them having “something in their back pocket”.
Oh man… I love this thread!
I also found this quite funny considering the reactions to each car:LM10 wrote: ↑31 Jan 2026, 19:33LMAO.
Firstly, his post was definitely not a troll post. Ferrari looking relaxed does not imply that Mercedes wasn’t relaxed as well.
Secondly, you know what’s funny? No matter what Ferrari does - most laps, no reliability issues, fastest lap or whatever - there is always some “but”. Mercedes does the fastest lap and suddenly it’s an explanation for them having “something in their back pocket”.
Oh man… I love this thread!
Oh ye of little faith. All you have to do is ask for an explanation. This is what the forum is for.
PlatinumZealot wrote: ↑31 Jan 2026, 19:54Oh ye of little faith. All you have to do is ask for an explanation. This is what the forum is for.
Do you know the trend Barcelona track times over different scenarios? Study the sport and you will understand that the time done by Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren are worthy of note and not to be brushed aside.
1).. Regulation maturity. ( 2026 basic development, 2025 mature development, 2022 basic development)
2). Track temperatures.
3) - Tyre choice
4).. Downforce level. (less than 2025)
5) Consider previous times done in recent years considering the above. This is mighty good for a shakedown.
As I said I do not care if Mercedes is sandbagging and has half a second in the pocket. We are firmly in the strike zone. Considering the program was comfortable completed and Leclerc did push laps and hamilton did pushlaps.
A bit too philosophical. We don’t have long run pace data, but even if we did it wouldn’t likely be run a full beans anyway.venkyhere wrote:Let me ask an even more 'stupid' question :
Do we know all the laptimes, from a closed off test ? How do we know whether 'some' laptimes are revealed/not ? What is the source of laptime data ? leaked by whom ?
You aren't being forced to hop onto this train, you know.Emag wrote: ↑31 Jan 2026, 20:09
And how exactly do you know?
- The regulation maturity is not something you can measure.
- The track temperature has a positive impact on laptime, because it was cold enough where it helps with tire temps but not too cold to the point where you can't get heat into them.
- Tire choice was the softest available for both of them, so it's not relevant to the discussion.
What exactly from this shakedown makes you know exactly how much slower than 2025 cars these cars are?
Are they 5 seconds slower? Then bang on, both cars pushed to the max and Ferrari was faster.
Are they 4 seconds slower? That just changes the picture totally. Now you need to answer who held back and how much did they hold back?
And if you go to the next second threshold then nothing is even worth discussing anymore.
Also, let's assume the fastest laps were set within a reasonable pace window. Do you have any longrun data to better judge each car? Did they both complete an actual race simulation where they pushed like they would on a race? Do you have stint lengths, tires used (+ tire age)? Do you have mean pace, standard deviation, fastest laps in a stint, degradation approximations, fuel loads?
There's nothing really.
What you consider mighty is skewed by laptimes that you saw being set. Because we don't know anything, it's equally likely that Mercedes was already at 100%, as well as that they have 1 second in the pocket. Or any other team. How do you know RedBull didn't heavily sandbag and they could have set a 1:15 if they wanted to?