2026 Pecking order predictions

[AR3-GP]

I also think Mclaren is in front of Mercedes.

[the EDGE]

After the barcelona shakedown, if we go add in the "preparedness" on top of the recency bias, I would put them on these tiers :

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari/RedBull
3. RedBull/McLaren -> Only because of the "overheating" rumors, not sure where to keep RedBull. But they're honestly unsubstantiated, so probably on the same tier as Ferrari. I am just generally expecting McLaren to start "slow" compared to the previous top 4.
4. Alpine
5. Haas/RacingBulls
6. Cadillac/Audi

Aston Martin ??
Williams ???

Biggest risk for Aston Martin and Honda will likely be reliability issues because AN is known for pushing things a little too far. Being Honda's only partner, its likely that Honda engine will be highly customized to AN's requirement. Other concern for AMR also its wind tunnel correlation at its new facility. So AMR can either be among the top teams, or at the bottom with likes of Cadillac and Audi if they runs into reliability issues.

People always talk about windtunnel correlation like the wind tunnel is somehow faulty. I've always been sceptical of this, and believe it's more likely that the teams interpretation of the results is where the problem lies, not the results themselves, and I'm sure Adrian will be all over this

[CHT]

After the barcelona shakedown, if we go add in the "preparedness" on top of the recency bias, I would put them on these tiers :

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari/RedBull
3. RedBull/McLaren -> Only because of the "overheating" rumors, not sure where to keep RedBull. But they're honestly unsubstantiated, so probably on the same tier as Ferrari. I am just generally expecting McLaren to start "slow" compared to the previous top 4.
4. Alpine
5. Haas/RacingBulls
6. Cadillac/Audi

Aston Martin ??
Williams ???

Biggest risk for Aston Martin and Honda will likely be reliability issues because AN is known for pushing things a little too far. Being Honda's only partner, its likely that Honda engine will be highly customized to AN's requirement. Other concern for AMR also its wind tunnel correlation at its new facility. So AMR can either be among the top teams, or at the bottom with likes of Cadillac and Audi if they runs into reliability issues.

People always talk about windtunnel correlation like the wind tunnel is somehow faulty. I've always been sceptical of this, and believe it's more likely that the teams interpretation of the results is where the problem lies, not the results themselves, and I'm sure Adrian will be all over this

The most accurate way to run wind tunnel is to put a real full size cars and parts in the tunnel, but that is not permitted. So when you have to make do with scale down model it will become more challenging

Also due to limited wind tunnel time allocation, if team can get it right first time and avoid wasting time to run repeat test, they will have extra time for other development. So correlation of wind tunnel is important.

[FittingMechanics]

To me, Mercedes and McLaren are clear favorites. Both are powered by what is expected to be the best power unit and both were fast last year. Mercedes looks great on paper because of trouble free test but McLaren came to the test without a 200km shakedown and did well. If they had their 200km shakedown before they would probably have 50-100 more laps and would look very impressive.

I've followed McLaren lap times and it looked like the car can extract lap time whenever they were out on track and that usually means the car is good.

I think Red Bull will have once again a car that Max can bring to the top but the other driver cannot.

My ranking would be
1-2. Mercedes - McLaren (with probably McLaren edging forward in Bahrain)
3. Red Bull (Max)
4. Ferrari

I didn't really follow teams lower than that.

[Emag]

These are the rankings by Sky, with Craig saying there's several people in the paddock who believe the top 4 is like this at the moment. I honestly don't remember them doing things like this before (or if they did I haven't seen them), so I have no idea how credible Craig's sources within the paddock are. Probably biased, but it popped on my feed so I am posting it here.



For those who don't want to see the video, this was the final ranking :

1. Mercedes
2. McLaren
3. RedBull
4. Ferrari (apparently Craig says Ferrari seems like a handful to drive)
5. Alpine
6. RacingBulls
7. Aston Martin (they have no idea though, they didn't run that much)
8. Haas
9. Audi
10. Cadillac
11. Williams (just because they didn't run)

[LM10]

That the Ferrari might be a handful to drive at the moment doesn’t matter at all. They will bring a heavily upgraded car to Bahrain or Melbourne.
Barcelona primarily was about reliability, correlation, systems checking.

The drivers and Vasseur seemed positive about the testing overall.

[bluechris]

These are the rankings by Sky, with Craig saying there's several people in the paddock who believe the top 4 is like this at the moment. I honestly don't remember them doing things like this before (or if they did I haven't seen them), so I have no idea how credible Craig's sources within the paddock are. Probably biased, but it popped on my feed so I am posting it here.



For those who don't want to see the video, this was the final ranking :

1. Mercedes
2. McLaren
3. RedBull
4. Ferrari (apparently Craig says Ferrari seems like a handful to drive)
5. Alpine
6. RacingBulls
7. Aston Martin (they have no idea though, they didn't run that much)
8. Haas
9. Audi
10. Cadillac
11. Williams (just because they didn't run)

Just don't bet on their ranking

[FNTC]

Mercedes, Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari at the front. Williams, Cadillac and Audi at the back. Seems likely for now. Aston is a wild card, could be anywhere from 1st to 7-8th. Impossible to know yet, due to the Honda engine uncertainty. They were lapping 4.3 seconds off the fastest with a limited top speed and no active front wing, so I think they might be in the mix for top 5.

[Vettel165]

My prediction

1. Red Bull
2. Mercedes
3. Mclaren
4. Ferrari
5. RacingBulls
6. Aston Martin
7. Alpine
8. Williams
9. Haas
10. Audi
11. Cadillac

[FrukostScones]

As the saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Guess we wont be seeing a repeat of Brawn F1 surprise this season.

I'm sticking with Alpine as the surprise package.

yes, I also think they could surprise.
Steve Nielsen sounded quite happy in the interview on the f1 channel 5th day.

[nitrotech]

As the saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Guess we wont be seeing a repeat of Brawn F1 surprise this season.

I'm sticking with Alpine as the surprise package.

yes, I also think they could surprise.
Steve Nielsen sounded quite happy in the interview on the f1 channel 5th day.

Right time for Christian Horner to step in with Alpine! Imagine, Horner and Zack Brown, both being customers of Toto Wolff and on one side for any PU related arguments!

[selvam_e2002]

These are the rankings by Sky, with Craig saying there's several people in the paddock who believe the top 4 is like this at the moment. I honestly don't remember them doing things like this before (or if they did I haven't seen them), so I have no idea how credible Craig's sources within the paddock are. Probably biased, but it popped on my feed so I am posting it here.



For those who don't want to see the video, this was the final ranking :

1. Mercedes
2. McLaren
3. RedBull
4. Ferrari (apparently Craig says Ferrari seems like a handful to drive)
5. Alpine
6. RacingBulls
7. Aston Martin (they have no idea though, they didn't run that much)
8. Haas
9. Audi
10. Cadillac
11. Williams (just because they didn't run)

should be:

1. Mercedes
2. McLaren
3. RedBull
4. Ferrari (apparently Craig says Ferrari seems like a handful to drive)
5. Alpine
6. RacingBulls
7. Williams (just because they didn't run)(as they have Mercedes engine)
8. Haas
9. Aston Martin (they have no idea though, they didn't run that much)
10. Audi
11. Cadillac

[CHT]

As the saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Guess we wont be seeing a repeat of Brawn F1 surprise this season.

I'm sticking with Alpine as the surprise package.

yes, I also think they could surprise.
Steve Nielsen sounded quite happy in the interview on the f1 channel 5th day.

they will be most improved team but not Brawn GP level of surprises..

[AR3-GP]

One of these is not like the others


Piastri:

“Obviously the car itself, it’s got a lot less downforce than what we had last year as well. So getting used to that and how that feel has been the biggest thing we’ve started to get ourselves into.”

https://lastwordonsports.com/motorsport ... es-engine/

Hadjar:

“These cars are different, very different, there is definitely a lot less load in general and it is a bit more predictable compared to the previous generation, they are a bit more straightforward. It is easier to play around with them and on the PU [power unit] side there are a lot more options for the driver to play with.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/isac ... /10794228/


Hamilton:

“In terms of just understanding the car and the balance, we have a lot less downforce than previous years. The car generation is actually a little bit more fun to drive – it’s oversteery, it’s snappy and sliding, but it’s a little bit easier to catch and I would definitely say more enjoyable.

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... 8oygxidYQ6

Russell:

"The car is feeling nice to drive, there are no major issues, and no porpoising, which is pretty good news for all of us.

https://racingnews365.com/george-russel ... cedes-test

[AR3-GP]

It sounds like the cars are going to have a lot less grip this year with the lack of downforce and the narrower tires. I would say that Norris and Verstappen are favored in these conditions. Leclerc and Piastri could potentially struggle.