2010 tyre strategy

[roost89]

I was thinking about this one my drive home:

What sort of strategies will be possible in 2010?

Will the drivers want to leave changing some tyres to later, so that they have a much bigger speed advantage over the others? Assuming the tyres will allow that big of an advantage to begin with.
Or will they want tyres earlier on? So that they can have more grip with the heavier car allowing to brake later and accelerate earlier.

Could we have a short first, long middle and short last stint? (assuming a 2 stop strategy)

[Roland Ehnström]

Changing tires earlier will allow you to gain time on those who stay out some extra laps, given that you don't get stuck in traffic. So they will run short first and second stints, followed by a longer final stint. This gives you the best position on the track after the final stop, after which that you "only" need to defend your position to the end. In a 60-lap race, I would expect pit-stops at around laps 17 and 35.

If they go for only one stop, I expect them to do it a few laps before half-distance, around lap 27 in a 60-lap race.

[ESPImperium]

Paddy Lowe at Mclaren has said that he expects 3 stoppers to become much more the norm, with drivers going Prime-Prime-Option-Prime for a normalised strategy.

I would recon that for more agressive drivers (Hamilton/Massa/Vettel) to go the 3 stopper route and more conservitive drivers (Button/Webber/Alonso) to do the traditional 2 stopper route. I think that theres gonna be 3 types of driver in 2010, the agressive ones, the moderate ones and the conservitive ones. The agressive ones will make good time on more open tracks like Bahrain and Turkey, the moderate ones will always be there but alas little or no cigar and the conservitive drivers will really make tracks like Hungaroring and Interlagos.

Im not shure yet, ill have to see what the cars are like when they are launched.

[lebesset]

despite what is often said about various drivers I think that there are three that are capable of adjusting their driving styles when different strategies are required due to the new tyre regs.

in alphabetical order

alonso
button
hamilton

given some sort of equality of car it should be a great , great , season ; all too often in the past there have been only one or two cars capable of winning ...next year maybe four
having said that I have felt that the last three years have produced worthy champions , was delighted to see kimi pip ham , ham pip massa , and jenson roar away then nearly get caught
next year I shall be happy to see massa shade it , much to my surprise he has developed into a fine driver , maybe not yet quite up to the standard of those I have listed but he is getting there !

we shall see

[mike]

if 1 team is about to run the tyres softly they could do a 1 prime long stint and soft for the finishing laps, assuming all the others have worse tyres than what you would have...

[pgj]

I was also thinking about tyre strategy too. Will teams run the engine lean at the start to protect tyres and reduce strain on an engine with a full fuel load?

[timbo]

if 1 team is about to run the tyres softly they could do a 1 prime long stint and soft for the finishing laps, assuming all the others have worse tyres than what you would have...

That would be my guess two. More pit-stops won't give you speed advantage if you can save tyres. More so, pit-stop time can go down to 4-5 from 9 seconds but remember that most time is lost in pit-entry and exit, so overall reduction won't be as drastic -- 22-25 seconds to 18-20.
So my guess - long first stint on prime tyre and than short sprint on options.

[CHT]

The biggest difference for next years is that car weight will get lighter and lighter after every lap, and I think that teams will most likely start with prime and end with the option. As for the no. of pit stop, it will most likely depends on the length of the circuit pit lane and the rate of tyre degradation.

One other question is, with the fuel stop is banned, will the car weight be heavier than this year, or will the team reduce the ballast to compensate for the additional fuel load?

[mike]

cars should weight about the same...
it all depends on how much rubber they can pick up is the final lap.
i do tend to think that some teams will go for a 2005 esque suspension design to keep the tyres running nicely.
we already seen 1 stop strategy this year that had alot of laps in the soft and that only translate to it is possibly to do it.
depending on how much slower you are on tyre saving mode, if 1 team is dominating i think 1 stop, with a short option stint in the end is the way to go

[gator]

I think strategy will be a track-by-track basis, based on surface conditions and pitlane entry/exit times. We saw at the end of the 2009 season at the UAE that the option tyre was slower than the prime.

If the team/driver can make the options work for a decent length of time on a full fuel load, I wouldn't be surprised to see them on the options at the start. There are few oportunities to pass as it is, and the start/restarts are crucial to finishing position.

During the course of testing for the weekend, the team should be able to figure out the best combination of fuel load and option tyre performace to try and gague how long the last stint of the race can be on the option tyres.

2 stop strategy:
-start: option: go until lap time suffers, hopefully near 25% into the race.
-pit#1: prime: go until pre-determined pit#2 window, hopefully near 75% into the race, lap can be adjusted based on conditions and other cars on track.
-pit#2: option: push like hell till the end of the race.


Although, I will agree that for most races we will see a prime-option one stop late in the race strategy for the race winner. I would just like to see someone make the gamble to start on options, and have it pay off for them.



The main thing is for Bridgestone to deliver compounds with a gap in performace. Super-softs and mediums for example. Otherwise, the time difference will be negligible and it will be harder for the cars on options to overtake cars going for a one stop strategy. Which will hurt both team strategies and the overtaking everyone wants to see.

I can't wait to find out, man it's going to be a looong winter...

[Roland Ehnström]

I strongly believe the one-stop strategies will be the other way around: Short stint on options first, then a long stint on primes. I'll try to show why with a simplified imaginary "race" between the two strategies:

Let's say that the drop-off in performance of the option tires is 2 tenths per lap while the drop-off of the primes is 1 tenth per lap, and that the option tires are 5 tenths per lap faster than the primes when they are fresh. Now imagine a 40-lap race between driver A and B, where A starts on options and pits for primes at the end of lap 15, while B starts on primes and pits for options at the end of lap 25. A pit-stop costs 25 seconds all-in-all. The following will be the projected time-difference between the cars during the race, where "+" means that A is leading, while "-" means that B is leading:

End of lap 1: +0.5 (A takes the lead on options)
End of lap 2: +0.9
End of lap 3: +1.2
End of lap 4: +1.4
End of lap 5: +1.5 (A has pulled out a small gap)
End of lap 6: +1.5
End of lap 7: +1.4
End of lap 8: +1.2
End of lap 9: +0.9 (A's options are starting to wear out, B is closing the gap)
End of lap 10: +0.5
End of lap 11: 0.0
End of lap 12: -0.6 (B takes over the lead)
End of lap 13: -1.3
End of lap 14: -2.1
End of lap 15: -28.0 (A pits for primes)
End of lap 16: -26.5 (Both drivers now on primes, but A's are 15 laps fresher, so A gains 1.5 seconds per lap)
End of lap 17: -24.0
End of lap 18: -22.5
End of lap 19: -21.0
End of lap 20: -19.5
End of lap 21: -18.0
End of lap 22: -16.5
End of lap 23: -15.0
End of lap 24: -13.5
End of lap 25: +13.0 (B pits for options)
End of lap 26: +11.5 (B now has stickier option tires, which are also 10 laps fresher than A's primes, the gap is closing rapidly)
End of lap 27: +10.1
End of lap 28: +8.8
End of lap 29: +7.6
End of lap 30: +6.5
End of lap 31: +5.5
End of lap 32: +4.6 (B is getting closer, but the options are now starting to wear out, will he make it?)
End of lap 33: +3.8
End of lap 34: +3.1
End of lap 35: +2.5
End of lap 36: +2.0
End of lap 37: +1.6
End of lap 38: +1.3
End of lap 39: +1.1
FINISH: +1.0 (A wins! Notice that this is the point where B is closest to A. If the race would go on for more than 40 laps, A would in fact start to pull away again)

Now this is only a limited mathematical model which you need to take with a big grain of salt, and in the end A only won the race by one second. But I hope you can see the big picture: B will be FAR behind A after they have both made their one and only pit-stop, so B has A LOT of work to do to win the race. B must close the gap before his options wear out, AND pull off a pass for position (and we all know how difficult that is), before the finish. All A has to do, on the other hand, is take care of the primes and, if needed, defend his position to the end - a much easier job. THIS is my point.

[raceman]

nice calculations Ronald =D>

good work to "simulate" an imaginary race



impressive

[ISLAMATRON]

The options dont even last 16 laps now with a lower fuel load and you think they will last 16 laps with a smaller front tire, plus 150kg+ of fuel and 20kg more ballast on board(and no rubber on track)? Not going to happen. Also anyone who puts the options on at the start will have to pit early and then will be mired in traffic(something your model fails to take into account). some at the back may start with options just to get rid of them if there is an early SC.

The (lead)drivers will drive to a predetermined pace set by the team and will stay out as long as they can keep that pace or until the driver immediatly behind them pits. None of this is new, we saw how no refueling worked back in the 80's & early 90's. It will be fluid and flexible, dependent on lap times, somewhat like a mixed conditions race, example Malaysia this year.

[Roland Ehnström]

raceman, thank you!

ISLAMATRON, yes, if you stop early you may end up in trafic and it could spoil your race. This is a calculated risk, and I also mentioned it in my first post in this thread. I also know that the options will take a bit of a beating in the first stint with that heavy fuel load, although this will surely wary a lot from one track to another.

There are many factors which can make one strategy or another the best in a particular race, which is why I am saying that you need to take my "imaginary race" with a big grain of salt. For example the "A" strategy can be helped a lot by a pace-car situation between lap 15 and 25, while the "B" strategy can be helped by a pace-car after lap 25 (but note that B still needs to make a pass on the track to win). The weather is of course another factor which could ruin any sound strategy...

What I'm trying to do, though, is to determine which strategy is likely to be the best more often than not. My conclusion is that because passing is extremely difficult in formula one, you'll definately want to be leading when everyone has made their final pit-stops, even if this means you have worse tires than everyone else in the final laps. Making a short first stint gives you this opportunity to gain time and positions in the crucial laps around the mid-way point of the race - those laps which usually determines who will win in the end.

Also remember that there are more than two cars in the race. If you have five competitive cars on the "A" strategy, you'll be STUCK in the final stint if you go with the "B" strategy. The B strategy gives you the best tires in the final stint, but you will have to pass those five "A-strategy" cars on the track in the final 15 laps to win - something I've never seen happen in F1 in the past 20 years. So the more cars that decide to start on options, the more likely it is that one of these cars will end up with the win...

[timbo]

Roland Ehnström
To draw more general conclusions you have to vary parameters a bit.
Also, degradation rates would be lap dependent. You should expect much lower degradation at the end of the race than at the start. That would make possible for earlier pitstop for the option tyre at the B strategy, and would force earlier pitstop for the A strategy, which can make B beneficial.
Also, everything may change dramatically as we don't know how 2010 tyres may behave.