2026 Pecking order predictions

[ali623]

General impression currently, based on data from the past 3 days:

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull (Max)
4. McLaren
----
5. Haas
6. Alpine
----
7. Audi
8. Williams
9. Racing Bulls
----
10. Cadillac
11. Aston Martin

[McFAN]

After the barcelona shakedown, if we go add in the "preparedness" on top of the recency bias, I would put them on these tiers :

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari/RedBull
3. RedBull/McLaren -> Only because of the "overheating" rumors, not sure where to keep RedBull. But they're honestly unsubstantiated, so probably on the same tier as Ferrari. I am just generally expecting McLaren to start "slow" compared to the previous top 4.
4. Alpine
5. Haas/RacingBulls
6. Cadillac/Audi

Aston Martin ??
Williams ???

I am still sticking to this prediction after the first test. Next week things could change as Ferrari, RedBull and Mercedes are all planning to bring upgrades. If McLaren sticks to their "word" and keeps the car the same for Australia, then I can definitely see them starting as the 4th package. For RedBull, I am inclined to put them on the same tier with Mercedes, but I will wait until next week. Perhaps we get some better more representative runs.

Which overheating rumours were you referring to in your original post btw?

[Emag]

After the barcelona shakedown, if we go add in the "preparedness" on top of the recency bias, I would put them on these tiers :

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari/RedBull
3. RedBull/McLaren -> Only because of the "overheating" rumors, not sure where to keep RedBull. But they're honestly unsubstantiated, so probably on the same tier as Ferrari. I am just generally expecting McLaren to start "slow" compared to the previous top 4.
4. Alpine
5. Haas/RacingBulls
6. Cadillac/Audi

Aston Martin ??
Williams ???

I am still sticking to this prediction after the first test. Next week things could change as Ferrari, RedBull and Mercedes are all planning to bring upgrades. If McLaren sticks to their "word" and keeps the car the same for Australia, then I can definitely see them starting as the 4th package. For RedBull, I am inclined to put them on the same tier with Mercedes, but I will wait until next week. Perhaps we get some better more representative runs.

Which overheating rumours were you referring to in your original post btw?

Autoracer made a post that claimed RedBull faced some overheating troubles in Barcelona. Nobody else commented on that though, so I am assuming it's nothing.

[kediown]

I am still sticking to this prediction after the first test. Next week things could change as Ferrari, RedBull and Mercedes are all planning to bring upgrades. If McLaren sticks to their "word" and keeps the car the same for Australia, then I can definitely see them starting as the 4th package. For RedBull, I am inclined to put them on the same tier with Mercedes, but I will wait until next week. Perhaps we get some better more representative runs.

Which overheating rumours were you referring to in your original post btw?

Autoracer made a post that claimed RedBull faced some overheating troubles in Barcelona. Nobody else commented on that though, so I am assuming it's nothing.

I think the comment was about RBPT Ford, it was unclear who had issues, whether RedBull or VCARB or both

[motobaleno]

General impression currently, based on data from the past 3 days:

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull (Max)
4. McLaren
----
5. Haas
6. Alpine
----
7. Audi
8. Williams
9. Racing Bulls
----
10. Cadillac
11. Aston Martin

I have nothing to say against this order. but it is not based on data from the past 3 days. Ferrari race sim was definetely faster than mercedes

[Emag]

I think it's based on the fact that Mercedes is not showing their power here in Bahrain like they did in Barcelona, possibly to try and fool the FIA regarding their advantage. Ferrari and RedBull drivers have both said the same things, basically Mercedes is hiding things.

[ali623]

General impression currently, based on data from the past 3 days:

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull (Max)
4. McLaren
----
5. Haas
6. Alpine
----
7. Audi
8. Williams
9. Racing Bulls
----
10. Cadillac
11. Aston Martin

I have nothing to say against this order. but it is not based on data from the past 3 days. Ferrari race sim was definetely faster than mercedes

It wasn't but anyway, I expect Mercedes to be quite dominant when we get to Australia either way. As Leclerc said today: 'Mercedes are hiding a massive amount'.

[Frank73]

I think it's based on the fact that Mercedes is not showing their power here in Bahrain like they did in Barcelona, possibly to try and fool the FIA regarding their advantage. Ferrari and RedBull drivers have both said the same things, basically Mercedes is hiding things.

Ferrari and Red Bull have an interest in establishing this narrative as much as Mercedes can have in sandbagging, and for the same reason. Likely, they are all hiding thingd more or less to same extent.

[upsidedowntoast]

General impression currently, based on data from the past 3 days:

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull (Max)
4. McLaren
----
5. Haas
6. Alpine
----
7. Audi
8. Williams
9. Racing Bulls
----
10. Cadillac
11. Aston Martin

I have nothing to say against this order. but it is not based on data from the past 3 days. Ferrari race sim was definetely faster than mercedes

It wasn't but anyway, I expect Mercedes to be quite dominant when we get to Australia either way. As Leclerc said today: 'Mercedes are hiding a massive amount'.

Would be interesting to see the true extent of the sandbagging from everybody, but if Mercedes is hiding a massive amount then so must be Mclaren, unless I'm missing something major?

[bluechris]

I have nothing to say against this order. but it is not based on data from the past 3 days. Ferrari race sim was definetely faster than mercedes

It wasn't but anyway, I expect Mercedes to be quite dominant when we get to Australia either way. As Leclerc said today: 'Mercedes are hiding a massive amount'.

Would be interesting to see the true extent of the sandbagging from everybody, but if Mercedes is hiding a massive amount then so must be Mclaren, unless I'm missing something major?

They are masters in this, they surely can give the 1st race in Melbourne to cool everyone down.

[upsidedowntoast]

It wasn't but anyway, I expect Mercedes to be quite dominant when we get to Australia either way. As Leclerc said today: 'Mercedes are hiding a massive amount'.

Would be interesting to see the true extent of the sandbagging from everybody, but if Mercedes is hiding a massive amount then so must be Mclaren, unless I'm missing something major?

They are masters in this, they surely can give the 1st race in Melbourne to cool everyone down.

It's the spider man meme with everyone pointing at each other. No one is the clear best, everyone has work to do.

From what I've seen in the past few days:
* There is probably truth in the power deployment advantage that RB have, because non-Merc-PU-team aligned third party data supports this.
* Ferrari have done wonderfully with their reliability so far and the race sim Charles put in Day 2 was probably the best in week 1 of testing. However lowerlaptime pointed out some control/sliding issues that seemed inherent to the car.
* Mclaren seem to be doing better than Mercedes with heat and tyre degradation (actually they seem to be doing better than everybody on that front). Honestly I'm pessimistic about Mercedes being best under any scenario, even if they get to keep the compression ratio trick.

[gearboxtrouble]

Would be interesting to see the true extent of the sandbagging from everybody, but if Mercedes is hiding a massive amount then so must be Mclaren, unless I'm missing something major?

They are masters in this, they surely can give the 1st race in Melbourne to cool everyone down.

It's the spider man meme with everyone pointing at each other. No one is the clear best, everyone has work to do.

From what I've seen in the past few days:
* There is probably truth in the power deployment advantage that RB have, because non-Merc-PU-team aligned third party data supports this.
* Ferrari have done wonderfully with their reliability so far and the race sim Charles put in Day 2 was probably the best in week 1 of testing. However lowerlaptime pointed out some control/sliding issues that seemed inherent to the car.
* Mclaren seem to be doing better than Mercedes with heat and tyre degradation (actually they seem to be doing better than everybody on that front). Honestly I'm pessimistic about Mercedes being best under any scenario, even if they get to keep the compression ratio trick.

I agree with these takes. I think McLaren are the team holding the most back atm. They didn't do much soft tire running and just pounded in the long runs all week. I do want to shout out Haas. I think they're ahead of Alpine and Williams at the head of the midfield. The car looks rock solid and without any flaws. Komatsu has been a phenomenal team principal and what they've accomplished these past few seasons has been beyond what anyone could have expected.

[FrukostScones]

1. Red Bull
2. McLaren / Mercedes
3. Ferrari / Haas
4. RBVCARB / Alpine / Williams
5. Audi / Cadillac

[AR3-GP]

1. Red Bull
2. McLaren / Mercedes
3. Ferrari / Haas
4. RBVCARB / Alpine / Williams
5. Audi / Cadillac

Is this the George Russell hotline?

My prediction is still unchanged

1) Mclaren
2) Mercedes
3) the rest.

[Paa]

I think it's based on the fact that Mercedes is not showing their power here in Bahrain like they did in Barcelona, possibly to try and fool the FIA regarding their advantage. Ferrari and RedBull drivers have both said the same things, basically Mercedes is hiding things.

Ferrari and Red Bull have an interest in establishing this narrative as much as Mercedes can have in sandbagging, and for the same reason. Likely, they are all hiding thingd more or less to same extent.

This narrative has been widely accepted and shared by pretty much everyone including Merc, until 1 week ago. So this is not something that is being established right now, rather it looks like some parties trying to demolish it.

1. Industry believes Merc is best.
2. Merc is under scrutiny with a chance of being nerfed.
3. Suddenly everybody from Merc camp (and only them!) starts praising Red Bull and talking like an underdog. The intensity is unnatural, and the certainty with which they speak about this is also strange. On everything else (performance gaps) they are ambiguous, the only thing they are absolutely certain about that the Red Bull engine is the best and far better to theirs.
4. Toto has a history of doing this. (2014 is well documented, TD39 in 2022 was also similar under safety reasons)

This is not proof, but the pattern is there.