2026 Pecking order predictions

[Fred]

I think it's based on the fact that Mercedes is not showing their power here in Bahrain like they did in Barcelona, possibly to try and fool the FIA regarding their advantage. Ferrari and RedBull drivers have both said the same things, basically Mercedes is hiding things.

Ferrari and Red Bull have an interest in establishing this narrative as much as Mercedes can have in sandbagging, and for the same reason. Likely, they are all hiding thingd more or less to same extent.

This narrative has been widely accepted and shared by pretty much everyone including Merc, until 1 week ago. So this is not something that is being established right now, rather it looks like some parties trying to demolish it.

1. Industry believes Merc is best.
2. Merc is under scrutiny with a chance of being nerfed.
3. Suddenly everybody from Merc camp (and only them!) starts praising Red Bull and talking like an underdog. The intensity is unnatural, and the certainty with which they speak about this is also strange. On everything else (performance gaps) they are ambiguous, the only thing they are absolutely certain about that the Red Bull engine is the best and far better to theirs.
4. Toto has a history of doing this. (2014 is well documented, TD39 in 2022 was also similar under safety reasons)

This is not proof, but the pattern is there.

It’s not only Mercedes and the teams they power talking about Red Bull. All the other teams, and also 3rd party analysts who aren’t align with any team, have noticed the exact same thing. It seems pretty clear that Red Bull’s energy recovery and deployment strategy is far better than everyone else’s. Whether or not that advantage is enough for Red Bull to be the quickest is another matter, but it seems pretty clear that they do have a sizeable advantage there and that’s not just something being made up by Toto to stop his engine from being nerfed.

This also doesn’t mean the rumours about the Mercedes engine aren’t true either. These 2 things aren’t mutually exclusive. Mercedes could have a huge engine advantage that may or may not see either them or McLaren ahead of everyone. That doesn’t mean Red Bull doesn’t have an advantage in their energy strategy. Frankly, the most likely scenario is that both of these things are true, but we just don’t know which one is a bigger advantage or if either have a huge advantage in general.

[AR3-GP]

It’s not only Mercedes and the teams they power talking about Red Bull. All the other teams, and also 3rd party analysts who aren’t align with any team, have noticed the exact same thing. It seems pretty clear that Red Bull’s energy recovery and deployment strategy is far better than everyone else’s.

No one can make a real comparison when some of the teams are sandbagging. Don't fall for the Mercedes ruse.

[upsidedowntoast]

Ferrari and Red Bull have an interest in establishing this narrative as much as Mercedes can have in sandbagging, and for the same reason. Likely, they are all hiding thingd more or less to same extent.

This narrative has been widely accepted and shared by pretty much everyone including Merc, until 1 week ago. So this is not something that is being established right now, rather it looks like some parties trying to demolish it.

1. Industry believes Merc is best.
2. Merc is under scrutiny with a chance of being nerfed.
3. Suddenly everybody from Merc camp (and only them!) starts praising Red Bull and talking like an underdog. The intensity is unnatural, and the certainty with which they speak about this is also strange. On everything else (performance gaps) they are ambiguous, the only thing they are absolutely certain about that the Red Bull engine is the best and far better to theirs.
4. Toto has a history of doing this. (2014 is well documented, TD39 in 2022 was also similar under safety reasons)

This is not proof, but the pattern is there.

It’s not only Mercedes and the teams they power talking about Red Bull. All the other teams, and also 3rd party analysts who aren’t align with any team, have noticed the exact same thing. It seems pretty clear that Red Bull’s energy recovery and deployment strategy is far better than everyone else’s. Whether or not that advantage is enough for Red Bull to be the quickest is another matter, but it seems pretty clear that they do have a sizeable advantage there and that’s not just something being made up by Toto to stop his engine from being nerfed.

This also doesn’t mean the rumours about the Mercedes engine aren’t true either. These 2 things aren’t mutually exclusive. Mercedes could have a huge engine advantage that may or may not see either them or McLaren ahead of everyone. That doesn’t mean Red Bull doesn’t have an advantage in their energy strategy. Frankly, the most likely scenario is that both of these things are true, but we just don’t know which one is a bigger advantage or if either have a huge advantage in general.

^This.

One last note. I think the trauma of another 2014-2021 style curbstomp haunts people, understandably, but the factors that led to that no longer exist. Mercedes had an unbelievable advantage going into 2014 because they started research on hybrid tech before everybody else -- and not just any hybrid tech but very specific rabbitholes like MGU-H that no other manufacturers spent much time on because the cost/reward was not enough. That head start was enough to carry them forward throughout all those years. Fast-forward to now and while they undoubtedly have the experience to field a strong engine, they no longer have that magic bullet, and many key personnel from that era have long since departed. Not to mention cost caps and the fact that they can't sell customer teams tuned-down weaker engines.

Ferrari have been memed a lot but even in 2022 they had a championship-contending car (failures in strategy and upgrades notwithstanding). Of the top four teams Mercedes has been the only one that was never seriously in championship contention even once throughout the entire ground-effect era. It's true they wasted 1.5/4 of those years pursuing an inherently faulty design, but Mclaren were much worse until they were and yet improved much more from 2023-2024.

Of course everyone is still very scared of the compression ratio trick, otherwise why would all the other teams be up in arms about it, but maybe they're looking in the wrong direction and Red Bull's focus on harvesting/deployment is the way to go.

To me right now the biggest advantages of the top 4 teams are:
1. Red Bull: the harvesting/deployment advantage, which might prove even more decisive than the compression ratio trick, we don't know
2. Mercedes: the compression ratio thing, which could still be nerfed
3. Mclaren: also the Mercedes PU thing. They have been nerfed on wind tunnel time compared to Mercedes, and yet I think organizationally they're still very strong and they're handling their nerf well by bringing a basic car and waiting to see how everyone else does before they plan their upgrades.
4. Ferrari: they've just been incredibly reliable, quietly putting in laps and solid race sims. And again, I understand why everyone has made fun of "next year will be our year" but in my opinion they've had the strongest preseason test so far. Barcelona was Mercedes-Ferrari-Mclaren-RedBull, Bahrain 1 was Ferrari-Mclaren/RedBull-Mercedes.

[Fred]

It’s not only Mercedes and the teams they power talking about Red Bull. All the other teams, and also 3rd party analysts who aren’t align with any team, have noticed the exact same thing. It seems pretty clear that Red Bull’s energy recovery and deployment strategy is far better than everyone else’s.

No one can make a real comparison when some of the teams are sandbagging. Don't fall for the Mercedes ruse.

Sure, they mightn’t be able to make a proper comparison and maybe my expectations of Red Bull having a better energy management system while Mercedes has a more powerful engine are incorrect. However, the point that I was addressing was that claim that no one else other than the Mercedes powered teams were noticing this. That’s just patently untrue. Maybe other teams and just jumping on board to have Red Bull slowed down, and maybe the journalists are jumping on board for free clicks, that can all also be true. However, it doesn’t change the fact that it’s not just Mercedes making these claims, even if they’re the original source, which is the point I’m refuting. The rest is all just speculation.

[catent]

Ferrari and Red Bull have an interest in establishing this narrative as much as Mercedes can have in sandbagging, and for the same reason. Likely, they are all hiding thingd more or less to same extent.

This narrative has been widely accepted and shared by pretty much everyone including Merc, until 1 week ago. So this is not something that is being established right now, rather it looks like some parties trying to demolish it.

1. Industry believes Merc is best.
2. Merc is under scrutiny with a chance of being nerfed.
3. Suddenly everybody from Merc camp (and only them!) starts praising Red Bull and talking like an underdog. The intensity is unnatural, and the certainty with which they speak about this is also strange. On everything else (performance gaps) they are ambiguous, the only thing they are absolutely certain about that the Red Bull engine is the best and far better to theirs.
4. Toto has a history of doing this. (2014 is well documented, TD39 in 2022 was also similar under safety reasons)

This is not proof, but the pattern is there.

It’s not only Mercedes and the teams they power talking about Red Bull. All the other teams, and also 3rd party analysts who aren’t align with any team, have noticed the exact same thing. It seems pretty clear that Red Bull’s energy recovery and deployment strategy is far better than everyone else’s. Whether or not that advantage is enough for Red Bull to be the quickest is another matter, but it seems pretty clear that they do have a sizeable advantage there and that’s not just something being made up by Toto to stop his engine from being nerfed.

This also doesn’t mean the rumours about the Mercedes engine aren’t true either. These 2 things aren’t mutually exclusive. Mercedes could have a huge engine advantage that may or may not see either them or McLaren ahead of everyone. That doesn’t mean Red Bull doesn’t have an advantage in their energy strategy. Frankly, the most likely scenario is that both of these things are true, but we just don’t know which one is a bigger advantage or if either have a huge advantage in general.

I don't think it is "pretty clear" that any team's PU is "far better" than any other team's based solely on 3 days of preseason testing.

Possible? Some signs? Murmurs? Sure.

"Pretty clear" can only be said after a race (or several).

[peewon]

^This.

One last note. I think the trauma of another 2014-2021 style curbstomp haunts people, understandably, but the factors that led to that no longer exist. Mercedes had an unbelievable advantage going into 2014 because they started research on hybrid tech before everybody else -- and not just any hybrid tech but very specific rabbitholes like MGU-H that no other manufacturers spent much time on because the cost/reward was not enough. That head start was enough to carry them forward throughout all those years. Fast-forward to now and while they undoubtedly have the experience to field a strong engine, they no longer have that magic bullet, and many key personnel from that era have long since departed. Not to mention cost caps and the fact that they can't sell customer teams tuned-down weaker engines.

Ferrari have been memed a lot but even in 2022 they had a championship-contending car (failures in strategy and upgrades notwithstanding). Of the top four teams Mercedes has been the only one that was never seriously in championship contention even once throughout the entire ground-effect era. It's true they wasted 1.5/4 of those years pursuing an inherently faulty design, but Mclaren were much worse until they were and yet improved much more from 2023-2024.

Of course everyone is still very scared of the compression ratio trick, otherwise why would all the other teams be up in arms about it, but maybe they're looking in the wrong direction and Red Bull's focus on harvesting/deployment is the way to go.

To me right now the biggest advantages of the top 4 teams are:
1. Red Bull: the harvesting/deployment advantage, which might prove even more decisive than the compression ratio trick, we don't know
2. Mercedes: the compression ratio thing, which could still be nerfed
3. Mclaren: also the Mercedes PU thing. They have been nerfed on wind tunnel time compared to Mercedes, and yet I think organizationally they're still very strong and they're handling their nerf well by bringing a basic car and waiting to see how everyone else does before they plan their upgrades.
4. Ferrari: they've just been incredibly reliable, quietly putting in laps and solid race sims. And again, I understand why everyone has made fun of "next year will be our year" but in my opinion they've had the strongest preseason test so far. Barcelona was Mercedes-Ferrari-Mclaren-RedBull, Bahrain 1 was Ferrari-Mclaren/RedBull-Mercedes.

I said it last year when Toto came out and aggressively defended the regulations even though it was clear the cars would be harvesting down the straights, which is comical for F1, that Mercedes have some trick up their sleeve and not just something small, something akin to split turbo because Toto was so desperate to not change anything in these farcical regs. I frankly dont even believe its 25hp. I think it might be more than that and not sure compression ratio is the only trick. I think there might be something to do with harvesting as well.

[Emag]

1. Red Bull
2. McLaren / Mercedes
3. Ferrari / Haas
4. RBVCARB / Alpine / Williams
5. Audi / Cadillac

Is this the George Russell hotline?

My prediction is still unchanged

1) Mclaren
2) Mercedes
3) the rest.

I don’t see McLaren leading to be honest. Even if Mercedes are hiding that much from the PU, it will be them who will start stronger, not McLaren. They’ve not shown anything particularly impressive this test. Charles also made a comment about McLaren being a bit harder to read. That’s probably because they expect them to be better. I think the answer is quite simple. They’re just behind the other 3 at the moment.

They had the least amount of wind tunnel hours, and the car looks like it was made in such a way that they would not be constrained, packaging-wise, to move towards any concept. I kind of expected it to go this way before this season started. Basically I thought McLaren were the least likely to come up with any “radical-looking” solution out of the top 4 and it was also likely for them to start slower compared to the rest.

If they will be able to develop with the same rate they managed in the last era, I do think they can bring themselves into contention at some point though. Possibly a 2024-like season is the best case scenario I can see for McLaren at the moment.

[De Wet]

The Race:

https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/bahr ... -2026-car/


Track side observations.

[stewie325]

If teams really are using conventional fuels during testing, then we haven't seen anything yet about the true pecking order.

Biofuels will have a significant impact on performance.

[Alo_Fan]

1. Red Bull
2. McLaren / Mercedes
3. Ferrari / Haas
4. RBVCARB / Alpine / Williams
5. Audi / Cadillac

AMR not making 107%?

[FrukostScones]

1. Red Bull
2. McLaren / Mercedes
3. Ferrari / Haas
4. RBVCARB / Alpine / Williams
5. Audi / Cadillac

AMR not making 107%?

that doesn't exist anymore or? No, just don't know where to put them, if Honda did it again and brought another GP2 engine to the party, then it looks dire.
But I think the car looks beautiful and rad, just the FW I don't like. But the rest, even the nose, lovely. Hopefully it won't give an e****** s**** to him again. If they can get the PU under control and up to power, sky is the limit, even this season.

[f1isgood]

If teams really are using conventional fuels during testing, then we haven't seen anything yet about the true pecking order.

Biofuels will have a significant impact on performance.

But why would they? That would be a waste of time and resources. How else will you judge reliability?

[stewie325]

If teams really are using conventional fuels during testing, then we haven't seen anything yet about the true pecking order.

Biofuels will have a significant impact on performance.

But why would they? That would be a waste of time and resources. How else will you judge reliability?

Because of costs. They're allowed to use non-compliant fuels during testing because of that.

Therefore, the sport’s governing body, according to Auto Motor und Sport, has taken the decision to allow the usage of non-compliant fuels for the three programmes [Barcelona and two in Bahrain respectively].
https://www.motorsportweek.com/2026/01/ ... ng-report/

[DDopey]

If the Merc engine comes out most powerful, and the 'trick' has not been clarified or dealt with, 2026 will never be regarded as a serious season. If any merc engine team comes out on top, it will always be because of the 'trick'.

[nitrotech]

If teams really are using conventional fuels during testing, then we haven't seen anything yet about the true pecking order.

Biofuels will have a significant impact on performance.

But why would they? That would be a waste of time and resources. How else will you judge reliability?

Because of costs. They're allowed to use non-compliant fuels during testing because of that.

Therefore, the sport’s governing body, according to Auto Motor und Sport, has taken the decision to allow the usage of non-compliant fuels for the three programmes [Barcelona and two in Bahrain respectively].
https://www.motorsportweek.com/2026/01/ ... ng-report/

I would hazard a guess that would be for back to back testing and understanding efficiency difference between the two fuels.