2026 Pecking order predictions

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nitrotech
nitrotech
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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DDopey wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 18:32
If the Merc engine comes out most powerful, and the 'trick' has not been clarified or dealt with, 2026 will never be regarded as a serious season. If any merc engine team comes out on top, it will always be because of the 'trick'.
The only fact is, there is a rumour. It doesn't matter what decision FIA takes or not, fans of other teams would be eternally unhappy if Mercedes or Mercedes powered team dominates the season. For them, rumour is enough to taint Mercedes. But the show will go on.

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AR3-GP
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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nitrotech wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 18:38
The only fact is, there is a rumour.
It is not a rumor. Toto wolff already confessed.
"It's a few horsepower....in England, you would say a couple, which is more like two and three," he said, when asked about the performance benefit he thinks Mercedes gets from the trick.
"If that governance were to vote for an engine regulation change, you just have to take it on the chin," he admitted.
"It is what it is. And obviously, in that case, it would be detrimental for all of the Mercedes powered teams."
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/why- ... tio-trick/
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f1isgood
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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stewie325 wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 17:46
f1isgood wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 15:59
stewie325 wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 13:23
If teams really are using conventional fuels during testing, then we haven't seen anything yet about the true pecking order.

Biofuels will have a significant impact on performance.
But why would they? That would be a waste of time and resources. How else will you judge reliability?
Because of costs. They're allowed to use non-compliant fuels during testing because of that.
Therefore, the sport’s governing body, according to Auto Motor und Sport, has taken the decision to allow the usage of non-compliant fuels for the three programmes [Barcelona and two in Bahrain respectively].
https://www.motorsportweek.com/2026/01/ ... ng-report/
Lol, this is actually hilarious. For "cost" reasons? :lol:
The FIA folds on a royal flush.

gearboxtrouble
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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f1isgood wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 19:36
stewie325 wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 17:46
f1isgood wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 15:59


But why would they? That would be a waste of time and resources. How else will you judge reliability?
Because of costs. They're allowed to use non-compliant fuels during testing because of that.
Therefore, the sport’s governing body, according to Auto Motor und Sport, has taken the decision to allow the usage of non-compliant fuels for the three programmes [Barcelona and two in Bahrain respectively].
https://www.motorsportweek.com/2026/01/ ... ng-report/
Lol, this is actually hilarious. For "cost" reasons? :lol:
Iirc cost had nothing to do with it. A fuel provider thought they just wouldn't have enough fuel ready in time for Barcelona. The associated manufacturer asked for an exemption to allow them to use some sort of non sustainable fuel in the event this was the case. This was granted as a temporary measure. I don't think Shell, BP or Exxon would have any sort of issue with this and Aramco pretty much didn't run in Barcelona so my guess is Petronas didn't have enough fuel for 4 teams ready in time for the shakedown but with Williams skipping the test, they probably didn't need to use the exemption. It would be stupid to not run the fuels the engines were designed for if you could.

https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... ologation/

f1isgood
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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gearboxtrouble wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 19:52
f1isgood wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 19:36
stewie325 wrote:
14 Feb 2026, 17:46


Because of costs. They're allowed to use non-compliant fuels during testing because of that.

Lol, this is actually hilarious. For "cost" reasons? :lol:
Iirc cost had nothing to do with it. A fuel provider thought they just wouldn't have enough fuel ready in time for Barcelona. The associated manufacturer asked for an exemption to allow them to use some sort of non sustainable fuel in the event this was the case. This was granted as a temporary measure. I don't think Shell, BP or Exxon would have any sort of issue with this and Aramco pretty much didn't run in Barcelona so my guess is Petronas didn't have enough fuel for 4 teams ready in time for the shakedown but with Williams skipping the test, they probably didn't need to use the exemption. It would be stupid to not run the fuels the engines were designed for if you could.

https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... ologation/
Makes a lot more sense. Thanks
The FIA folds on a royal flush.

FittingMechanics
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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Anyone not running 2026 fuels in Bahrain tests is not a serious PU manufacturer. I don't think anyone is using "regular" fuel.

I would say even in Barcelona it would be very unserious, the fuel is a big part of 2026 rules but I'm willing to let Barcelona go.

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AR3-GP
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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PU ranking:

Mercedes
Ferrari
RBPT
Audi
Honda
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gearboxtrouble
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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AR3-GP wrote:
15 Feb 2026, 07:22
PU ranking:

Mercedes
Ferrari
RBPT
Audi
Honda
Pretty much. I'd say the encouraging thing is there is no 2014 style dominance here. Mercedes, Ferrari and even RBPT all look to be within the same ballpark. Audi look better than expected while we haven't really seen the Honda's potential because of the gearbox and cooling limitations. Even if Mercedes are slightly ahead on the CR trickery I think the PUs are all close enough that by 2027, all of them (even Audi and Honda) will be equivalent and we'll go back to being an aero formula.

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continuum16
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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Even though we have only one test remaining and the first race is in just a few weeks, we still have the potential for major rules decisions to make a massive impact on the season, in terms of 1) Merc compression ratio 2) Ferrari start "advantage" and 3) Whatever Stella/McLaren lobby for on "safety" grounds. That being said, if there is no action on any of these items, I think to start the year it's:

Merc
Ferrari/Max
McLaren
Hadjar
—————
Haas/Alpine
—————
Williams/VCARB
Audi
—————
Cadillac/AMR

I think the most likely outcome is a Merc engine nerf and nothing else, in which case I would say it's:

Ferrari/Max/Merc
McLaren/Hadjar
—————
Haas
—————
Alpine/VCARB
Williams/Audi
—————
Cadillac/AMR

I don't personally believe "it's just a couple horsepower" as Toto says, but even in the event of a penalty/change the Merc car looks the most composed. McLaren I think would take the biggest hit, dropping from consistent podium threat to clear No. 4 team. Yes they had exceptional deg on some stints; however, Bahrain is probably one of the worst tracks for rear deg on the whole calendar because of the old pavement combined with a lot of traction. If that would lead to a significant pace advantage *anywhere* it should be here, and yet they are still behind.

Can't wait to be way off when everyone turns up with major updates for the last week of testing 8)
"You can't argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience"
- Mark Twain

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AR3-GP
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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Live update. There's been a development....

Ferrari
Mercedes
Mclaren
Red Bull
Alpine
the rest
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organic
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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AR3-GP wrote:
18 Feb 2026, 10:19
Live update. There's been a development....

Ferrari
Mercedes
Mclaren
Red Bull
Alpine
the rest
Year of the horse

SB15
SB15
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Joined: 15 Feb 2025, 22:47

Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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AR3-GP wrote:
18 Feb 2026, 10:19
Live update. There's been a development....

Ferrari
Mercedes
Mclaren
Red Bull
Alpine
the rest
I respect Ferrari fans having optimism every year lol

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AR3-GP
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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The Mercedes doesn't look that good in the heat compared to Ferrari imo.
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SB15
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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AR3-GP wrote:
18 Feb 2026, 12:34
The Mercedes doesn't look that good in the heat compared to Ferrari imo.
Based on what data? Antonelli stints on the long runs looked very promising in comparison :-s. Albeit we don’t really know fuel loads, engine setting or deployments.

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AR3-GP
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Re: 2026 Pecking order predictions

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SB15 wrote:
18 Feb 2026, 13:02
AR3-GP wrote:
18 Feb 2026, 12:34
The Mercedes doesn't look that good in the heat compared to Ferrari imo.
Based on what data? Antonelli looked very promising in comparison :-s
Antonelli looks like he's on lower fuel in his runs today compared to Leclerc. He had a few moments off the track and last week they struggled with setup. Russell said car was not as responsive as Barcelona due to track temp. Its only a snap shot though. Things can change again.
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