2026 Scuderia Ferrari HP F1 Team

[johnnycesup]

Yes - also the comparison between Kimi’s and Hamilton’s is false due to very different time of day. Lewis and George set fast laps close together and the Mercedes was just under 3 tenths quicker - it’s still faster but the gap wasn’t half a second and it could be explained lots of ways. Likewise, the Mercedes could be massively sandbagging and the real gap is even bigger but from the small amount of info we have, on the face of it it’s not a .5 gap.

I agree with all the caveats you are saying, but still, we are discussing how much faster Merc is, right? The times on the board say that Merc is likely faster, it's pretty hard to come with the conclusion that it's actually Ferrari.

I am very optimistic about Ferrari tho, Mercedes seems to be putting their chips into the "we just suck at the ground effect cars, now we're back" basket or maybe the "our engine is just better and we're the works team" basket, and I don't know if the second one will still be true when the season start, and the first one might be wishful thinking from Merc.

[f1316]

Yes - also the comparison between Kimi’s and Hamilton’s is false due to very different time of day. Lewis and George set fast laps close together and the Mercedes was just under 3 tenths quicker - it’s still faster but the gap wasn’t half a second and it could be explained lots of ways. Likewise, the Mercedes could be massively sandbagging and the real gap is even bigger but from the small amount of info we have, on the face of it it’s not a .5 gap.

I agree with all the caveats you are saying, but still, we are discussing how much faster Merc is, right? The times on the board say that Merc is likely faster, it's pretty hard to come with the conclusion that it's actually Ferrari.

I am very optimistic about Ferrari tho, Mercedes seems to be putting their chips into the "we just suck at the ground effect cars, now we're back" basket or maybe the "our engine is just better and we're the works team" basket, and I don't know if the second one will still be true when the season start, and the first one might be wishful thinking from Merc.

I think the thing for me is that the Ferrari seems to look less planted - and yet still in the ballpark, with really good longer runs that are already on a par despite the issues (we don’t have Charles’ full data though). So that makes me think that there could be more potential, especially if the reason is more about power delivery and could potentially be solved with software.

[ryaan2904]

Rumors say Charles could move to Aston if Ferrari fails to deliver. After 10 years of waiting for a title, this is what I get to hear lol

https://scuderiafans.com/charles-lecler ... ari-fails/

[upsidedowntoast]

I personally am not sure what makes the Merc that much better *objectively*. The main reasons I see that makes them the favorites are:

1. New PU reg change, and everyone is getting 2014 flashbacks. Never mind that the circumstances that allowed 2014 no longer exist (hybrid tech being new to everyone but Merc, selling tuned down engines to their customers, cost cap/dev tokens, etc.)
2. Works team advantage, never mind that Mclaren has a much closer working relationship this time / a seat at the engine design table.
3. The compression ratio rumors, which we don't even know if it will be banned or nerfed, or how much of an advantage it really is compared to aero, battery, or shorter startup sequence.

The hype currently seems very nebulous to me. Simply based on testing, Mclaren seem to have better tyre degradation, RB have better energy deployment/harvesting/low gear ratio stability, and Ferrari have the best overall long stint race sim and seem more reliable in general.

[Seanspeed]

I can't understand how anybody can really think Ferrari is the best after a test where the fastest lap was Mercedes by more than half a second, and in the race simulations the Mercedes was faster by a significant margin as well. The only thing Ferrari did clearly better than Merc was total distance.

The onboard of Antonelli's lap made it look way more planted than the Ferrari as well. That's probably more worrying from my perspective. Both Russell and Antonelli have also generally been pretty open with praise about their car's handling.

[ScuderiaLeo]

Autoracer posted a new article with some info but the translations I've seen on X don't really make sense.. does someone have access to the original who can share the info paraphrased? (I know they don't allow direct quotes)

Also here is the schedule for week 2

Weds: Lec
Thurs: Ham
Fri AM: Ham
Fri PM: Lec

[Fakepivot]

Autoracer posted a new article with some info but the translations I've seen on X don't really make sense.. does someone have access to the original who can share the info paraphrased? (I know they don't allow direct quotes)

Also here is the schedule for week 2

Weds: Lec
Thurs: Ham
Fri AM: Ham
Fri PM: Lec

Ferrari seem to have adopted redbull style, one driver for the hole day.. maybe there still lot of engine setting and car setup to fiddle around

[catent]

Rumors say Charles could move to Aston if Ferrari fails to deliver. After 10 years of waiting for a title, this is what I get to hear lol

https://scuderiafans.com/charles-lecler ... ari-fails/

This article was published 2 months ago, FYI.

[ryaan2904]

Rumors say Charles could move to Aston if Ferrari fails to deliver. After 10 years of waiting for a title, this is what I get to hear lol

https://scuderiafans.com/charles-lecler ... ari-fails/

This article was published 2 months ago, FYI.

guess i missed it then

[ryaan2904]

I think Ferrari will win this year. They've got that quiet confidence.

[Jambier]

It seems that they have made good choices with the turbo, they also only used 1 engine for all testing, so reliability is incredibly good !

Seems like a very good starting point for this season, then I believe in season dev will be crucial so let's see but for now I don't see any red flag.

So I hope at least multiple wins for both drivers

[LM10]

I can't understand how anybody can really think Ferrari is the best after a test where the fastest lap was Mercedes by more than half a second, and in the race simulations the Mercedes was faster by a significant margin as well. The only thing Ferrari did clearly better than Merc was total distance.

The onboard of Antonelli's lap made it look way more planted than the Ferrari as well. That's probably more worrying from my perspective. Both Russell and Antonelli have also generally been pretty open with praise about their car's handling.

Can as well simply be explained by setup. Mercedes might have worked out their setup already or generally be an easy to setup car and Ferrari might not be (for now).
I’d even argue that it’s not a bad sign for Ferrari to be fast while still having some balance issues and once they’re solved, they might gain even more pace.

[organic]

The "I'll move to Aston Martin if Ferrari can't win" play doesn't ring so loud with their current state/engine.

[Seanspeed]

I can't understand how anybody can really think Ferrari is the best after a test where the fastest lap was Mercedes by more than half a second, and in the race simulations the Mercedes was faster by a significant margin as well. The only thing Ferrari did clearly better than Merc was total distance.

The onboard of Antonelli's lap made it look way more planted than the Ferrari as well. That's probably more worrying from my perspective. Both Russell and Antonelli have also generally been pretty open with praise about their car's handling.

Can as well simply be explained by setup. Mercedes might have worked out their setup already or generally be an easy to setup car and Ferrari might not be (for now).
I’d even argue that it’s not a bad sign for Ferrari to be fast while still having some balance issues and once they’re solved, they might gain even more pace.

Been my experience observing F1 car behavior is that this sort of stuff tends to be more fundamental. Baseline setup through the testing and work in simulator and whatnot should already be fair enough to represent the car to some reasonable degree. It's not very common for a car to go from having some clear handling issues to totally clearing them up via setup changes unless they were like totally out of the tire window or something. You're usually fighting an uphill battle of compromises.

It is still early days though, sure. New parts, different track characteristics, different conditions(Kimi's lap was on Day 3, while Leclerc's was Day 2) in combination with playing more with setup and understanding the car better can certainly make a difference to this stuff.

[SoulPancake13]

I can't understand how anybody can really think Ferrari is the best after a test where the fastest lap was Mercedes by more than half a second, and in the race simulations the Mercedes was faster by a significant margin as well. The only thing Ferrari did clearly better than Merc was total distance.

The onboard of Antonelli's lap made it look way more planted than the Ferrari as well. That's probably more worrying from my perspective. Both Russell and Antonelli have also generally been pretty open with praise about their car's handling.

Can as well simply be explained by setup. Mercedes might have worked out their setup already or generally be an easy to setup car and Ferrari might not be (for now).
I’d even argue that it’s not a bad sign for Ferrari to be fast while still having some balance issues and once they’re solved, they might gain even more pace.

I'd also like to add that we've seen Max Verstappen win 3 out of 4 titles in this past regulation with a car that was on an absolute knife edge and that his teammates couldn't come close to handling. Ultimately, if the car is fast over one lap and the race distance, then it doesn't totally matter.