I agree, there are many things we don't know. And it's something that's also happening with the other teams: they're all testing, and nothing is guaranteed for Australia. It wouldn't be the first time that the standouts in preseason don't perform as well in the first few races. Or that the team that was hidden in preseason shines.
Our friend Diffuser posted an interesting topic: the ADUO program and its regulations. I hope it won't be necessary, although on the other hand, I think it might be on AM's agenda as an emergency or confirmation option, because they've said several times that the idea is to make progress at each race to arrive at the halfway point of the season well-prepared and with podium chances. We would have to wait six races first, and that's a long time. Then, we'd have to be successful with the modifications (another 3-6 races). We'd be halfway through the season. I don't know if it's a coincidence. Maybe they have ADUO as a "plan B."
At first glance, and without meaning to be negative, what's happening is the result of rushing to form a new team. They haven't even done enough laps with the cars, something basic and essential. The wind tunnel is apparently also "under construction." And they have little data because they haven't done enough laps.
But digging a little deeper, we find the AN-Honda paradox. The former wants its super-zero size, and the latter wants guaranteed space to dissipate heat, I think. They'll have to find common ground. To get out of this impasse, the easiest thing would be to widen the rear to improve cooling, I think. Although this would lead to the corresponding modification of the rear wing, and so on. Perhaps Newey has to sacrifice perfection to be able to test the engine and transmission.
Then there are the delicate issues with the movable wings (the front ones, when closed, seem to create noticeable turbulence); the cooling system with its peculiar curved radiators, made in AN (related to the AN/Honda situation regarding size); finding a solid solution for the gearbox... and the rear suspension, anchored to the gearbox cassette, which needs to be checked... also related to the issue of widening the car... and which is certainly peculiar... I'm concerned about the rear suspension because of its great importance and in the few images I've seen of the AM26... how the car behaves strangely...
It could turn out that if AN gives in a little and Honda makes a little more effort; the gearbox/transmission is improved... and -above all- we do 200 more laps to start... things could change a lot !
The issue of front wings and their effect on steering (when they "close" before the corner) must also affect other teams. I've heard it mentioned in relation to AM: "the drivers say they affect the racing line, that the car moves around and is unpredictable." That could be true; they're aerodynamic brakes and have never been tested in F1. I liked it when Pagani adopted them because I also like airplanes; it made sense. But in F1... we'll see. They might have to be of a specific shape or function.
