2026 Pecking order predictions

[Badger]

Yes you can, which laps in particular did you want to check?

How do you do that?

Each lap that you click is added to an analysis queue. So just go into the individual sessions and choose laps. They will all end up in one queue that you can "analyze".

https://i.postimg.cc/qqDPdQpp/image.png

Yeah but mine "unselect" after I switch session.

[AR3-GP]

How do you do that?

Each lap that you click is added to an analysis queue. So just go into the individual sessions and choose laps. They will all end up in one queue that you can "analyze".

https://i.postimg.cc/qqDPdQpp/image.png

Yeah but mine "unselect" after I switch session.

Same. I don't think it was like that before. The feature probably got lost in the site updates.

[Emag]

Each lap that you click is added to an analysis queue. So just go into the individual sessions and choose laps. They will all end up in one queue that you can "analyze".

https://i.postimg.cc/qqDPdQpp/image.png

Yeah but mine "unselect" after I switch session.

Same. I don't think it was like that before. The feature probably got lost in the site updates.

Yeah I was doing a lot of things after the test today I ended up breaking a bunch of unrelated crap. Code has gotten messy and it's easy to ruin things without noticing. It should be okay now though, I just tested it.

[Emag]

And on the topic of comparing, quite interesting how McLaren (with Oscar) found almost 4 tenths in T10 alone from Day 3 of Test 1 to today. Lowered the fuel load a bit today or just better setup? First part of the lap looks nearly identical to put it to fuel though.

[AR3-GP]

Yeah but mine "unselect" after I switch session.

Same. I don't think it was like that before. The feature probably got lost in the site updates.

Yeah I was doing a lot of things after the test today I ended up breaking a bunch of unrelated crap. Code has gotten messy and it's easy to ruin things without noticing. It should be okay now though, I just tested it.

Thanks! The site is also running much faster. Edit: maybe that's just when looking at first test.

[Emag]

Same. I don't think it was like that before. The feature probably got lost in the site updates.

Yeah I was doing a lot of things after the test today I ended up breaking a bunch of unrelated crap. Code has gotten messy and it's easy to ruin things without noticing. It should be okay now though, I just tested it.

Thanks! The site is also running much faster. Edit: maybe that's just when looking at first test.

If you give it some time after a session ends, normally it starts caching things in the background because the data wont change anymore. If the requests are slow, it's only going to be slow the first time someone makes a "new" request. The second time it should pull directly from the cache instead of polling FastF1 stuff and that's why it becomes faster.

[AR3-GP]

Ferrari’s entire rear end was designed for exhaust blowing. No one is going to compete with them in the corners. Leclerc’s apex speeds from his best lap in the morning session are faster than what Russell did in the night session on a cooler track.



The question is going to be if Merc’s PU is enough to overhaul this.

[AR3-GP]

“It seems like the gap to the top teams, the four teams that used to lead last year, has increased,” Sainz contritely commented in a video posted by Williams on social media, “and it’s going to require a lot of hard work over the next few months, the next few races, going into the first part of the season, to try and recover that gap.”

Meanwhile, asked if the likes of Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes were going to dominate again, Ocon replied: “I would like to respond something else to you. But, at the moment, the top four are well locked. Where you saw last year the top 10 within three, four tenths in some races, now I think the top eight is maybe within three, four tenths – but after that, it's seconds away, I think.

Ocon and Sainz are saying the gap behind the top 4 teams is huge. Possibly seconds away. 2014 redux.
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/midf ... /10798412/

[Badger]

Ferrari’s entire rear end was designed for exhaust blowing. No one is going to compete with them in the corners. Leclerc’s apex speeds from his best lap in the morning session are faster than what Russell did in the night session on a cooler track.

https://i.postimg.cc/MG4RNdZC/image.png

The question is going to be if Merc’s PU is enough to overhaul this.

That’s premature. People are getting hyped up by the association to the exhaust blowing of the last decade. That was another beast entirely, with thirsty NA engines where you could release high energy exhaust gases exactly where you wanted them. Nowadays all the components are kind of placed for you, the exhaust has to sit on top of the crash structure, and the exhaust carries far less energy from a lean turbo engine. There’s also other compromises with this solution, weight and potential back pressure being ones that come to mind.

[nitrotech]

Ferrari’s entire rear end was designed for exhaust blowing. No one is going to compete with them in the corners. Leclerc’s apex speeds from his best lap in the morning session are faster than what Russell did in the night session on a cooler track.

https://i.postimg.cc/MG4RNdZC/image.png

The question is going to be if Merc’s PU is enough to overhaul this.

Here is a video simulation available on X, where a comparison was made between fastest laps from Kimi, Lewis, Oscar and Max. You will see what's going on. Kimi breaks early in almost every corner, but get loads of traction out of it. I think they are exploring which strategy is better. Going faster into the corner or slower. Not sure if it's there is a huge difference in downforce levels among these cars or that Ferrari carries significant advantage with their trick. This is early days and this simulation shows, recovering energy pays off better. At least for now.

[AR3-GP]

Ferrari’s entire rear end was designed for exhaust blowing. No one is going to compete with them in the corners. Leclerc’s apex speeds from his best lap in the morning session are faster than what Russell did in the night session on a cooler track.

https://i.postimg.cc/MG4RNdZC/image.png

The question is going to be if Merc’s PU is enough to overhaul this.

Here is a video simulation available on X, where a comparison was made between fastest laps from Kimi, Lewis, Oscar and Max. You will see what's going on. Kimi breaks early in almost every corner, but get loads of traction out of it. I think they are exploring which strategy is better. Going faster into the corner or slower. Not sure if it's there is a huge difference in downforce levels among these cars or that Ferrari carries significant advantage with their trick. This is early days and this simulation shows, recovering energy pays off better. At least for now.

I think that video is last week's test. Maybe I'm blowing it out of proportion, but imo Ferrari has a gamechanger.

[Chuckjr]

All teams will bring upgrades all the way to first race. Ferrari is obviously starting to show some series parts in their aero hand. Others, like Audi did with their wild side pods, will do the same all the way to race one. The team that has advantage first 6 races will be hard to beat as we have seen many times before (like last year).

Looking at the outstanding comparison video above, it seems to/from apex there is going too be HUUUUUUGE speed disparity between cars and should lead to some hair raising moves around the apex due to incredibly different battery deployment strategies. To find the silver in the lining, that speed disparity between PU's with this hybrid system will be pretty spectacular. We have never seen that level of difference between cars. I think also quick squirt passes where passes have never been possible before will start to happen from power delivery alone. Hoping for the best.

[Emag]

Ferrari’s entire rear end was designed for exhaust blowing. No one is going to compete with them in the corners. Leclerc’s apex speeds from his best lap in the morning session are faster than what Russell did in the night session on a cooler track.

https://i.postimg.cc/MG4RNdZC/image.png

The question is going to be if Merc’s PU is enough to overhaul this.

Here is a video simulation available on X, where a comparison was made between fastest laps from Kimi, Lewis, Oscar and Max. You will see what's going on. Kimi breaks early in almost every corner, but get loads of traction out of it. I think they are exploring which strategy is better. Going faster into the corner or slower. Not sure if it's there is a huge difference in downforce levels among these cars or that Ferrari carries significant advantage with their trick. This is early days and this simulation shows, recovering energy pays off better. At least for now.

I think that video is last week's test. Maybe I'm blowing it out of proportion, but imo Ferrari has a gamechanger.

If they are building these visualizations using timestamp based alignment, and I know for a fact that at least one popular channel does this because I have shared my own delta calculation and alignment algorithm with them privately, then the result is not truly accurate when presented in a 3D representation. The issue is that this method does not account for interpolation drift caused by the different sample rates of each lap, so the cars can appear misaligned when you try to "force" them into one common start/finish line in the same lap like this.

In any case, I agree with you about Ferrari. I also think people were focusing too much on Mercedes and their PU, while Ferrari has introduced some very clever solutions over the last few days that do not look easy to replicate. We might be looking at a repeat of 2017, where Ferrari has the edge in downforce and grip, while Mercedes holds the advantage in peak power.

[Vettel165]

People forgetting about Red Bull and Max as the dark horse… They will suprise a lot of people in a positive way in terms of pace in few weeks. Mark my words.

[Seanspeed]

People forgetting about Red Bull and Max as the dark horse… They will suprise a lot of people in a positive way in terms of pace in few weeks.

Piastri and Verstappen are both doing race sims as we speak.

The Mclaren is over half a second faster a lap, easily.

Not definitive, but that's a pretty huge gap even for testing.